中国管理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (2): 94-105.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1840
尹亚华1, 吴恒煜2, 朱福敏1
收稿日期:
2019-11-14
修回日期:
2020-04-03
出版日期:
2022-02-20
发布日期:
2022-02-20
通讯作者:
February,2022
E-mail:wuhengyu@163.com
基金资助:
YIN Ya-hua1, WU Heng-yu2, ZHU Fu-min3
Received:
2019-11-14
Revised:
2020-04-03
Online:
2022-02-20
Published:
2022-02-20
Contact:
吴恒煜(1970-),男(汉族),广东雷州人,暨南大学管理学院,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:金融工程和金融经济学,Email:wuhengyu@163.com.
E-mail:wuhengyu@163.com
Supported by:
摘要: 关于VIX时间序列及其期权定价研究较多,但源于日历时间与内在时间视角的研究较少。本文考虑到投资者对均值回复的认知情绪,应用布朗运动与调和稳态过程分别拟合日历时间与内在时间带来的波动,构建基于调和稳态多类均值回复模型对VIX期权定价展开研究。研究结果表明,考虑投资者对VIX认知情绪后构建基于调和稳态的均值回复情绪模型能较好地拟合VIX指数的尖峰厚尾的现象,更能抓住一般结构性模型刻画不理想的非对称跳、有偏、局部均值回复等新的随机特征,并验证了模型不是越复杂越好的结论。
中图分类号:
尹亚华, 吴恒煜, 朱福敏. 基于均值回复模型的VIX期权定价——源于日历时间与内在时间的视角[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(2): 94-105.
YIN Ya-hua, WU Heng-yu, ZHU Fu-min. VIX Option Pricing Based on Mean Reverting Model——From the Perspective of Calendar Time and Intrinsic Time[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(2): 94-105.
[1] Whaley R E. Derivatives on market volatility[J]. The Journal of Derivatives, 1993, 1(1): 71-84. [2] Demeterfi K, Derman E, Kamal M, et al. A guide to volatility and variance swaps[J]. Journal of Derivatives, 1999, 6(4): 9-32. [3] Carr P, Madan D. Option pricing, interest rates and risk management[M]. London: Cambridge University Press, 2001. [4] Luo Xinguo, Zhang J E. The term structure of VIX[J]. The journal of Futures Markets, 2012, 32(12): 1092-1123. [5] Luo Xingguo, Zhang Jin E, Zhang Wenjun. Instantaneous squared VIX and VIX derivatives[J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 2019, 39(10): 1193-1213. [6] Bardgett C, Gourier E, Leippold M. Inferring volatility dynamics and risk premia from the S&P 500 and VIX Aarkets[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2019, 131(3): 593-618. [7] Goard J, Mazur M. Stochastic volatility models and the pricing of VIX options[J]. Mathematical Finance, 2012, 23(3): 439-458. [8] Mencía J, Sentana E. Valuation of VIX derivatives[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2013, 108(2): 367-391. [9] Grunbichler A, Longstaff F A. Valuing futures and options on volatility[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 1996, 20(6): 985-1001. [10] Detemple J, Osakwe C. The valuation of volatility options[J]. Review of Finance, 2000, 4(1): 21-50. [11] Barletta A, Nicolato E. Orthogonal expansions for VIX options under affine jump diffusions[J]. Quantitative Finance, 2018, 18(6): 951-967. [12] Hao Jinji, Zhang Jin’e. GARCH option pricing models, the CBOE VIX, and variance risk premium[J]. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2013, 11(3): 556-580. [13] Liu Qiang, Guo Shuxin, Qiao Gaoxiu. VIX forecasting and variance risk premium: A new GARCH approach[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2015, 34: 314-322. [14] Huang Hunghsi, Lin Shinhung, Wang Chiuping. Reasonable evaluation of VIX options for the Taiwan stock index[J]. