关键词: 面板向量自回归, 动态交互影响, 现金流系统, 冲击反应, 融资约束

Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic interacting relationships between the operating,investing and financing cash flows with a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model,which treats the above three variables as a system,mitigates the problem of endogeneity in the estimation,and displays the responses of one variable to the shocks from the others in the cash flow system. With the sample of the listed firms of China's manufacturing industry,the results of the sensitivity analysis of the coefficients and variance decomposition show that,the level of the investing cash flow is more sensitive to the operating cash flow, while the volatility of the investing cash flow derives more from the financing cash flow. Furthermore,the orthogonalized impulse-response functions manifest that,the operating cash flow is insensitive to the shocks from the investing and financing cash flows;the investing cash flow exhibits lasting and significant responses to the shocks from the operating and financing cash flows;and,the financing and operating cash flows evidence short-term substitution effect to some extent. In an overall view,the above findings demonstrate the evidence of the financial constraints of the listed firms of China's manufacturing industry observed from cash flows'sensitivity and volatility aspects.

Key words: Panel Vector Autoregression, dynamic interacting relationships, cash flow system, impulse-response, financing restriction