关键词: 电力系统, 净负荷预测, 碳排放, 大气污染, 优化调度

Abstract: Renewable energy integration and the control of air pollutants and carbon emissions from coal-fired power generation are the primary pathways leading to the green transformation of the power system. Taking a regional grid consisting of wind power plants and coal-fired plants as an example, this study proposes a hybrid net load forecasting method incorporating wind power and system load fluctuation characteristics. Based on the proposed hybrid forecasting method, NRMSE is reduced by 4.8% and 9.5% on average compared to direct forecasting and indirect forecasting. A Gaussian model is then used to fit the forecasting error, and a dynamic dispatch model is constructed that considers the uncertainty of the net load and various emission control measures. With the results of the above models, the effects of different emission control policies on power dispatch plans are analyzed and compared with each other. The results indicate that the "air pollution reduction" and "carbon reduction" of the power system can be synergistically managed in the scheduling process. That is, measures to control carbon emissions can simultaneously reduce air pollutants, and vice versa. Furthermore, compared with the non-cooperative carbon emission reduction mode among power generation enterprises (units), allowing power generation enterprises (units) to share carbon emission rights through transfer or trading can further optimize the allocation of system resources and reduce the cost of abatement. Additionally, compared with controlling the total amount of air pollutants emitted, the spatial-temporal distribution strategy accounting for meteorological and ecological differences, can more effectively mitigate the impact of the power system on neighboring habitats and achieve targeted improvement of air pollution. In particular, under the spatial-temporal distribution strategy, the power system's contribution to the pollution level in heavily polluted areas has dropped from 53.7% to 37.4%, effectively improving the level of accurate air pollution control, effectively improving the level of precise air pollution control.

Key words: power system, net load forecasting, carbon emissions, air pollution, optimal dispatch