复杂系统层次—情境型群组DEMATEL因素分析方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1784

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为克服已有层次型群组DEMATEL分析方法所固有的“方法—结构”不匹配问题、逻辑混乱且割裂系统因素层次间的关联关系以及专家难以有效判断等缺陷，在借鉴多色集理论（PST）及复杂系统思维观的基础上，通过构建复杂系统层次—情境型群组DEMATEL新分析结构及系统因素知识推理，提出一种复杂系统层次—情境型群组DEMATEL因素分析方法。该方法的主要创新在于：第一，提出了全新的复杂系统层次—情境型群组DEMATEL新分析结构，从整体和局部层面均实现了对群组DEMATEL因素的系统分析。第二，通过划分系统因素状态水平，使群组专家在给出判断信息时因有明确的锚定点而易于给出科学合理的判断结果。第三，首次提出针对各层系统因素（底层因素除外）直接影响矩阵构建合理性的逻辑一致性检验方法。实例验证结果表明，所提方法具有较强的实践应用推广可行性。

关键词: 复杂系统, 群组DEMATEL, 层次—情境型, 因素分析

Abstract:

The group decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory （DEMATEL） is a commonly used method of factor analysis in complex systems， which can reveal causal relationship among the factors. In recent years， the group DEMATEL has been widely used in various fields. As a DEMATEL expansion method of how to solve complex hierarchical structure problems， hierarchical group DEMATEL has attracted the attention of some experts and scholars. However， existing hierarchical group DEMATEL methods still have the following deficiencies such the inherent “method-structure” mismatching， logical confusion and fragmentation of the correlation among the different levels of factors， as well as the expert judgments being difficult. To overcome the above-mentioned drawbacks， a group DEMATEL factor analysis method with hierarchy-situation type for complex systems is suggested in this paper. In the method， a new analytical structure is first proposed by devising the state situations of the system factors and adding multiple alternative situations. Then， the factor knowledge reasoning mechanism from a holistic perspective is given based on polychromatic set theory. Next， the corresponding method implementation steps are given in detail. Finally， a case study on the identification of risk factors affecting oil and gas leakage from offshore platforms is shown to illustrate the proposed method and verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed method. The result shows that the method is scientific and reasonable and can be well applied to solve the issue of analysis of complex system factors. It should be noted that this suggested method not only clarifies the action mechanism of group DEMATEL complex factors reflecting well hierarchical structure characteristics from both vertical and horizontal dimensions， but also can realize the varying weight analysis of the system factors.

Key words: complex systems, group decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory（DEMATEL）, hierarchy-situation type, factor analysis

中图分类号:

孙永河,黄子航,缪彬, 等. 复杂系统层次—情境型群组DEMATEL因素分析方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2026, 34(4): 89-99.

Yonghe Sun,Zihang Huang,Bin Miao, et al. Group DEMATEL Factor Analysis Method with Hierarchy-situation Type for Complex Systems[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(4): 89-99.

图/表 8

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

针对A1第三层因素集结后的接影响矩阵"

因素	$H 13$	$H 23$	$H 33$	$H 43$	⋯	$H 323$	$H 333$	$H 343$	$H 353$
$H 13$	0	2	1	2	⋯	1	1	3	1
$H 23$	2	0	2	2	⋯	2	2	2	2
$H 33$	0	2	0	2	⋯	0	2	2	2
$H 43$	2	1	1	0	⋯	0	2	2	2
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋱	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
$H 323$	0	2	2	1	⋯	0	1	1	1
$H 333$	2	1	2	2	⋯	1	0	2	1
$H 343$	2	0	1	0	⋯	1	2	0	1
$H 353$	2	0	1	2	⋯	1	2	2	0

表1

表2

针对A1第三层因素的综合影响矩阵"

因素	$H 13$	$H 23$	$H 33$	$H 43$	⋯	$H 323$	$H 333$	$H 343$	$H 353$
$H 13$	0.080	0.086	0.084	0.106	⋯	0.047	0.091	0.124	0.070
$H 23$	0.134	0.071	0.123	0.128	⋯	0.088	0.145	0.132	0.120
$H 33$	0.069	0.078	0.061	0.094	⋯	0.039	0.109	0.098	0.092
$H 43$	0.107	0.054	0.067	0.071	⋯	0.043	0.115	0.105	0.096
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋱	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
$H 323$	0.094	0.097	0.116	0.104	⋯	0.053	0.121	0.106	0.096
$H 333$	0.123	0.080	0.115	0.117	⋯	0.065	0.104	0.120	0.097
$H 343$	0.111	0.056	0.087	0.074	⋯	0.061	0.120	0.076	0.087
$H 353$	0.114	0.058	0.090	0.108	⋯	0.060	0.125	0.110	0.072

表2

表3

针对A1第三层因素的中心度和原因度"

参数	$H 13$	$H 23$	$H 33$	$H 43$	⋯	$H 323$	$H 333$	$H 343$	$H 353$
$ω + ξ$	7.233	6.886	6.374	6.812	⋯	6.006	8.244	7.091	6.838
$ω - ξ$	-0.809	1.264	-0.870	-0.754	⋯	1.455	-0.829	-0.699	-0.179

表3

表4

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对比项目	传统群组DEMATEL方法	文献[7]方法	本文所提方法
层次结构	×	√	√
方案情境引入	×	×	√
因素状态划分	×	×	√
系统整体性因素分析	×	×	√
层次因素递推	×	×	√