关键词: 供应链中断, 消费者国货意识, 动态微分博弈, 恢复策略

Abstract:

Amid the ongoing backlash against economic globalization， the instability and uncertainty of global supply chain systems have risen significantly. With the growing momentum of de-globalization in Western economies and the increasingly vocal advocacy for trade protectionism among Western politicians， China's domestic enterprises have encountered frequent supply chain disruptions. These unilateral actions have not only hindered China's participation in international trade cooperation but also posed serious challenges to the sustainable development of its manufacturing sector. Nevertheless， the innovation-driven “dual circulation” strategy—emphasizing domestic market potential—has created new opportunities for domestic manufacturing transformation. Against this backdrop， how local manufacturers can effectively leverage domestic consumption to recover from supply chain disruptions， and how different recovery scenarios and supply chain structures shape recovery outcomes are investigated.A dynamic game model is constructed involving three key actors： domestic manufacturers， domestic suppliers， and non-domestic suppliers. The model incorporates two representative recovery scenarios—low-end upgrading and high-end extension—and further integrates the evolution of consumer patriotism and different market response conditions. The decentralized and equity-sharing supply chain structures are compared to analyze the dynamic recovery paths and time differences among supply chain members and the overall system.The main findings are as follows　（1） Under both supply chain structures， recovery efforts by participants exhibit a decreasing trend over time； however， when disruptions persist and consumers have a strong memory coefficient of patriotic sentiment， the memory effect positively influences recovery efforts.（2） While consumer patriotism does not directly interact with the decision-making of manufacturers or domestic suppliers regarding effort levels， it does cause differentiated impacts on profit recovery. （3） In both recovery scenarios， greater consumer acceptance of new domestic products tends to crowd out original product lines， thereby weakening overall recovery effort across the supply chain. （4） The influence of marketing recognition on manufacturer recovery time exhibits scenario-dependent effects： it facilitates recovery under high-end extension but hinders it under low-end upgrading. （5） Compared with the decentralized structure， the equity-sharing structure better balances the recovery timing between manufacturers and domestic suppliers and alleviates financial risk for suppliers in the early stage of low-end upgrading. However， it also weakens the positive effect of consumer patriotism on system recovery. （6） From the perspective of system-wide profit recovery， the manufacturer consistently acts as the bottleneck， with a pronounced “short board effect.” This is particularly evident in the equity-sharing structure， where manufacturers demonstrate a more significant free-riding tendency， especially under the high-end extension scenario.

Key words: supply chain disruptions, consumer awareness of domestic products, dynamic differential game, recovery strategies