关键词: 复杂系统管理, 以问题为导向, 以情景为导向, 建模, 研究范式

Abstract:

In traditional management decision-making， the “problem guidance” research paradigm is often adopted， which simplifies and assumes the actual management problems of the original ecology， abstracts them into theoretical problems through scenario stripping， and conducts theoretical research after mathematical processing. The research conclusions are tested for authenticity and then applied in practice to further improve the theory in application. However， this research paradigm faces many limitations when applied to complex systems and their management activities with reduction theory is irreversible （non additive integrity， complex integrity） properties， mainly because the "problem guidance" research paradigm cannot decipher the complex integrity in the management activities and processes of complex systems. To address this issue， considering that scenarios are the macro form， evolution， and evolutionary path formed by management activities， environment， and management activity-environment composite systems at the overall level， and contain all the detailed information of management activities and processes， scenarios are adopted to depict the complex integrity of complex system management and proposes a “scenario guidance” research paradigm. Based on the theoretical consistency between big data and scenarios in complex integrity， a conceptual framework and overall approach for modeling complex system management scenario driven by big data have been designed， forming a method for reverse modeling of complex system management scenarios based on scenario big data collected or recorded through observation or experimental methods.

Key words: complex system management, problem guidance, scenario guidance, modeling, paradigm