安全裕度与综合效益权衡下的核电周边旅游规模优化研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2025.1417

Abstract

Abstract:

Under the dual-carbon and high-quality development agenda， areas surrounding nuclear power plants have emerged as tourism destinations integrating nuclear science popularization with regional economic activities. However， expanding tourism scale increases population density and mobility， thereby intensifying the complexity and operational burden of off-site nuclear emergency management. This creates an inherent trade-off between tourism development and emergency safety， making it essential to determine an appropriate tourism scale under institutional safety constraints. From a government decision-making perspective， this study formulates the problem as a joint optimization of tourist scale， spatial distribution， and emergency infrastructure investment under constraints of ecological capacity， tourism resources， and emergency preparedness systems. A safety margin indicator， defined as the ratio of emergency response capacity to exposed population， is introduced and decomposed into evacuation and decontamination components. A mixed-integer multi-objective optimization model is developed to simultaneously maximize comprehensive benefits and safety margins. Comprehensive benefits integrate economic， employment， and science popularization effects， while safety margins are derived from the comparison between system capacities and emergency demand. The model incorporates constraints such as ecological carrying capacity， accommodation limits， and emergency response time. Due to the NP-hard nature and conflicting objectives， an NSGA-II-based approach is employed， with pre-simulated evacuation and decontamination capacities embedded to reduce the search space. A case study based on a coastal nuclear power plant in China is conducted under three accident scenarios. Results show that：（1） a stable trade-off exists between benefits and safety；（2） coordinated multi-objective optimization significantly improves safety with limited benefit loss；（3） tourist structure and spatial allocation critically affect outcomes； and （4） optimizing composition and distribution is more effective than simply reducing tourist numbers. This study provides an integrated decision-support framework linking tourism development with nuclear emergency management， offering practical insights for sustainable development in high-risk energy regions.

Key words: balancing development and safety, comprehensive benefits, safety margin, tourism carrying capacity, multi-objective optimization

CLC Number:

C934

Yamin Ji,Feng Gao,Mingliang Qi, et al. Optimizing Tourism Development Scale around Nuclear Power Plants: A Trade-off between Safety Margin and Comprehensive Benefits[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(8): 104-114.

Figures/Tables 13

模型符号	定义
$I$	核电站周边区域 $i$ 集合，包括烟羽应急计划内区与外区， $i ∈ I$
$J$	游客类型 $j$ 集合，包括住宿型与非住宿型， $j ∈ J$
$D C$	洗消站的候选址集合， $d c ∈ D C$
$E X$	应急撤离道路的候选扩建方案集合， $e x ∈ E X$
$α$	企业所得税的税率
$θ$	公众接触核能相关知识信息后，提升其核能接受度的影响系数
$γ$	服务人员中的外地务工人员比例
$d$	区域开展旅游活动的有效天数
$n$	考虑核事故不确定性及未来核应急技术水平的变化，以 $n$ 年为决策周期
$R i$	$i$ 区域的常住居民数量
$L v i$	基于生态承载力的各区域游客容量
$L A i$	$i$ 区域可提供旅游住宿服务的容量
$P e i$	区域 $i$ 待撤离对象：包括常住居民与新增外来务工人口的一定比例（该比例以 $P e i$ 表示），以及停留的全部游客
$P w i$	各区域每日实际能吸引到的游客比例，定义为设计容量的一定比例
$P v j$	同一时段j类型游客在该区域停留的数量占该类型游客日接待规模的比例
$b j$	$j$ 类型游客能够带来旅游经济收入
$P b$	需要统一撤离的公众占全部待撤离对象的比例
$P o i j$	i类型游客在j区域能够接触核能知识科普的概率
$C a$	临时安置所需要的人均成本，临时安置的对象是撤离的所有常住居民和新增外来务工人口
$M d$	洗消设施每年的维护管理费用占固定成本投入的比例
$C b$	启动应急响应，每辆大巴车征用成本
$P d i$	区域i待洗消对象：包括常住居民、新增外来务工人口以及停留的全部游客的一定比例（该比例以Pd_i 表示）
$M c$	应急撤离道路每年的维护管理费用占其建设固定成本投入的比例
$S E j$	服务人员数量与j类型游客规模之间的匹配率
$c d c$	各洗消站候选址的建设成本
$c e x$	应急撤离道路扩建方案的建设成本
$T e$	将所有待撤离对象疏散至10千米范围外的安全时间限制
$T d$	为所有待洗消对象完成洗消服务的安全时间限制
决策变量
$x i j$	表示区域 $i$ 的 $j$ 类型游客的规模
$y d c$	$d c$ 候选洗消点是否选址建设，1表示选择建设，否则为0
$z e x$	是否采用 $e x$ 应急撤离道路建设方案，1表示采用，否则为0

