主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
　　　中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2008, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 131-136.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色周期关联度模型及其应用研究

施红星1,2, 刘思峰1, 方志耕1, 张娜1   

  1. 1. 南京航空航天大学航空航天大学, 江苏南京210016;
    2. 汽车管理学院, 安徽蚌埠233011
  • 收稿日期:2007-05-10 修回日期:2008-05-05 出版日期:2008-06-30 发布日期:2008-06-30
  • 作者简介:施红星(1976- ).男(汉族),江苏南通人,南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,讲师,研究方向:灰色系统理论管理工程等.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(70473037、70701017);教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目(07JHQ0053);江苏省高等学校首批优秀科技创新团队基金;南京航空航天大学创新集体和科研创新基金项目(Y0488-091);江苏省哲学社会科学基金(07EYA017)

The Model of Grey Periodic Incidence and Their Rehabilitation

SHI Hong-xing1,2, LIU Si-feng1, FANG Zhi-geng1, ZHANG Na1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China;
    2. Bengbu College of Automobile Management, Bengbu 233011, China
  • Received:2007-05-10 Revised:2008-05-05 Online:2008-06-30 Published:2008-06-30

PDF (PC)

1029

被引次数

34

摘要： 灰色关联模型从统计序列几何形状的接近性和相似程序来判断其紧密程度,传统的灰色关联模型从统计序列的面积、斜率、变化速率等角度来计算其关联程度,这些关联模型受到统计序列横纵坐标(周期和振幅)的双重影响,这在分析统计序列间的单个因素间的关系时会产生其它因素的干扰。针对这一缺陷,本文提出了周期关联度模型,研究仅受周期因素影响的关联模型,证明该模型只与波形的波动周期和方向有关,不受曲线振幅的影响,且能表示出正负相关性,并应用该模型研究了GDP与居民消费间的周期关联性,取得了良好的效果。

关键词: 灰色, 周期, 关联模型

Abstract: Grey incidence model determines the closeness degree from the closeness and similarity of statistical sequence's geometrical form.Traditional grey incidence model calculates statistical sequence's correlation degree from the perspectives of its acreage,slope,changing velocity,etc.These incidence models have dual influences exerted by horizontal and vertical coordinates.Subsequently,inference of other factoys occurs when we analyze the relationship between statistical sequence's individual factors.To overcome this limitation,the author puts forward the periodic correlation model and draws the conclusion that the model is in reference to the fluctuation period of the wave,but is independent of its swing,and that it can show the positive-negative relevance.This model is then applied to carry out a research into the periodical relationship between GDP and residential consumption,which comes out to be an effective one.

Key words: grey, periodic, relationship model

中图分类号: