关键词: 大数据驱动, 复杂系统管理, 情景建模, 建模技术, 建模流程

Abstract:

In order to break through the complexity integrity of complex system management activities， based on the characteristic that management activities generate and evolve scenarios at any time point in the past， present， and future， using scenarios as a starting point， modeling complex system management scenarios to reproducing the past scenarios， reconstructing the current scenarios， and predicting the future scenarios of complex systems are used to provide practical guidance for complex system management activities. Based on the theoretical similarity between big data and scenarios， the concept and connotation of big data-driven complex system management scenario modeling are analyzed and it is clarified that big data-driven complex system management scenario modeling is the concept of big data-driven implementation of complex system management scenario modeling. Starting from the scenario dataset composed of big data collected or recorded through observation or experimental methods， reverse modeling is carried out. Six key technologies are proposed for this modeling process， including scenario structuring， big data transformation of scenario data， kernel scenario extraction， scenario cultivation， scenario verification， and federated modeling. A specific modeling process is designed， including exploratory analysis-conceptual scenario construction-data scenario construction-kernel scenario construction-computational scenario construction-scenario generation and verification， providing a basis for the implementation and application of scenario modeling in complex system management.

Key words: big data driven, complex system management, scenario modeling, modeling technique, modeling process