事故

情境

考虑事故发生周期

待撤离公众比例

待洗消公众比例

乐观

n

=50

P e i = 0.95, i = 1 0.15, i = 2

P d i = 0.2, i = 1 0, i = 2

基准

n

=35

P e i = 1, i = 1 0.20, i = 2

P d i = 0.3, i = 1 0, i = 2

悲观

n

=20

P e i = 1, i = 1 0.25, i = 2

P d i = 0.4, i = 1 0, i = 2

$S E j$ 参数变动	情境	区1类1	区1类2	区2类1	区2类2	游客总量	综合效益	安全裕度
-20%	悲观	1	4102	93	23153	27349	0.6814	0.3600
	基准	8	13569	1076	16144	30797	0.8124	0.3537
	乐观	449	7458	2993	23093	33993	0.9210	0.3926
基础设置	悲观	10	7102	823	18526	26461	0.7327	0.3698
	基准	3	7184	231	24295	31713	0.8567	0.3965
	乐观	5	6968	2292	25817	35082	0.9867	0.5006
+20%	悲观	6	10405	65	16533	27009	0.7924	0.3309
	基准	14	5914	452	25051	31431	0.9076	0.4390
	乐观	453	6624	2953	23847	33877	1.0446	0.5175

References 26

[1]	Bakota D， Machowski R， Płomiński A， et al. The disaster as a factor in the development of modern tourism. A study case based on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant［J］. Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism， 2020， 11（7）： 1729.
[2]	Yang E C L， Nair V. Tourism at risk： A review of risk and perceived risk in tourism［J］. Asia-Pacific Journal of Innovation in Hospitality and Tourism （APJIHT）， 2014， 3（2）： 239-259.
[3]	李鑫波，贡金鑫. 核安全壳在钢衬里锈蚀情况下的概率安全分析［J］. 哈尔滨工程大学学报， 2024， 45（12）： 2281-2289.
	Li X B， Gong J X. Probabilistic safety analysis of nuclear containment under steel liner corrosion conditions［J］. Journal of Harbin Engineering University， 2024， 45（12）： 2281-2289.
[4]	Ji Y M， Qi M L. A robust optimization approach for decontamination planning of emergency planning zone： Facility location and assignment plan［J］. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences， 2020， 70： 100740.
[5]	邹永广. 旅游安全评价：研究现状与述评［J］. 旅游学刊， 2020， 35（7）： 133-146.
	Zou Y G. A literature review and current research status on tourism safety evaluation［J］. Tourism Tribune， 2020， 35（7）： 133-146.
[6]	周彬，朱宇辰，虞虎，等. 旅游生态安全研究现状、评述与展望［J］. 生态学报， 2025， 45（3）： 1049-1058.
	Zhou B， Zhu Y C， Yu H， et al. Current state， critical review and future prospects of research on tourism ecological security［J］. Acta Ecologica Sinica， 2025， 45（3）： 1049-1058.
[7]	刘伟，代萍，赵方雷，等. 山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估：以北京市为例［J］. 中国安全科学学报， 2024， 34（12）： 168-177.
	Liu W， Dai P， Zhao F L， et al. Tourism safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas： A case study of Beijing［J］. China Safety Science Journal， 2024， 34（12）： 168-177.
[8]	Badiora A I， Adedotun S B， Sobowale T O， et al. Safety and security assessment of tourist destinations： A field study in a Nigerian geopark： Safety and security assessment of tourist attraction sites［J］. Journal of Event， Tourism and Hospitality Studies， 2022， 2： 106-149.
[9]	Cui F， Liu Y， Chang Y， et al. An overview of tourism risk perception［J］. Natural Hazards， 2016， 82（1）： 643-658.
[10]	程占红，程锦红，朱紫翎，等. 基于群落视角的五台山景区森林植被旅游承载力研究［J］. 生态学报， 2022， 42（8）： 3144-3154.
	Cheng Z H， Cheng J H， Zhu Z L， et al. Tourism carrying capacity of forest vegetation in Wutai Mountain scenic area based on community perspective［J］. Acta Ecologica Sinica， 2022， 42（8）： 3144-3154.
[11]	李鹏，李晨阳，沈梦婷，等. 自然保护地旅游承载力多情境核算——以云南泸沽湖为例［J］. 资源科学， 2022， 44（3）： 620-633.
	Li P， Li C Y， Shen M T， et al. Multi-scenario accounting of tourism carrying capacity in nature protected areas： Taking the Lugu Lake Nature Reserve in Yunnan as a case［J］. Resources Science， 2022， 44（3）： 620-633.
