关键词: 农业中间消耗, 农业全要素生产率, 影响因素, 空间溢出效应

Abstract: Agriculture is an important basic industry of the national economy. Under the traditional agricultural production and management mode,the quality and allocation efficiency of China's agricultural input factors have been at a low level for a long time, resulting in high agricultural production costs,low profits,and low income of farmers. Improving Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (ATFP) is not only an urgent need for the transformation of agricultural economic development mode,but also the key to the transition from a large agricultural country to a strong agricultural country. ATFP is mainly used to measure agricultural growth attributing to technological progress and organizational innovation. An increasing ATFP means the shifting of development mode from relying mainly on capital,labor,and land to relying mainly on technological advancement,factor allocation,and institutional mechanisms.
Increasing the intermediate consumption of agriculture will help increase the output of agricultural products,activate the agricultural production materials market,and clarify the role of agricultural intermediate consumables in the ATFP,which is crucial for the transformation of the agricultural economic development mode.
The agricultural intermediate consumables are introduced, the ATFP of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1999 to 2016 is calculated through LP method,and the key factors affecting ATFP are analyzed based on the SDM model. It is found that:(1)ATFP generally showed an upward trend during the sample period,and there was σ convergence in the growth of ATFP. After 2000, the coefficient of variation of ATFP decreased,and the internal gap became narrowed,reaching "valley bottom" in 2011. (2)The ATFP global Moran's I index is lower than 0,which is significant at the level of 1%,that is,ATFP presents a spatial negative correlation,and the overall trend shows a downward trend,which indicates that the spatial agglomeration effect of China's agricultural development has weakened in recent years,and the spatial distribution of ATFP's pattern is relatively stable and there have been no major changes. (3)The overall change in the growth rate of ATFP in most of the 30 provinces and cities showed an obvious "∧" type,that is,the trend of rising first and then falling,multiple peaks appear in some provinces,especially in the western provinces. (4)Rural human capital and rural financial development level will help to improve ATFP in the region and surrounding areas,but agricultural status,agricultural internal economic structure and farmland disaster rate are not conducive to upgrading ATFP.
The contributions of the current ATFP-related research are as follows:Firstly, the LP method is used to measure TFP so as to avoid the defects of the DEA method and the stochastic frontier analysis method,and avoid the assumption of technological advancement exogenous and scale return. Secondly,it is incorporated into the intermediate consumables in the agricultural production process,which fully displays the overall agricultural production activities in China and effectively meets the transferability of agricultural production. In addition, spatial econometric models are used to construct a framework that affects China's ATFP,and then their specific role is decomposed in promoting ATFP growth and possible spatial effects.

Key words: agricultural intermediate consumption, agricultural total factor productivity, influencing factors, space spillover effect