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政府干预、市场情绪与市场稳定性——基于投资者异质信念视角

尹涛, 宋自涵, 王一鸣, 张顺明   

  1. 华东政法大学商学院, 上海 201620 中国
    浙江清华长三角研究院数字金融研究中心, 浙江 314107 中国
    北京大学经济学院, 北京 100871 中国
    中国人民大学财政金融学院, 北京 100872 中国
  • 收稿日期:2026-03-23 修回日期:2026-07-25 接受日期:2026-08-04
  • 通讯作者: 尹涛

Government Intervention, Market Sentiment and Market Stability—From the Perspective of Heterogeneous Investor Beliefs

  1. , 201620, China
    , 314107, China
    , 100871, China
    , 100872, China
  • Received:2026-03-23 Revised:2026-07-25 Accepted:2026-08-04

摘要: 本文从异质信念视角出发,构建了包含基本面交易者、技术交易者与稳定者三类主体的资产定价模型,结合沪深300指数数据与多情景数值模拟,考察政府干预与市场情绪对A股市场稳定性的影响机制。研究发现:第一,政府干预能有效引导价格向基础价值回归,避免市场价格的过度扭曲。第二,情绪具有独特的“抑制作用”,能促使投资者结构调整并平抑波动。第三,情绪与政府的交互作用会导致异质主体比例长期波动,收敛速度明显放缓,深刻反映了救市过程中的多方博弈。基于上述发现,本文提出相应的政策建议,以增强市场稳定性,防范系统性金融风险。

关键词: 政府干预, 情绪, 异质信念, 市场稳定, 资产定价

Abstract: From the perspective of heterogeneous beliefs, this paper constructs an asset pricing model that includes three types of agents: fundamental traders, technical traders, and stabilizers. By integrating data from the CSI 300 Index with multi-scenario numerical simulations, it examines the mechanisms through which government intervention and market sentiment influence the stability of the A-share market. The findings are as follows: First, government intervention can effectively guide prices back to their fundamental values, thereby avoiding excessive price distortions. Second, sentiment exerts a unique "restraining effect," which facilitates adjustments in investor structure and helps stabilize fluctuations. Third, the interaction between sentiment and government intervention leads to prolonged fluctuations in the proportion of heterogeneous agents, significantly slowing the rate of convergence. This deeply reflects the multi-party game inherent in market rescue operations. Based on these findings, this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations to enhance market stability and mitigate systemic financial risks.

Key words: Government Intervention, Sentiment, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Market Stability, Asset Pricing