Abstract: The electric vehicle (BEV) industry holds pivotal importance in China's endeavors towards energy conservation, carbon emission reduction, and the refinement of its industrial structure. Nevertheless, there is a need for further refinement and optimization of its long-term planning and development trajectory. The article delves into an in-depth study of the optimal development path of BEVs in China. Leveraging the generalized Bass model, we forecast sales trends, and the two-factor learning curve model aids in analyzing the intricate relationship between technology, output, and cost, further predicting the cost evolution. Based on these insights, a multi-objective programming optimal control model is formulated to identify the optimal development path. Our simulation analysis reveals that 2028 marks the convergence of sales and cost into an optimal equilibrium, positioning 2026-2030 as the industry's golden decade. Sales projections indicate a robust growth in BEV sales until 2025, with a subsequent deceleration in the growth rate, culminating in a slight decline from 2029 onwards. By 2035, China's cumulative BEV sales are anticipated to reach the predefined benchmark, translating into an annual increase of 14,097,800 units between 2024 and 2031. Cost-wise, the initial high and volatile unit production cost of power batteries, driven by product development expenditures, will gradually stabilize from 2025 onwards, culminating in an ideal price point by 2031.

Key words: Battery electric vehicles, Development path, Generalized Bass model, Two-factor learning, Multi-objective optimization