基于后悔理论和DEMATEL的语言型多属性决策方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.06.019

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对目前语言型多属性决策方法大多基于期望效用理论且不考虑指标间影响关系的不足，提出了一种将后悔理论和决策试验与评价试验法相结合的语言型多属性决策方法。首先，依据后悔理论的思想，定义了语言后悔-欣喜函数，给出了方案感知效用值的计算公式；然后，利用决策试验与评价试验法分析指标间的影响关系，给出了基于语言DEMATEL的指标权重确定方法，再通过指标总容量最大优化模型给出了基于注水原理的指标权重确定方法，并在此基础上求解方案的综合感知效用值，据此对方案进行排序择优；最后，通过两个应用实例来验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。实例结果表明，由于该方法同时考虑了决策者的心理行为和指标间的影响关系，因此可使决策结果更加贴近现实且更为可靠。

关键词: 多属性决策, 后悔理论, 决策试验与评价试验法, 感知效用, 注水原理

Abstract: In the face of some complex multiple-attribute decision-making problems, the decision maker prefers to give linguistic evaluation information such as good, medium, bad, et al, and therefore linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem occurs. Linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem can be seen everywhere in real life, and has attracted considerable attention from domestic and overseas experts and scholars in recent years. However, so far the linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making methods are mostly based on expected utility theory, and do not consider the influence relationships among indexes. To overcome these defects, a new linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making method that combines the regret theory, Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is proposed, in which the decision maker’s regret aversion behavior and the influence relationships among indexes are considered. Firstly, a linguistic regret-rejoice function is defined on the base of the regret theory and the computational formula of perceived utility value is given. Secondly, the index weights based on linguistic DEMATEL are calculated through analyzing the influence relationships among indexes, and the index weights based on water-filling theory are calculated through a programming model that is constructed by the maximum total capacity of index, then the comprehensive perceived utility value is obtained, through which we can rank the alternatives. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The results show that this method is more practical and reliable as it considers the decision maker’s psychological behavior and the influence relationships among indexes. This paper expands the study of the traditional linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making method, and provides an important reference and guidance for solving linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making problem.

Key words: multiple attribute decision making, regret theory, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, perceived utility, water-filling theory

中图分类号:

C934

张发明, 王伟明. 基于后悔理论和DEMATEL的语言型多属性决策方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2020, 28(6): 201-210.

ZHANG Fa-ming, WANG Wei-ming. A New Linguistic Multiple Attribute Decision Making Method Based on Regret Theory and DEMATEL[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(6): 201-210.

