Abstract: Taking into consideration of three different types of uncertainty embedded in new technology commercialization project,the paper analyzes the influencing mechanism of uncertainties on the optimal investment decision from the perspective of reducing or resolving uncertainties by learning.The paper adopts the real options approach and builds the valuation and decision models on the new technology commercialization sequential investment in which the optimal investment rule is also derived.And then,by using the comparative static analysis based on numerical simulation,the paper analyzes how the changes of different parameter values affect the value and investment threshold of new technology commercialization project,with the economic and manag erial implication discussed.

Key words: new technology commercialization, uncertainty, learning, real option