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, 48: 111-130. [15] Park Y. The effects of asymmetric volatility and jumps on the pricing of VIX derivatives[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 192(1): 313-328. [16] Lin Wei, Li Shenghong, Chern S, et al. Pricing VIX derivatives with free stochastic volatility model[J]. Review of Derivatives Research, 2019, 22: 41-75. [17] Zhang Jine, Zhu Yingzi. VIX futures[J]. Journal of Futures Markets, 2006, 26(6): 521-531. [18] Dotsis G, Psychoyios D, Skiadopoulos G. An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2007, 31(12): 3584-3603. [19] Madan D B. Pricing options on mean reverting underliers[J]. Quantitative Finance, 2017, 17(4): 497-513. [20] Hurst S R, Platen E, Rachev S T. Option pricing for a logstable asset price model[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 1999, 29(10): 105-119. [21] Wu Liuren. Dampened power law: Reconciling the tail behavior of financial security returns[J]. Journal of Business, 2006, 79(3): 1445-1473. [22] Kim Y S, Rachev S T, Bianchi M L, et al. Tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible GARCH models[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2010, 34(9): 2096-2109. [23] Kim Y S, Rachev S T, Bianchi M L, et al. Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2011, 35(8): 1879-1891. [24] 刘志东, 陈晓静. 无限活动纯跳跃Lévy金融资产价格模型及其CF-CGMM参数估计与应用[J]. 系统管理学报, 2010, 19(4): 71-81.Liu Zhidong, Chen Xiaojing. Infinite activity pure jump lévy rrocess for financial assets price and its estimation by characteristic function based on GMM with a continuum of moment conditions[J]. Journal of Systems & Management, 2010, 19(4): 71-81. [25] 刘志东, 刘雯宇. Lévy过程驱动的非高斯OU随机波动模型及其贝叶斯参数统计推断方法研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(8): 1-9.Liu Zhidong, Liu Wenyu. The non Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models driven by the general lévy process and its bayesian inference[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(8): 1-9. [26] 刘志东, 刘雯宇, 阮禹铭. Lévy过程驱动非高斯OU随机波动率下的期权定价[J]. 管理科学学报, 2019, 22(1): 22-48.Liu Zhidong, Liu Wenyu, Ruan Yuming. Option pricing in non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic volatility processes driven by the Lévy process[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2019, 22(1): 17-43. [27] 鲍群芳, 陈思, 李胜宏. VIX期权定价与校正[J]. 金融理论与实践, 2012(4): 67-70.Bao Qunfang, Chen Si, Li Shenghong. VIX option pricing and correction[J]. Financial Theory & Practice, 2012(4): 67-70. [28] 周海林, 吴鑫育. 基于VIX的波动率风险溢价估计[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(S1): 365-374.Zhou Hailin, Wu Xinyu. Estimation of the volatility risk premium based on VIX[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2013, 21(S1): 365-374. [29] 柳向东, 杨飞, 彭智. 随机波动率模型下的VIX期权定价[J]. 应用数学学报, 2015, 38(2): 285-292.Liu Xiangdong, Yang Fei, Peng Zhi. The VIX option pricing based on stochastic volatility models[J]. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, 2015, 38(2): 285-292. [30] 王骋翔, 李胜宏, 胡文彬, 等. VIX期权的状态转换随机波动率定价模型[J]. 高校应用数学学报A辑, 2015, 30(3): 347-354.Wang Chengxiang, Li Shenghong, Hu Wenbin, et al. Pricing VIX option under Heston stochastic volatility model with regime switching[J]. Applied Mathematics: A Journal of Chinese Universities, 2015, 30(3): 347-354. [31] 尹亚华, 吴恒煜, 庞若宁, 等. ⅤⅨ期权定价—基于随机参数的仿射调和稳态模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2020, 40(10): 2530-2545.Yin Yahua, Wu Hengyu, Pang Ruoning, et al. VIX option price — Applied by affine models with tempered stable processes and stochastic parameter[J]. Systems Engineering — Theory & Practice, 2020, 40(10): 2530-2545. [32] 尹亚华, 吴恒煜, 朱福敏. 基于调和稳态均值回复模型的VIX期权定价[J]. 