主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

中国管理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (6): 1-9.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.0720

• 论文 •    下一篇

金融网络风险下多因子矩阵回归的资产组合与定价

李爱忠1, 任若恩2, 董纪昌3   

  1. 1. 山西财经大学财政与公共经济学院,山西 太原 030006;
    2. 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京 100191;
    3. 中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-14 修回日期:2018-10-30 发布日期:2021-06-29
  • 通讯作者: 李爱忠(1972-),男(汉族),山西人,山西财经大学财政与公共经济学院,副教授,博士,硕士生导师,研究方向:数量经济、投资组合、金融工程与风险管理,E-mail:lazshp@sina.com. E-mail:lazshp@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BTJ026)

Asset Portfolio and Pricing of Multi-factor Matrix Regression under Financial Network Risk

LI Ai-zhong1, REN Ruo-en2, DONG Ji-chang3   

  1. 1. School of PublicFinance & Economics, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China;
    2. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;
    3. School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2018-06-14 Revised:2018-10-30 Published:2021-06-29

摘要: 本文从企业的股权、债权关系出发,基于违约距离构建无向图网络,分析了不确定性风险以网络形式进行传染、溢出和蔓延等现象,通过最小生成树的稀疏网络优化方法最大限度降低资产组合的非线性风险影响。站在资源配置的角度,利用稀疏聚类算法深入挖掘资产特征和捕捉其间的相依关系,采用多目标、多指数的稳健矩阵回归策略动态跟踪市场趋势,并通过自适应权重学习策略对网络风险叠加影响下的资产组合进行选择和配置,最终获得最小生成树风险下投资组合的稀疏聚类优化策略,进一步扩充了资产定价多因子模型。研究发现多目标矩阵回归的稀疏聚类投资组合,不仅对组合内投资标的进行了选择性舍弃,使资金能够集中配置于优质资产,更有助于通过最小生成树减缓甚至切断风险在网络中的传播,有效降低了资产之间风险的传染性。基于金融网络的风险分析方法不仅有效地刻画了风险以网络方式互相传染、互相影响、互相强化的非线性叠加效应,而且通过资产之间配置系数的压缩变换和最小生成树的优化方式,最小化最坏情形下风险传染的影响,对复杂网络环境下的资产配置和全面风险管理进行了有益补充,为长期投资基金获得风险和收益更为均衡的资产配置,提供了合意的投资策略和决策依据。

关键词: 网络风险, 违约距离, 矩阵回归, 最小生成树, 稀疏聚类, 非线性叠加

Abstract: This paper starts from the equity and creditor's rights of the enterprise. An undirected graph network is constructed based on the default distance, and the risk of contagion, spillover, and spread in the form of a network with uncertainty risk is analyzed. The sparse network optimization method using the minimum spanning tree minimizes Non-linear risk of portfolio.From the perspective of resource allocation, sparse clustering algorithms are used to dig deeper into the characteristics of assets and their dependencies are captured, and a multi-objective, multi-index robust matrix regression strategy is adopted to dynamically track market trends.Then, the adaptive weight learning strategy is used to select and configure the asset portfolio under the influence of the network risk overlay.Finally, the sparse clustering optimization strategy of the portfolio under the minimum spanning tree risk is obtained, which further expands the asset pricing multi-factor model. It is found that the sparse clustering portfolio with multi-objective matrix regression not only selectively discards the investment targets in the portfolio, enables funds to be allocated to high-quality assets in a centralized manner, but also helps to reduce or even cut off the spread of risk through the minimum spanning tree.The risk analysis method of financial networks not only effectively describes the non-linear superposition effect of risks infecting each other, affecting each other, and strengthening each other in a network manner.In addition, the compression of asset weights and the optimization of the minimum spanning tree minimize the impact of risk contagion in the worst case.It is a useful supplement to asset allocation and comprehensive risk management in a complex network environment, and provides a desirable investment strategy and decision basis for long-term investment funds to obtain a more balanced asset allocation of risks and returns.This paper follows the research ideas of capital asset pricing, inherits and extends the classic asset pricing model, adds non-linear superimposed network risk to the portfolio optimization model,provides a new perspective for the implementation of comprehensive risk management, portfolio allocation and asset pricing, enriches the understanding of market microstructure and resource allocation efficiency, deepens the understanding of behavioral finance such as market anomalies, and expands the portfolio model and multi-factor Asset pricing model.

Key words: network risk, default distance, matrix regression, minimum spanning tree, sparse clustering, nonlinear superposition

中图分类号: