基于竞争失效和任务失效的隐性故障系统视情维修决策

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1568

中国管理科学 ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 226-238.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1568cstr: 32146.14.j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1568

基于竞争失效和任务失效的隐性故障系统视情维修决策

韩梦莹¹, 杨力², 邱青安³(), 康逢明⁴

^1.河北经贸大学经济学院，河北石家庄 050061
^2.北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院，北京 100191
^3.北京理工大学管理学院，北京 100081
^4.内蒙古大学经济管理学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010021

收稿日期:2024-09-09 修回日期:2025-01-07 出版日期:2025-12-25 发布日期:2025-12-25
通讯作者: 邱青安 E-mail:qiu_qingan@bit.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(72371030);国家自然科学基金项目(72001026);北京理工大学青年教师学术启动项目(XSQD-6120220141);河北省教育厅科学研究项目(BJS2023029);河北经贸大学科学研究与发展计划基金项目(2023QN02)

Condition-based Maintenance Model for a System with Hidden Failures Based on Competing Failures and Mission Failures

Mengying Han¹, Li Yang², Qingan Qiu³(), Fengming Kang⁴

^1.School of Economics，Hebei University of Economics and Business，Shijiazhuang 050061，China
^2.School of Reliability and Systems Engineering，Beihang University，Beijing 100191，China
^3.School of Management，Beijing Institute of Technology，Beijing 100081，China
^4.School of Economics and Management，Inner Mongolia University，Hohhot 010021，China

Received:2024-09-09 Revised:2025-01-07 Online:2025-12-25 Published:2025-12-25
Contact: Qingan Qiu E-mail:qiu_qingan@bit.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

隐性故障系统通常具有非连续任务特性，但任务失效往往会导致重大经济损失。本文针对具有竞争失效机制的隐性故障系统，在考虑双重点检策略的基础上，构建了基于任务失效的视情维修决策模型。首先，通过建立系统运行状态与任务执行结果之间的关系，利用检测质量与检测结果分析系统更新情形，推导每种更新情形的发生概率；然后，采用更新报酬理论构建了以长期运行期望成本率最小化为目标的维修模型，以优化小检间隔期。最后，以继电保护系统为例验证策略和模型的有效性和适用性。研究结果表明：缺陷系统任务失效率显著影响系统的维修决策，考虑缺陷系统任务失效的维修建模能够为设备管理者提供理论参考；与单一点检策略相比，当小检成本小于阈值水平时，双重点检策略更具有成本优势，这为企业更好地规划检测策略提供理论依据和技术支撑。

关键词: 竞争失效, 隐性故障, 任务失效, 双重点检, 视情维修

Abstract:

Systems with hidden failures typically do not perform missions continuously， but mission failures in such systems can lead to substantial economic losses and severe damage. Condition-based maintenance （CBM） is an effective strategy to enhance system reliability and mitigate the risk of hidden failure. A CBM model is developed for systems subject to competing and hidden failures by incorporating mission failure behavior and a multiple inspection policy. The arrival of system missions follows a Poisson process， and the outcome of mission execution depends on the system's state. Periodic minor inspections， which are imperfect， are scheduled to detect the system’s state， while major inspections， which are perfect， are conducted only upon mission failure. Under this policy， all the possible scenarios for minor inspection preventive renewal， major inspection preventive renewal， minor inspection corrective renewal， major inspection corrective renewal， and age-based preventive renewal are analyzed， and the probabilities of each scenario occurring are derived. Consequently， the CBM model is formulated using the Renewal Reward Theorem， aiming to minimize the long-run expected cost rate， with the minor inspection interval serving as the decision variable. Finally， the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed maintenance model are validated through comparisons with two other models. The results indicate that considering mission failure due to defective systems is crucial when constructing maintenance models for multi-state systems with hidden failures， and that multiple inspection policy offers greater cost advantages than single inspection policy when the minor inspection cost is below a threshold level.

Key words: competing failures, hidden failures, mission failures, multiple inspections, condition-based maintenance

中图分类号:

O212

韩梦莹,杨力,邱青安, 等. 基于竞争失效和任务失效的隐性故障系统视情维修决策[J]. 中国管理科学, 2025, 33(12): 226-238.

Mengying Han,Li Yang,Qingan Qiu, et al. Condition-based Maintenance Model for a System with Hidden Failures Based on Competing Failures and Mission Failures[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(12): 226-238.

