基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.05.018

中国管理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (5): 174-183.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.05.018

基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

刘家国¹, 崔进¹, 周欢¹, 万子谦², 曹静²

1. 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院, 辽宁大连 116026;
2. 哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院, 黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2017-01-18 修回日期:2017-06-12 出版日期:2019-05-20 发布日期:2019-05-25
通讯作者: 刘家国(1979-),男(汉族),湖北枣阳人,大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,教授,研究方向:供应链管理、港口航运管理,E-mail:liujiaguo@gmail.com E-mail:liujiaguo@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71402038，71774019）；辽宁省社科规划基金资助项目（L18BGL006）；中央高校基本科研业务费（3132018158）

Research on Ship Navigation Risk assessment Method Based on HHM-RFRM

LIU Jia-guo¹, CUI Jin¹, ZHOU Huan¹, WAN Zi-qian², CAO Jing²

1. School of Maritime Economics and Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China;
2. School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China

Received:2017-01-18 Revised:2017-06-12 Online:2019-05-20 Published:2019-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 船舶航行风险是由各种风险因素交互作用产生。综合 HHM-RFRM 理论，构建船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型，以风险因素耦合视角探讨船舶航行风险管理问题。在船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型中结合贝叶斯定理，对船舶航行风险情景进行了定性与定量化过滤、评级。最后以大连港某从事商务活动的货船为例，验证了所提出方法的可行性。传统的风险评估方法只能评估单个风险因素对系统的影响，此评估方法克服了这一局限性，为船舶航行风险管理提供新的视角。

关键词: HHM-RFRM, 船舶航行风险, 贝叶斯定理, 危险测度模型, 风险管理

Abstract: With the development of the shipping market, domestic and international shipping accidents occur frequently which make the ship navigation risk management issues become increasingly prominent. The effective evaluation and comprehensive risk identification of the ship navigation can provide the scientific basis for the dynamic management and safe dispatching for the maritime departments and ship enterprises, and guarantee the safety of people's lives and property in the process of ship navigation. Previous scholars' researches are based on the construction of single risk factor index system for risk management focusing on the impact of individual risk factors on the overall systemic risk. However, the risk of ship navigation is generated by the interaction of various risk factors, and a single risk model can't fully explain the source of the risk. In view of this background, a multidimensional risk measurement model based on the ideas and methodologies of Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) and Risk Filtering, Ranking and Management Framework (RFRM) is built. In this paper, the method of HHM-RFRM is improved from the following three aspects:First, in terms of scenario recognition, the concept of multidimensional risk factors is presented, supposing that V_n^m represents a risk scenario consisting of m risk factors and is numberedn. V_n^m is called the m-dimensional risk scenario, and N_k represents the risk factor in the risk scenario V_n^m. Second, in terms of risk qualitative assessment, the characteristics of each risk factor are qualitatively analyzed to help the decision maker to quantify the risk factors and overall risk of navigation from its ability to defeat the ship's navigational system, aiming at the complex characteristic of ship navigation risk. According to the theory of Matalas and Fiering, the characteristics of each risk factor can be further evaluated to provide the reference standard for quantitative assessment by reflecting its ability to defeat the system protection ability including three defensive features of resilience, robustness, and redundancy. Third, in terms of quantitative risk assessment, the degree of the risk scenario is quantitatively calculated from two dimensions of probability and consequence, introducing the multidimensional risk measurement model combined with Bayesian theorem. The assessment of multiple risk factors including environment, software, hardware, and management is integrated. The risk source of the interaction of the key risk factors can be reflected. In this paper, the HHM framework of ship navigation risk is constructed based on the analysis of the risk factors of ship navigation. Afterwards, the concept of multidimensional risk scenario is proposed, and each risk scenario is identified by HHM. Further, the RFRM method is combined with the Bayesian theorem to filter and grade the ship navigation risk situation qualitatively and quantitatively. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by taking the cargo ship dealing with the commercial activities in Dalian Port as an example. A new perspective for the ship navigation risk management is provided in this paper.

Key words: HHM-RFRM, ship navigation risk, Bayesian theorem, risk measure model, risk management

中图分类号:

U676.1

刘家国, 崔进, 周欢, 万子谦, 曹静. 基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(5): 174-183.

LIU Jia-guo, CUI Jin, ZHOU Huan, WAN Zi-qian, CAO Jing. Research on Ship Navigation Risk assessment Method Based on HHM-RFRM[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(5): 174-183.

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基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

Research on Ship Navigation Risk assessment Method Based on HHM-RFRM

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