[1] Kahn H, Wiener A. The year 2000[M].New York:MacMillan Press, 1967.[2] Gershuny J.The choice of scenarios[J].Futures,1976,(8):496-508.[3] Porter M E.Competitive advantage[M].New York:Free Press,1982.[4] Schnaars S P.How to develop and use scenarios[J].Long Range Planning,1987,20(1):105-114.[5] Gronberg C. Accident scenarios and their role in risk assessment[J].Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,15(S1).[6] Alspaugh T A.Scenario networks and formalization for scenario management[D]. Raleigh,NC:North Carolina State University, 2002.[7] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I.Scenario networks:A case study of the enhanced messaging system[J]//Proceedings of the Seventh International Workshop on Requirements Engineering:Foundation for Software Quality (REFSQ), 2001,:113-124.[8] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I,Barnes T,et al.An integrated scenario management strategy[C]//Proceedings of the Fourth IEEE International Symposium on Requirements Engineering (RE'99), June 7-11,1999:142-149.[9] Alspaugh T A, Anton A I, Davis L J.An empirical study of scenario similarity measure[R].Technical Report Institute for Sofeware Researeh,2003.[10] Paltrinieri N, Wilday J,Wardman M, et al.Surface installations intended for carbon capture and sequestration:A typical accident scenarios and their identification[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2014,92(1):93-107.[11] Paltrinieri N,Dechy N,Salzano E,et al.Towards a new approach for the identification of atypical accident scenarios[J].Journal of Risk Research,2013,16(3-4):337-354.[12] Paltrinieri N,Øien K, Cozzani V. Assessment and comparison of two early warning indicator methods in the perspective of prevention of atypical accident scenarios[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2012,108(8):21-31.[13] 刘铁民.重大突发事件情景规划与构建研究[J].中国应急管理,2012,(04):18-23.[14] 王颜新.非常规突发事件情境重构模型研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2011.[15] 姜卉,侯建盛.基于情景重建的非常规突发事件应急处置方案的快速生成方法研究[J].中国应急管理,2012,(01):14-20.[16] 陈祖琴,苏新宁.基于情景划分的突发事件应急响应策略库构建方法[J].图书情报工作,2012,58(19):105-110.[17] 于峰,李向阳,孙钦莹.突发事件情景应对案例库族谱设计[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2596-2605.[18] 张玲,陈涛,黄钧. 基于最小最大后悔值的应急救灾网络构建鲁棒优化模型与算法[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(7):131-139.[19] 杨继君,佘廉.面向多灾点需求的应急资源调度博弈模型及优化[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(08):154-163.[20] 刘浪,史文强,冯良清.多因素扰动情景下应急数量弹性契约的供应链协调[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(07):163-176.[21] 刘长石,彭怡,寇纲.震后应急物资配送的模糊定位-路径问题研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(05):111-118.[22] 陈晨,俞政,张新梅.考虑应急活动的非常规突发事件情景刻画研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2014,24(10):163-169.[23] 刘樑,李仕明.非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2013,15(06):20-24.[24] 王旭坪,杨相英,樊双姣,等.非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究[J].电子科技大学学报(社科版),2013,(01):22-27.[25] 张承伟,李建伟,陈雪龙.基于知识元的突发事件情景建模[J].情报杂志,2012,(07):11-15.[26] 仲雁秋,郭艳敏,王宁等.基于知识元的非常规突发事件情景模型研究[J].情报科学,2012, 30(01):115-120.[27] 李藐,陈建国,陈涛,等.突发事件的事件链模型[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010,(08):1173-1177.[28] 罗鹏志,陈曦.面向事件链的突发事件建模与检索技术[J].华中科技大学学报,2015,43(10):441-445.[29] 崔玉泉, 张宪.非对称信息下供应链应急管理和信息价值研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(04):83-93.[30] 曾波, 孟伟, 刘思峰,等.面向灾害应急物资需求的灰色异构数据预测建模方法[J].中国管理科学,2015,23(08):84-91. |