系统工程学报 2021, 36(5): 653-667.Yin Yahua, Wu Hengyu, Zhu Fumin. VIX option pricing based on mean reverting model with tempered stable processes[J]. Journal of Systems Engineering, 2021, 36(5): 653-667. [33] 史永东, 李竹薇, 陈炜. 中国证券投资者交易行为的实证研究[J]. 金融研究, 2009, 353(11): 129-142.Shi Yongdong, Li Zhuwei, Chen Wei. Empirical study on the trading behavior of Chinese Securities Investors[J]. Financial Research, 2009 353(11): 129-142. [34] 池丽旭, 庄新田. 投资者的非理性行为偏差与止损策略—处置效应、参考价格角度的实证研究[J]. 管理科学学报, 2011, 14(10): 54-66.Chi Lixu, Zhuang Xintian. Investors’ irrational behavior deviation and stop loss strategy — An empirical study from the perspective of disposal effect and reference price[J]. Journal of Management Science in China, 2011, 14(10): 54-66. [35] 俞乔, 刘家鹏. 系统性风险控制与动态逆势投资研究[J]. 经济研究, 2013, 48(2): 68-82.Yu Qiao, Liu Jiapeng. Research on systematic risk control and dynamic contrarian investment[J]. Economic Research, 2013, 48(2): 68-82. [36] 刘维奇,刘新新.个人和机构投资者情绪与股票收益—基于上证A股市场的研究[J]. 管理科学学报, 2014, 17(3): 70-87.Liu Weiqi, Liu Xinxin. Individual and institutional investor sentiment and stock returns — A study based on shanghai stock exchange A-share market[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2014, 17(3): 70-87. [37] 俞红海, 李心丹, 耿子扬. 投资者情绪、意见分歧与中国股市IPO之谜[J]. 管理科学学报,2015, 18(3): 78-89.Yu Honghai, Li Xindang, Geng Ziyang. Investor sentiment, disagreement and the mystery of IPO in China’s stock market[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2015, 18(3): 78-89. [38] 曾燕, 康俊卿, 陈树敏. 基于异质性投资者的动态情绪资产定价[J]. 管理科学学报, 2016, 19(6): 87-97.Zeng Yan, Kang Junqing, Chen Shumin. Dynamic emotional asset pricing based on heterogeneous investors[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2016, 19(6): 87-97. |
[1] | 郭冉冉,叶五一,刘小泉,缪柏其. 商品期货投资组合与市场收益的尾部相依研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(10): 11-19. |
[2] | 韩鑫韬,张晓敏,刘星. 宏观审慎管理配合下的最优货币政策选择[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(10): 1-10. |
[3] | 成思聪,王天一. 引入隔夜信息的期权定价模型研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(9): 1-10. |
[4] | 吴鑫育,谢海滨,马超群. 经济政策不确定性与人民币汇率波动率[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 1-14. |
[5] | 谢楠,何海涛,周艳菊,王宗润. 乡村振兴背景下基于中央政府项目补贴分析的供应链金融决策研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 214-229. |
[6] | 于孝建,刘国鹏,刘建林,肖炜麟. 基于LSTM网络和文本情感分析的股票指数预测[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 25-35. |
[7] | 倪宣明,郑田田,赵慧敏,武康平. 基于最优异质收益率因子的资产定价研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(8): 50-60. |
[8] | 于文华,任向阳,杨坤,魏宇. 传染病不确定性对大宗商品期货价格波动的非对称影响研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(5): 254-264. |
[9] | 蔡毅,唐振鹏,吴俊传,杜晓旭,陈凯杰. 基于灰狼优化的混频支持向量机在股指预测与投资决策中的应用研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(5): 73-80. |
[10] | 李仲飞,周骐. 一个基于BL模型和复杂网络的行业配置模型[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(4): 1-13. |
[11] | 张雪彤,张卫国,王超. 发达市场与新兴市场的尾部风险[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(4): 14-25. |
[12] | 尹海员,寇文娟. 基于朴素贝叶斯法的投资者情绪度量及其对股票特质风险的影响[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(4): 38-47. |
[13] | 王晓燕,杨胜刚,张科坤. 终极所有权结构与企业委托贷款行为[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(4): 48-57. |
[14] | 李爱忠,任若恩,董纪昌. 图网络风险感知与稀疏低秩的组合管理策略[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(4): 58-65. |
[15] | 吴鑫育,姜晓晴,李心丹,马超群. 基于已实现EGARCH-FHS模型的上证50ETF期权定价研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2024, 32(3): 105-115. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||
|