震后应急医疗救援流程效率评价研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.020

中国管理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 205-216.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.01.020

• 论文 • 上一篇

震后应急医疗救援流程效率评价研究

孙华丽¹, 赵喆², 刘涛¹, 薛耀锋³

1. 上海大学管理学院, 上海 200444;
2. 解放军总医院第三医学中心, 北京 100039;
3. 华东师范大学教育信息技术学系, 上海 200062

收稿日期:2017-10-10 修回日期:2018-04-28 出版日期:2019-01-20 发布日期:2019-03-25
通讯作者: 孙华丽(1977-),女(汉族),山东威海人,上海大学管理学院副教授,硕士研究生导师,博士,研究方向:公共安全与应急管理,E-mail:sun_huali@163.com. E-mail:sun_huali@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71203134，71603109）；国家科技支撑计划（2015BAK08B00）

Research on the Efficiency Evaluation of Emergency Medical Rescue Process after Earthquake

SUN Hua-li¹, ZHAO Zhe², LIU Tao¹, XUE Yao-feng³

1. School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China;
2. The Third Medical Center, The General Hospital of the Peoples's Liberation Army, Beijing 100039, China;
3. Department of Educational Information Technology, Shanghai 200062, China

Received:2017-10-10 Revised:2018-04-28 Online:2019-01-20 Published:2019-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了最大程度减少地震灾害造成的人员伤亡，实施快速有效的应急医疗救援，在资源有限情景下，迫切需要提高应急医疗救援效率。通过案例分析方法提出了震后应急医疗救援的一般流程，构建了应急医疗救援流程的模糊随机Petri网模型，根据模糊随机Petri网与马尔科夫链的同构关系，得到系统状态的稳态概率表达式，据此分析震后应急医疗救援流程中的关键环节。在此基础上，考虑医疗资源投入的数量与救援工作效率之间的关系，引入时效性评估函数对关键环节的实施效率进行评价，通过理论推导证明同一资源配比存在最优值。以"汶川地震"为例，通过动态和静态分析，得到各状态下稳态概率变化情况，明确了震后应急医疗救援流程的关键环节。以救援过程中资源的投入量作为自变量，通过算例仿真得出医疗资源确定情况下关键环节的最优资源配比。由此对震后应急医疗救援过程提出相应对策与建议，可以为地震灾害应急医疗救援工作部署提供决策支持，促进灾后医疗救援工作的有序进行，实现应急医疗救援效率的提升。

关键词: 地震灾害, 应急医疗, 救援流程, 模糊随机Petri网, 评估函数

Abstract: Earthquakes seriously threatened the safety of the people and affected the stable development of the whole society. In the face of complex and highly uncertain earthquakes, the rapid and effective implementation of emergency medical rescue is the most important way to save lives and reduce losses after the earthquake. The arrangement of emergency medical rescue process and the allocation of rescue resources are directly related to the efficiency of emergency medical rescue. The normal process of emergency medical rescue after earthquake was put forward through case analysis in this paper. Then the fuzzy stochastic Petri net model of the emergency medical rescue process was constructed by using the fuzzy stochastic Petri net theory. And according to the isomorphic relation between the fuzzy stochastic Petri net and the Markov chain, the system state of the steady-state probability of the expression could be derived, based on which key links could be found. On this basis, considering the relationship between the medical resources and rescue efficiency,the timeliness assessment function is adopted to evaluate the implementation efficiency of the key links, and the result that the same resource ratio has the optimal value was derivable from theory. Taking "Wenchuan earthquake" as an example, the changes of steady-state probability under different conditions were obtained by both dynamic and static analysis, and the key links of the emergency medical rescue process after earthquake were defined. In the rescue process, the input amount of resources was taken as independent variable, and the optimal resource ratio of the key link in the case of fixed medical resources was obtained by numerical simulation.Accordingly, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for emergency medical rescue after earthquake were presented, which could improve the efficiency of emergency medical rescue and provide decision support for the deployment of emergency medical rescue for earthquake disaster.

Key words: earthquake, emergency medical, rescue process, fuzzy stochastic petri net, assessment function

中图分类号:

C931

孙华丽, 赵喆, 刘涛, 薛耀锋. 震后应急医疗救援流程效率评价研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2019, 27(1): 205-216.

SUN Hua-li, ZHAO Zhe, LIU Tao, XUE Yao-feng. Research on the Efficiency Evaluation of Emergency Medical Rescue Process after Earthquake[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2019, 27(1): 205-216.

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震后应急医疗救援流程效率评价研究

Research on the Efficiency Evaluation of Emergency Medical Rescue Process after Earthquake

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