[12]	杨秀平，翁钢民，马玉泉，等. 参数不确定的旅游环境承载力区间多目标优化［J］. 统计与决策， 2018， 34（10）： 58-61.
	Yang X P， Weng G M， Ma Y Q， et al. Interval multi-objective optimization of tourism environmental carrying capacity with uncertain parameters［J］. Statistics Decision， 2018， 34（10）： 58-61.
[13]	Rahmafitria F， Pearce P L， Oktadiana H， et al. Tourism planning and planning theory： Historical roots and contemporary alignment［J］. Tourism Management Perspectives， 2020， 35： 100703.
[14]	Beirman D. The integration of emergency management and tourism［J］. Australian Journal of Emergency Management， 2011， 26（3）： 30-34.
[15]	纪雅敏，祁明亮，景奇. 基于系统动力学的场外核应急洗消设备配置问题研究［J］. 运筹与管理， 2018， 27（1）： 1-6.
	Ji Y M， Qi M L， Jing Q. Study on decontamination equipment allocation during off-site nuclear emergency based on system dynamics［J］. Operations Research and Management Science， 2018， 27（1）： 1-6.
[16]	亓文辉，祁明亮. 烟羽应急计划区公众撤离模式研究［J］. 运筹与管理， 2020， 29（9）： 43-52.
	Qi W H， Qi M L. Study on public evacuation mode of emergency planning zone［J］. Operations Research and Management Science， 2020， 29（9）： 43-52.
[17]	亓文辉，祁明亮，纪雅敏. 应急撤离状态下烟羽应急计划区路网脆弱性评估［J］. 运筹与管理， 2024， 33（11）： 1-8.
	Qi W H， Qi M L， Ji Y M. Vulnerability assessment of road network in plume emergency planning zone for emergency evacuation［J］. Operations Research and Management Science， 2024， 33（11）： 1-8.
[18]	亓文辉，池宏，祁明亮，等.考虑居民动态决策的核应急撤离仿真研究［J］.中国管理科学，2025，33（5）： 259-267.
	Qi W H， Chi H， Qi M L， et al. Simulation study on nuclear emergency evacuation considering residents' dynamic decision-making［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2025， 33（5）： 259-267.
[19]	Ji Y， Qi M， Qi W. The effect path of public acceptance and its influencing factors on public willingness to participate in nuclear emergency governance［J］. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction， 2022， 71： 102806.
[20]	Qi W H， Qi M L， Ji Y M. The effect path of public communication on public acceptance of nuclear energy［J］. Energy Policy， 2020， 144： 111655.
[21]	亓文辉，祁明亮. 核应急撤离情境下居民配合意愿影响机制研究——以海阳核电厂为例［J］. 中国管理科学， 2024， 32（12）： 225-234.
	Qi W H， Qi M L. Research on the effect path to resident cooperation intention under nuclear emergency evacuation scenarios： A case of Haiyang nuclear power plant［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2024， 32（12）： 225-234.
[22]	Li L， Feng R， Xi J， et al. Distinguishing the impact of tourism development on ecosystem service trade-offs in ecological functional zone［J］. Journal of Environmental Management， 2023， 342： 118183.
[23]	Arbolino R， Boffardi R， De Simone L， et al. Multi-objective optimization technique： A novel approach in tourism sustainability planning［J］. Journal of Environmental Management， 2021， 285： 112016.
[24]	Chen C， Reniers G. Chemical industry in China： The current status， safety problems， and pathways for future sustainable development［J］. Safety Science， 2020， 128： 104741.
[25]	陈青，王文明，马明. 基于NSGA-Ⅱ算法的内蒙古沿黄地区乡村居住建筑多目标优化设计［J］. 干旱区资源与环境， 2023， 37（10）： 75-83.
	Chen Q， Wang W M， Ma M. NSGA-Ⅱalgorithm based multi-objective optimization design for rural residential buildings along the Yellow River， Inner Mongolia section［J］. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment， 2023， 37（10）： 75-83.
[26]	Thrane C， Farstad E. Domestic tourism expenditures： The non-linear effects of length of stay and travel party size［J］. Tourism Management， 2011， 32（1）： 46-52.

