Abstract:

The interaction of energy systems at a regional level can facilitate the low-carbon and flexible operation of integrated energy systems （RIESs）. However， uncertainties in energy demand and renewable energy outputs present challenges to the stable operation of M-RIESs， particularly in the context of extreme scenarios of energy demand and renewable energy outputs， which can result in significant economic losses. In light of the aforementioned issues， a multi-regional integrated energy system optimization methodology is put forth that considers conditional value-at-risk （CVaR） and cooperative games， which takes into account the correlation between energy demand and renewable energy output as well as the extreme scenarios. This methodology identifies the extreme scenarios and retains them in the subsequent scenario reduction. Firstly， the probability distribution functions of energy demand and renewable energy output are modelled with high accuracy using Gaussian mixture models. Subsequently， the correlation between energy demand and renewable energy output in the RIES is modelled using the Frank-Copula function. Ultimately， the point-to-point trading of electricity， heat and natural gas among multiple RIESs is optimized by the energy cooperation and scheduling strategy， which is based on the cooperative games and the adaptive alternating direction multiplier algorithm. Furthermore， a bargaining game revenue allocation method is proposed to ensure the stable operation of the alliance， taking into account the fairness and renewable energy consumption. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed model is more conducive to enhancing the system’s resilience， reducing the system’s potential risk losses， achieving flexible resource complementarity among RIESs， improving the economic efficiency of RIESs， increasing the rate of renewable energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions than the model that does not take into account extreme scenarios.

Key words: conditional value-at-risk, extreme scenarios, cooperative games, multi-regional integrated energy system