关键词: 禁售燃油车政策, LEAP模型, 燃料生命周期, 节能减排, 环境效益

Abstract:

As countries around the world accelerate toward carbon neutrality， many have announced official timelines for phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles. As the world’s largest automobile market， China faces mounting pressure to decarbonize its transport sector and mitigate air pollution. However， significant regional disparities in power supply structures have introduced considerable uncertainty regarding the emission reduction benefits and implementation feasibility of the fuel-vehicle ban policies across different regions. Therefore， scientific identification of the phase-out paths of fuel vehicles and their synergistic environmental benefits in different regions of China is essential for achieving low-carbon transport transitions and regionally targeted emission reductions. It focuses on six major power grid regions in China and systematically assesses the optimal timing and environmental impacts of implementing fuel vehicle bans. Based on life-cycle operating cost （LCOD） analysis， and informed by China’s automotive development trajectory and international electric vehicle （EV） adoption experience， potential policy implementation time points across regions is determined. Accordingly， it establishes four policy scenarios of the baseline （BAU）， the ban on fuel vehicle （BFV）， the promotion of clean energy power （PCEP） and the hybrid scenario （BFV+PCEP）. A Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning （LEAP） model is constructed to simulate the regional energy consumption and environmental impacts under different scenarios from 2021 to 2050， incorporating fuel life-cycle emissions across multiple passenger vehicle technologies. The results indicate that implementing fuel vehicle bans in conjunction with power structure optimization can significantly reduce energy demand and achieve synergistic reductions in CO₂， CO， and NO_x emissions across all regions， with earlier implementation yielding more substantial benefits. However， in regions with high reliance on coal-fired power， such as East， North， and Northwest China， the policy may increase SO₂ and PM emissions in the medium to long term， particularly by 2040 and 2050， resulting in net negative environmental outcomes. Thus， accelerating coal power decarbonization is crucial to avoid the “carbon reduction but pollution increase” dilemma.Model input data are primarily drawn from historical records on regional vehicle ownership， the 14th Five-Year Plans， EV penetration forecasts， China’s national greenhouse gas inventory， and pollutant emission factor databases， ensuring both temporal relevance and regional representativeness. Regional timelines are identified for fuel vehicle bans， the energy and environmental co-benefits are quantified under different policy combinations， and an integrated “ban-plus-clean-electricity” transition pathway is proposed. The findings provide theoretical and practical insights to guide China’s regionally differentiated， phased transition toward low-carbon transport and energy systems.

Key words: banning fuel vehicles policy, LEAP model, fuel life circle, energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental benefits