房价变动、产业转移与区域协调发展——以京津冀地区为例

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2018.1572

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 构建房价-资本模型，分析房地产行业投资收益对工业再投资的影响，发现：地区间适当的房地产行业投资收益差异有利于工业企业从核心地区向边缘地区转移，差异较大则导致资本流向房价增长过快地区的房地产行业；若地区间房地产行业投资收益差异既定，较大的经济发展差距对产业转移起阻碍作用，激烈的市场竞争则起促进作用。利用京津冀地区13个城市的数据构建面板门限模型，验证了：（1）较低的房价增长率促进了北京市相对低效的资本向外转移，但是北京市与周边地区较大的经济发展差距又阻碍了该趋势。（2）核心区流出的资本优先向次发达地区转移，而落后地区则有被彻底边缘化的风险。为实现京津冀地区协调发展，一方面要加强对京津冀地区房价的宏观调控、防止房价过快增长；另一方面要制定针对边缘地区的优惠政策，引导非首都功能向周边转移。

关键词: 房价, 房地产, 产业转移, 区域协调发展

Abstract: The coordinated development of the beijing-tianjin-hebei region is an important national development strategy in China. In recent years, the rapid growth of housing price has attracted wide attention from the society and made the impact of housing price on the economy an important topic of concern.On the basis of Footloose Capital Model, a "Housing Price-Capital" model is constructed in this paper, to analyze the impact of investment income of the real estate industry on industrial reinvestment. Through the numerical simulation of the model, the following conclusions can be drawn:(1) the appropriate inter-regional difference in investment income of the real estate industry is conducive to the transfer of industrial enterprises from core area to surrounding area, while the huge difference will result in the flow of capital to the real estate industry in the core area. (2) If the inter-regional differences in investment returns of real estate industry are constant, the large economic development gap will hinder the industrial transfer, while the fierce market competition will promote it. Following that, based on the annual data of 13 cities in the beijing-tianjin-hebei region from 2005 to 2017, a panel threshold model is built to analyzes the impact mechanism of housing price, per capita GDP and industrial scale on real estate development investment and the fixed asset investment in the primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry (excluding real estate) respectively. The following conclusions can be drawn from panel threshold model:(1) the rising housing price has "crowding out effect" and "wealth effect" on the fixed asset investment in all industries. Therein, the "crowding out effect" is the most significant in the primary industry, and the "wealth effect" is the most significant in the tertiary industry (excluding real estate). (2) Under government control, reasonable housing price growth is conducive to guiding the transfer of capital from the real estate industry to other industries. (3) The dependence of fixed asset investment in the tertiary industry (excluding real estate) and the real estate industry on the industrial scale is smaller than that in the primary industry and the secondary industry, but more inclined to the economically developed regions.
Based on above research, the following suggestions are put forward:(1) the core area becoming a metropolis is the final result of regional integration and the best choice to improve the overall utilization efficiency of regional resources. Economic aggregate, technology, political and other advantages will inevitably accelerate the growth of investment in core areas. On the one hand, the government should strictly implement the principle of "housing residence instead of vicious speculation" and encourage capital flow from the real estate industry to the real economy, thus promoting the upgrading of industrial structure. On the other hand, industrial policies restrict investment in inefficient industries and force low-value-added industries to move out of the region, so as to enhance the economic radiation capacity of large cities and promote the coordinated development of regional economy.(2) the economic hinterland is the foundation on which big cities rely for their existence. The housing price policy and industrial incentive policy should be comprehensively utilized to build a stepped economic hinterland:(a) With the development of economy, the rise of house price is inevitable. For the less developed areas, reasonable housing price growth can screen out and undertake the transfer of the core area of relatively efficient industries. At the same time, the policy of "stabilizing the housing price" is also conducive to the transfer of relatively inefficient capital from the sub-developed areas to the marginal areas, so as to avoid the real estate industry in the sub-developed areas "squeezing" the high-quality capital from the marginal areas. (b) Low transaction cost can accelerate the flow of capital, but the most marginal areas are at an absolute disadvantage in the game of regional development. Therefore, appropriate local industrial protection policies are necessary for the most marginal areas. Investment-oriented incentives should be used as far as possible to reduce the barriers of protection policies to regional integration. Marginal areas should pay more attention to maintaining the stability of housing prices and avoid harming the sustainable development of primary and secondary industries.

Key words: house price, real estate, industry transfer, coordinated development of regions

中图分类号:

F061.5

唐松林, 周文兵, 王国成. 房价变动、产业转移与区域协调发展——以京津冀地区为例[J]. 中国管理科学, 2021, 29(3): 14-23.

TANG Song-lin, ZHOU Wen-bing, WANG Guo-cheng. House Price Changes, Industry Transfer and Regional Coordinated Development[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2021, 29(3): 14-23.

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