碳中和目标下能源经济系统转型：碳定价与可再生能源政策作用有多大？

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2022.0586

Abstract

Abstract:

The transformation of the energy economic system is the key to carbon neutrality， and the contradiction between the requirement of carbon neutrality for economic transformation and its requirement of energy system transformation is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed at present.A computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is developed to analysisthe impacts of different low-carbon policies on China's energy consumption and power generation structure in the long run. In order to characterize the energy system in China， the model in this study is enriched by endogenous technology improvement of renewable energy and substitution of different power generation technologies based on a Logistic model. The results show that while the carbon pricing and renewable energy subsidy policies have different advantages in realizing decarbonization of energy system and short-term optimization of energy structure，the combination of the two policies has lower macroeconomic costs and more significant effect on carbon emission mitigation than a single policy. The results indicate that it is difficult to achieve carbon neutrality only by the decarbonization of the energy system， and the difficulty in achieving carbon neutrality in the later period of 2020-2060 will mainly exist in the basic industrial sectors and the transportation sector.

Key words: carbon neutrality, carbon peaking, renewable energy, energy system, emission reduction pathway

CLC Number:

F205

Xinjian Liu,Zhongwei Song,Jie Wu. Transforming the Energy Economic System with the Carbon Neutrality Goal: How Much can the Carbon Pricing and Renewable Energy Policy Contribute?[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(11): 325-334.

Figures/Tables 13

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时间	本文	OECD^[41]	张希良等^[15]	O’Neill&Stupnytska^[44]
2020-2025	5.70	4.40	5.80	5.70
2026-2030	5.40	3.50	4.80	5.70
2031-2035	5.10	2.70	3.80	4.40
2036-2040	4.70	2.10	3.30	4.40
2041-2045	4.40	1.70	3.00	3.60
2046-2050	4.10	1.40	2.90	3.60
2051-2055	3.90	1.40	2.90	—
2056-2060	3.70	1.40	2.80	—

情境设置	情景描述	情境编号	碳税终值（元/吨）	补贴率(%)
基准情境	无减排措施下的自然经济增长	S0	-	-
碳定价政策	在基准情景基础上按碳排放量征收碳税	A1	200	-
		A2	400	-
		A3	600	-
可再生能源补贴政策	在基准情景基础上对风电和太阳能发电进行电价补贴	B1	-	5
		B2	-	10
		B3	-	20
政策组合情境	同时实施碳定价和可再生能源补贴政策	C1	200	5
政策组合情境	同时实施碳定价和可再生能源补贴政策	C2	400	10

国家/经济体		碳价	国家/经济体	碳价
瑞典		130	法国	49
瑞士		130	英国	99
芬兰	交通运输业	85	加拿大	40
芬兰	其他	59	欧盟	87

情境		2030	2040	2050	2060
基准情境	S0	23.24	31.25	44.14	55.69
碳定价政策	A1	23.54	35.85	52.14	62.34
	A2	23.87	40.42	57.59	64.75
	A3	24.21	44.7	60.71	65.34
可再生能源补贴政策	B1	24.17	33.06	46.81	58.32
	B2	25.21	35.12	49.71	60.99
	B3	27.75	40.08	56.15	66.19
政策组合情境	C1	24.54	38.02	54.79	64.24
政策组合情境	C2	26.14	45.52	62.12	67.38

政策情境	达峰年份	峰值碳排放量	2060年碳排放量
S0	2034	111.1	84.52
A1	2030	107.8	69.38
A2	2030	106.1	63.58
A3	2030	104.4	61.64
B1	2033	109.2	80.02
B2	2033	107.3	75.44
B3	2031	103.1	66.39
C1	2030	106.4	66.35
C2	2030	102.8	59.78

Transforming the Energy Economic System with the Carbon Neutrality Goal: How Much can the Carbon Pricing and Renewable Energy Policy Contribute?

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