洗消站序号	建设面积（平方米）	建设成本（万元）	洗消能力(人)
1	3000	31.1	328
2	4000	41.4	438
3	5000	51.5	547
4	2000	20.8	219
5	3000	31.1	328
6	6000	61.8	657
7	3500	36.15	383
8	5000	51.5	547
9	1500	15.55	164
10	7500	77.15	821
11	4000	41.4	438
12	6000	61.8	657
13	5000	51.5	547

方案	扩建细节	成本 (万元)	可撤离公众(人)
1	维持原道路	0	20144
2	部分支路扩建1车道	180	22168
3	主路扩建1车道	1440	27088
4	部分支路和主路扩建1车道	1620	31832
5	部分支路和主路扩建2车道	3060	32836

Optimizing Tourism Development Scale around Nuclear Power Plants: A Trade-off between Safety Margin and Comprehensive Benefits

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 13

References 26

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

决策偏好	情境	区1类1	区1类2	区2类1	区2类2	游客总量	综合效益值	安全裕度
仅以效益为目标	悲观	261	8538	3521	11157	23477	0.7327	0.3152
	基准	1331	9407	3891	11985	26614	0.8567	0.3162
	乐观	456	9973	1137	24100	35666	1	0.317
仅以安全为目标	悲观	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5976
	基准	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.7368
	乐观	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.9857
多目标优化-效益优先	悲观	10	7102	823	18526	26461	0.7221	0.3698
	基准	3	7184	231	24295	31713	0.8419	0.3965
	乐观	5	6968	2292	25817	35082	0.9867	0.5006
多目标优化-安全优先	悲观	0	1	4	22	27	0.0126	0.5973
	基准	1	0	0	12	13	0.0053	0.7366
	乐观	1	2	1	48	52	0.0035	0.9393

[1]	Ru Yu, Xiaoli Wang, Xiaojun Xu, Lu Wang. Research on the Development Path of BEVs in China Based on Multi-objective Optimization [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(8): 345-355.
[2]	Liping Liu, Rui Wang, Shilei Sun, Xiaofeng Gan, Tijun Fan. Transportation Network Optimization of Hazardous Chemicals Considering Risk Equity under Depot Disruptions [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(6): 66-76.
[3]	Song Xue, Xu Chen, Chao Li, Jingchun Feng. Research on Miniature Multi-Project Scheduling of Service Project Enterprises Considering the Evolution of Human Resources Skills [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(6): 96-104.
[4]	Guobin Wu, Yaqing Sun, Yulong Li. Research on Optimization of Tunnel Spoil Comprehensive Utilization of Mega Project Based on ESG Framework [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(3): 174-185.
[5]	Tieke Li,Yixuan Su,Wenxin Zhang,Bailin Wang. Interval Multi-objective Optimal Scheduling for Steelmaking-continuous Casting with Processing Time Uncertainty [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(8): 95-106.
[6]	Fuyu Wang,Haoxuan Xie,Zhonggao Lin,Jun Wang. Multi-objective Optimization Model and Adaptive Quantum Ant Colony Algorithm for Emergency Evacuation of High-speed Railway Stations under Emergencies [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(3): 188-197.
[7]	Hui Li,Xi Wang,Zhiya Zuo. Multi-objective Integrated Optimization of Flexible Resource Allocation and Scheduling in the Aerospace Production Workshop [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2024, 32(10): 146-155.
[8]	Ming LIU, Xi-fen XU, Jie CAO. A Data-driven Optimization Model for Reallocating Dock-less Sharing Bikes with Considering Multiple Disruption Scenarios [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(9): 148-158.
[9]	Hai-yu WANG. Economic-statistical Optimization Design of Dynamic $n p x$ Control Chart Based on Simply Inspection [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(9): 205-213.
[10]	HU Xue-jun, ZHAO Yan, SHAN Mi-yuan, WANG Jian-jiang, BIE Li. An Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search Metaheuristic for Robust Multi-project Scheduling [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(9): 217-231.
[11]	HU Yu-zhen, LI Qian-qian, JIANG Shan. Multi-Objective Optimization of Overseas Warehouse Location for Cross-border E-commerce Enterprises [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(7): 201-209.
[12]	NIU Ben, , GUO Chen, TANG Heng. Multi-objective Multi-learning Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm for Mixed Data Clustering [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(12): 131-140.
[13]	XU Xiao-feng, LIN Zi-ru, ZHOU Peng. Research on Vehicle Routing Problem of Multiple Oil Depot Passive Distribution under Multi Oil Supply Constraints [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(5): 157-165.
[14]	PENG Wu-liang, MA Xiao-jing. A Bi-objective Optimization Method for Tactical Project Planning [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(2): 69-77.
[15]	DONG Xue-fan, LIU Yi-jun, LIAN Ying. Entropy-Controlled Principle based Multi-objective Industrial Structure Optimization Model in the Tertiary Industry:A Case Study of Beijing [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(9): 53-62.