中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素及发展路径分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2017.08.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在2030年碳排放"达峰"的减排压力下，中国面向工业领域的转型升级和居民消费领域的低碳化发展迫在眉睫。居民消费作为国内生产总值的重要组成部分，所引发的碳排放有可能成为新一轮碳排放的主要推动力。本文以居民消费碳排放为研究对象，利用非竞争型投入产出分析法（NCIOA）测算了中国1995-2009年居民消费碳排放量，采用结构分解分析模型（SDA模型）对碳排放量变动的影响因素进行分析，并考察2007年全民减排政策的实施效果，进一步通过回归方程预测到2030年我国居民消费碳排放的发展路径。实证研究表明，考察期内虽然中国居民消费引致的碳排放量总体呈现显著的上升趋势，但从结构和影响因素的维度来看中国居民消费仍在走低碳发展道路。特别是本文着重分析了2007年居民低碳政策的实施效果，表明全民减排政策并非失效，具体表现为碳排放强度、技术、消费结构、人口都在向减排方向发展，其中人均消费规模是居民消费引致的碳排放增长的关键性因素，说明中国减排工作并没有以牺牲居民需求为代价，是特殊的经济和消费发展阶段的所必然的低碳发展道路。

关键词: 居民消费碳排放, 投入产出分析, 结构分解分析, 低碳发展路径

Abstract: Due to the pressure of "carbon emission peak" target in 2030, it's extremely urged to industrial transform and upgrade and residential low carbon development. As a vital component in gross domestic product, household consumption will cause carbon emission that can give impetus to new round carbon emission in the future. Based on the international input-output tables, carbon emission of Chinese household consumption in 1995-2009 is calculated by using the method of non-competitive input-output analysis. Secondly, by using structural decomposition model, the influencing factors of carbon emission variation are analyzed and the effect of national emission reduction policy in 2007 is investigated. Furthermore, how consumption carbon emissions should develop until 2030 is forecasted by using regression model. Empirical results show that even though the carbon emission of household consumption causes a remarkable increasing trend on total national carbon emission during the study period, it still on the way of low carbon emission development under structural and factors influencing perspective. Especially, though analyzing the implementation effect of low carbon policy in 2007, it is found find that the policy doesn't fail to reduce emissions, it leads the carbon intensity, technology, consumption structure and popularity to an emission reduction way. Also, consumption scale per capita is the critical factor in carbon emission increasing which caused by household consumption. In conclusion, our emission reduction efforts do not decrease at the expense of residents' demand, which is necessary for our low carbon development during the special economy and consumption development phase.

Key words: carbon emission of household consumption, input-output technique, structural decomposition analysis, low carbon development

中图分类号:

F223

王会娟, 夏炎. 中国居民消费碳排放的影响因素及发展路径分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(8): 1-10.

WANG Hui-juan, XIA Yan. Influence Factors VS.Developments of China's Household Carbon Emissions[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2017, 25(8): 1-10.

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