主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

   

Robust Optimization Approach for Repetitive Project Scheduling

Li-Hui ZHANG   

  1. , 235000,
  • Received:2024-06-04 Revised:2025-10-09 Accepted:2025-11-19
  • Contact: ZHANG, Li-Hui
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(72171081)

Abstract: This study addresses the challenges of repetitive construction projects that frequently encounter uncertainties such as extreme weather and resource shortages, leading to schedule delays and budget overruns. Current approaches like stochastic and fuzzy optimization face limitations in practical applications due to distribution information requirements, while existing robust scheduling methods lack quantitative analysis of uncertainty propagation. We investigate the time-cost trade-off problem through a robust optimization lens, focusing on developing scheduling plans resistant to duration fluctuations in repetitive activities. The proposed framework integrates geometric analysis of work continuity constraints with robust optimization theory. At its core lies a dynamic controlling path identification mechanism that mathematically traces delay propagation patterns through repetitive units using Line of Balance (LOB) principles. This enables strategic allocation of protective buffers along geometrically determined critical paths rather than uniform protection across all activities. A two-stage optimization architecture combines budget-constrained uncertainty modeling for worst-case scenario analysis with restricted uncertainty sets that prioritize critical path disruptions. The hybrid Genetic Algorithm-Binary Particle Swarm Optimization (GA-BPSO) algorithm implements a nested optimization logic where outer-layer genetic operations optimize crew deployment while inner-layer particle swarms simulate adversarial duration scenarios, effectively balancing solution robustness against implementation costs. Validation employs a bridge construction prototype featuring 5 sequential processes with 24 non-uniform units, incorporating real-world parameters including crew productivity thresholds, equipment cost gradients, and material expenditure patterns. The testbed models duration uncertainties through engineer-calibrated deviation ranges and right-skewed Beta distributions reflecting typical construction risk profiles. Results demonstrate that the controlling path mechanism successfully contains delay propagation while reducing idle time buffers by 18-25% compared to conventional robust approaches. The restricted uncertainty sets prove particularly effective in high-risk scenarios, maintaining 97%+ on-time completion rates despite clustered disturbances. The methodology shows strong adaptability across risk levels, enabling managers to strategically balance schedule protection levels against budget constraints through adjustable conservatism parameters. This research provides practitioners with a decision-support framework that systematically balances schedule robustness against resource costs in repetitive projects. The controlling path-driven approach offers infrastructure managers an effective tool for risk-informed scheduling, particularly valuable for capital-intensive projects with strict deadline constraints. The quantitative comparison of robustness costs under varying uncertainty levels enables adaptive strategy selection based on project risk profiles. These advancements bridge the gap between theoretical robust optimization and practical construction scheduling needs, extending the application scope of robustness analysis in project management.

Key words: repetitive projects, robust optimization, time-cost trade-off problem, GA-BPSO algorithm.