参考文献

[1] Figueira J, Greco S, Ehrgott M. Multiple criteria decision analysis:State of the art surveys[M]. New York:Springer, 2005.
[2] 廖虎昌,缑迅杰,徐泽水.基于犹豫模糊语言集的决策理论与方法综述[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2017,37(1):35-48.
[3] Zadeh L A. The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning PartⅠ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ[J]. Information Sciences, 1975, 8(4):301-357.
[4] Herrera F, Martinez L. A 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic representation model for computing with words[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2000, 8(6):746-752.
[5] Xu Zeshui. Uncertain linguistic aggregation operators based approach to multiple attribute group decision making under uncertain linguistic environment[J]. Information Sciences, 2004, 168(1-4):171-184.
[6] Wei Guiwu. Extension of TOPSIS method for 2-tuple linguistic multiple attribute group decision making with incomplete weight information[J]. Knowledge and Information Systems, 2010, 25(3):623-634.
[7] Zhang Fengyi, Luo Li, Liao Huchang, et al. Inpatient admission assessment in West China Hospital based on hesitant fuzzy linguistic VIKOR method[J]. Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, 2016, 30(6):3143-3154.
[8] Wu Yunna, Geng Shuai, Zhang Haobo, et al. Decision framework of solar thermal power plant site selection based on linguistic Choquet operator[J]. Applied Energy, 2014, 136:303-311.
[9] Zhu Jianjun, Wang Hehua, Ye Chen, et al. Project evaluation method using non-formatted text information based on multi-granular linguistic labels[J]. Information Fusion, 2015, 24:93-107.
[10] Liao Huchang, Xu Zeshui, Zeng Xiaojun. Hesitant fuzzy linguistic VIKOR method and its application in qualitative multiple criteria decision making[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2015, 23(5):1343-1355.
[11] Wan Shuping, Xu Gaili, Dong Jiuying. Supplier selection using ANP and ELECTRE II in interval 2-tuple linguistic environment[J]. Information Sciences, 2017, 385-386:19-38.
[12] Kahneman D, Tversky A. Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk.[J]. Econometrica, 1979, 47(2):263-291.
[13] Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J]. Operations Research, 1982, 30(5):961-981.
[14] Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory:An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty[J]. Economic Journal, 1982, 92(368):805-824.
[15] 张晓,樊治平,陈发动.基于后悔理论的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践, 2013,33(9):2313-2320.
[16] 徐明姣,周岩.零售商长期后悔规避的供应链网络动态均衡[J].中国管理科学,2018,26(5):109-117.
[17] 韩菁,叶顺心,柴建,等.基于后悔理论的混合型多属性案例决策方法[J].中国管理科学, 2016,24(12):108-116.
[18] Gabus A, Fontela E. World problems, an invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL[R]. Working Paper, Switzerland Geneva Battelle Geneva Research Centre,1972.
[19] Fontela E, Gabus A. DEMATEL:Progress achieved[J]. Futures, 1974, 6(4):361-363.
[20] Michnik J. Weighted influence non-linear gauge system(WINGS)-An analysis method for the systems of interrelated components[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 228(3):536-544.
[21] Yang Y P O, Shieh H M, Tzeng G H. A VIKOR technique based on DEMATEL and ANP for information security risk control assessment[J]. Information Sciences, 2013, 232(5):482-500.
[22] Buyukozkan G, Guleryuz S. An integrated DEMATEL-ANP approach for renewable energy resources selection in Turkey[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2016, 182:435-448.
[23] Csaszar F A, Eggers J P. Organizational decision making:An information aggregation view[J]. Management Science, 2013,59(10):2257-2277.
[24] Zhou Wei, Xu Zeshui. Generalized asymmetric linguistic term set and its application to qualitative decision making involving risk appetites[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2016, 254(2):610-621.
[25] 戴跃强,徐泽水,李琰,等.语言信息评估新标度及其应用[J].中国管理科学,2008,16(2):145-149.
[26] Quiggin J. Regret theory with general choice sets[J]. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1994, 8(2):153-165.
[27] Bleichrodt H, Cillo A, Diecidue E. A quantitative measurement of regret theory[J]. Management Science, 2010, 56(1):161-175.
[28] 张世涛,朱建军,刘小弟.方案对多维偏好信息下基于后悔理论的群决策方法[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(S1):33-41.
[29] Xu Zeshui. Linguistic decision making:Theory and methods[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2012.
[30] Wu K J, Liao C J, Tseng M L, et al. Exploring decisive factors in green supply chain practices under uncertainty[J]. International Journal of Production Economics, 2014, 159:147-157.
[31] Wu H H, Tsai Y N. A DEMATEL method to evaluate the causal relations among the criteria in auto spare parts industry[J]. Applied Mathematics & Computation, 2011, 218(5):2334-2342.
[32] Tzeng G H, Huang C Y. Combined DEMATEL technique with hybrid MCDM methods for creating the aspired intelligent global manufacturing & logistics systems[J]. Annals of Operations Research, 2012, 197(1):159-190.
[33] 赵辉,严爱军,王普.基于权重阈值寻优的案例推理分类器特征约简[J].控制理论与应用, 2015,32(4):533-539.
[34] 陈志旺,王小飞,邵玉杰,等.三参数区间数多属性决策的后悔理论方法[J].控制理论与应用,2016,33(9):1214-1224.
[35] 刘卫锋,常娟,杜迎雪.(语言)Heronian平均算子及其决策应用[J].中国管理科学,2017, 25(4):174-183.
[36] 弓晓敏,耿秀丽,孙绍荣.基于二元语义DEMATEL和DEA的多属性群决策方法[J]. 计算机集成制造系统,2016,22(8):1992-2000.
[37] 余高锋,李登峰,叶银芳,等.考虑后悔规避的异质多属性变权决策方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(1):154-161.
[38] 胡军华,陈晓红,刘咏梅.基于语言评价和前景理论的多准则决策方法[J].控制与决策, 2009,24(10):1477-1482.