需求不确定下碳期权采购对供应链决策及协调机制的影响研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1404

Abstract

Abstract:

The uncertainty of product market demand leads to the uncertainty of emission dependent manufacturers' demand for quotas. Carbon option gives manufacturers the right to lock the price of quotas before the implementation of the contract， which can not only avoid the risk caused by the uncertain price of carbon trading market， but also mitigate the impact of the uncertain quantity of quota demand. Aiming at the two-stage supply chain formed by emission-dependent manufacturers and their retailers， the impact of carbon option procurement on supply chain decision-making and coordination mechanism is discussed. The findings are as follows：（1） Under decentralized decision-making， carbon option procurement expands manufacturers' quota procurement volume， making their production more flexible， thus better meeting retailers' flexible order demand and driving retailers' profits to increase； In addition， when the option price and exercise price meet the threshold conditions， the manufacturer can hedge the risk caused by the uncertainty of carbon quota purchase at a lower cost and improve its own profits. （2） Under centralized decision-making， the risk weakening effect of carbon option procurement extends to the entire supply chain system， and the total profit of the supply chain can also be improved within a reasonable parameter range. （3） When retailers and manufacturers share the cost of carbon option purchase and exercise， if the cost sharing coefficient and fixed cost meet the incentive compatibility conditions， the optimal profit of the whole supply chain and the profit improvement goal of the two members can be achieved at the same time， and the profits of both manufacturers and retailers exceed the decentralized decision-making without coordination mechanism， which verifies the effectiveness of the carbon option cost sharing mechanism.

Key words: demand uncertainty, carbon options, quota procurement, cost sharing

CLC Number:

F274

Wenfang Shang,Xintao Gu,Tao Li. Study on the Influence of Carbon Option Purchase Quota Based on Demand Uncertainty on Supply Chain Decision-making and Coordination Mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(8): 329-344.

Figures/Tables 17

符号	说明	符号	说明
$w 1$	第一阶段的批发价格	$g$	单位产品的商誉损失
$w 2$	第二阶段的批发价格	$s$	单位碳配额的转售价格
$c 1$	第一阶段的生产成本	$p$	单位产品的零售价格
$c 2$	第二阶段的生产成本	$λ$	成本共担比例
v	单位缺货成本	$T$	固定费用
$r$	单位产品的残值	$π r i$	零售商的利润
$k$	单位产品的碳排放上限	$π m i$	制造商的利润
$e$	单位产品的实际碳排放量	$π i$	供应链的总利润
$p e$	单位碳配额的行权价格	决策变量
$p 0$	单位碳配额的价格	$q i$	制造商购买的碳配额量
$p b$	单位碳配额的期权价格	$Q i$	零售商第一阶段订货量

最优决策	基准模型	碳期权模型	碳期权协调模型
$q i * e - k$	$F - 1 w 2 - c 2 + g - p 0 e - k w 2 - c 2 + g - s e - k$	$F - 1 w 2 - c 2 + g - p e + p b e - k w 2 - c 2 + g - p e e - k$	$F w 2 - c 2 + g - 1 - λ p b + p e e - k w 2 - c 2 + g - 1 - λ p e e - k - 1$
$Q i *$	$F - 1 w 2 - w 1 w 2 - r$	$F - 1 w 2 - w 1 w 2 - r$	$F w 2 - w 1 w 2 - r + λ p e e - k - 1$

最优决策	基准模型	碳期权模型
$q i *' e - k$	$F - 1 p + v - c 2 + g - p 0 e - k p + v - c 2 + g - s e - k$	$F - 1 p + v - c 2 + g - p e + p b e - k p + v - c 2 + g - p e e - k$
$Q i *'$	$F - 1 c 2 - c 1 s e - k - r + c 2$	$F - 1 c 2 - c 1 c 2 - r$

参数	$w 1 = 220$	$w 1 = 230$	$w 1 = 240$	$w 1 = 250$	$w 1 = 260$	$w 1 = 270$	$w 1 = 280$
$q b *$	490.84	490.84	490.84	490.84	490.84	490.84	490.84
$Q b *$	274.67	261.47	247.56	232.55	215.84	196.36	171.84
$q b *'$	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58
$Q b *'$	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00
$π r b *$	46124.3	43443.17	40897.3	38495.62	36251.91	34187.97	32341.18
$π m b *$	19867.05	22422.55	24760.8	26857.19	28670.42	30126.89	31075.87
$π b *'$	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03

参数	$w 2 = 270$	$w 2 = 280$	$w 2 = 290$	$w 2 = 300$	$w 2 = 310$	$w 2 = 320$	$w 2 = 330$
$q b *$	480.27	484.13	487.64	490.84	493.79	496.53	499.07
$Q b *$	181.32	203.26	219.54	232.55	243.41	252.72	260.88
$q b *'$	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58	520.58
$Q b *'$	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00	300.00
$π r b *$	41404.73	40297.5	39341.47	38495.62	37735.2	37043.66	36409.16
$π m b *$	22318.87	24211.71	25669.39	26857.19	27858.22	28721.31	29478.04
$π b *'$	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03	66084.03

参数	$c 1 = 110$	$c 1 = 120$	$c 1 = 130$	$c 1 = 140$	$c 1 = 150$	$c 1 = 160$	$c 1 = 170$
$Q b *$	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55
$q b *$	518.94	518.94	518.94	518.94	518.94	518.94	518.94
$Q b *'$	418.68	378.68	348.53	322.30	297.54	272.63	245.86
$q b *'$	546.26	546.26	546.26	546.26	546.26	546.26	546.26
$π r b *$	38582.29	38582.29	38582.29	38582.29	38582.29	38582.29	38582.29
$π m b *$	36537.95	34212.44	31886.93	29561.42	27235.91	24910.40	22584.89
$π b *'$	79849.90	76143.80	72570.40	69472.01	66480.14	63716.38	61194.79

参数	$c 2 = 170$	$c 2 = 180$	$c 2 = 190$	$c 2 = 200$	$c 2 = 210$	$c 2 = 220$	$c 2 = 230$
$Q b *$	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55	232.55
$q b *$	526.48	524.14	521.64	518.94	516.00	512.80	509.28
$Q b *'$	241.05	265.71	283.58	297.54	308.96	318.60	326.91
$q b *'$	549.77	548.64	547.47	546.26	545.00	543.69	542.32
$π r b *$	38596.97	38592.73	38587.88	38582.29	38575.77	38568.08	38558.88
$π m b *$	29693.30	28873.85	28054.71	27235.91	26417.51	25599.59	24782.23
$π b *'$	68299.58	67568.02	66976.46	66480.14	66053.31	65679.52	65347.62

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Study on the Influence of Carbon Option Purchase Quota Based on Demand Uncertainty on Supply Chain Decision-making and Coordination Mechanism

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