图/表 18

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

表2

失效模式参数、缺陷检出率参数及任务活动参数"

$a 1$	$b 1$	$a 2$	$a 3$	$α$	$β$	$λ$	$μ W$	$σ W$	$W m$
0.2	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.6	5	1	0.2	1.2

表2

表3

成本参数值"

$C i$	$C I$	$C p$	$C f$	$C s$
0.5	2	1	1.2	10

表3

图9

图10

图11

图12

图13

图14

表5

各成本参数不同取值下的模型最优解"

参数

取值

T *

E C R (T *)

E C R (T *)

的平均单位增量

参数

取值

T *

E C R (T *)

E C R (T *)

的平均单位增量

C i

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2.0764

2.2261

2.3637

2.4854

2.5992

1.4970

1.3760

1.2170

1.1380

C I

1.5

2.5

0.8

0.7

2.2642

2.3140

2.3637

2.4106

2.4554

0.0996

0.0994

0.0938

0.0896

C p

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.2

0.7

0.8

2.2322

2.2767

2.3213

2.3637

2.4019

0.2225

0.2230

0.2120

0.2360

C f

1.2

2.4

1.6

1.8

0.8

2.3020

2.3637

2.4255

2.4872

2.5489

0.3085

0.3090

0.3085

C s

0.8

0.7

0.6

1.9459

2.1646

2.3637

2.5449

2.7202

0.1094

0.0996

0.0906

0.0877

表5

参考文献 31

[1]	Enquiry Committee. Report of the enquiry committee on grid disturbance in Northern Region on 30th July 2012 and in Northern， Eastern & North-Eastern Region on 31st July 2012［R］. Working Paper， Enquiry Committee， 2012.
[2]	薛士敏，孙文鹏，高峰，等. 基于精确隐性故障模型的输电系统连锁故障风险评估［J］. 电网技术， 2016， 40（4）： 1012-1017.
	Xue S M， Sun W P， Gao F， et al. Risk assessment of transmission system cascading failure based on accurate hidden failure model［J］. Power System Technology， 2016， 40（4）： 1012-1017.
[3]	Qiu Q， Cui L， Kong D. Availability and maintenance modeling for a two-component system with dependent failures over a finite time horizon［J］. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers， Part O： Journal of Risk and Reliability， 2019， 233（2）： 200-210.
[4]	Qiu Q A， Cui L R， Shen J Y， et al. Availability and maintenance modeling for systems subject to dependent hard and soft failures［J］. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry， 2018， 34（4）： 513-527.
[5]	Peng R， Liu B， Zhai Q， et al. Optimal maintenance strategy for systems with two failure modes［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2019， 188： 624-632.
[6]	Li Y， Zio E. Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system［J］. Renewable Energy， 2012， 41： 235-244.
[7]	李彦夫，门天立. 列车车轮多边形磨损及其噪音研究综述［J］.振动测试与诊断，2019，39（6）： 1143-1152+1355.
	Li Y F， Men T L. An overview of polygonal wear and generated noise of train wheels［J］. Journal of Vibration， Measurement & Diagnosis， 2019， 39（6）： 1143-1152+1355.
[8]	Han M， Yang J， Zhao X. Joint optimization of inspection， maintenance， and spare ordering policy considering defective products loss［J］. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics， 2021， 32（5）： 1167-1179.
[9]	Zhao X， Li R， Han H，et al. Condition-based switching， loading， and age-based maintenance policies for standby systems［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2025， 321（2）： 565-585.
[10]	沈杨. 电力系统继电保护可靠性评估［J］. 科技与创新， 2016（20）： 82.
	Shen Y. Reliability evaluation of relay protection in power system ［J］. Science and Technology & Innovation， 2016（20）： 82.
[11]	王文彬，赵斐，彭锐. 基于三阶段故障过程的多重点检策略优化模型［J］. 系统工程理论与实践， 2014， 34（1）： 223-232.
	Wang W B， Zhao F， Peng R. Modeling of the optimal multiple inspection policy based on a three-stage failure process［J］. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice， 2014， 34（1）： 223-232.
[12]	Driessen J P C， Peng H， van Houtum G J. Maintenance optimization under non-constant probabilities of imperfect inspections［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2017， 165： 115-123.
[13]	Zhang F， Shen J， Liao H， et al. Optimal preventive maintenance policy for a system subject to two-phase imperfect inspections［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2021， 205： 107254.
[14]	Qi F， Huang M. Optimal condition-based maintenance policy for systems with mutually dependent competing failure［J］. Quality and Reliability Engineering International， 2023， 39（5）： 1831-1847.
[15]	Cao Y. Modeling the effects of dependence between competing failure processes on the condition-based preventive maintenance policy［J］. Applied Mathematical Modelling， 2021， 99： 400-417.
[16]	张晓红，何于港，张剑飞，等. 相依多模失效下冷贮备系统最优切换及视情维护决策［J］. 控制与决策， 2023， 38（9）： 2672-2680.
	Zhang X H， He Y G， Zhang J F， et al. Optimal switching and condition based maintenance decision of cold standby system subject to dependent multimode failures［J］. Control and Decision， 2023， 38（9）： 2672-2680.
[17]	Moubray J. Reliability－centered maintenance［M］. 2th ed. New York： Industrial Press， 1997.
[18]	王玉磊，应黎明，陶海洋，等. 基于效能-成本的智能变电站二次设备运维策略优化［J］. 电力自动化设备， 2016， 36（6）： 182-188.
	Wang Y L， Ying L M， Tao H Y， et al. Operation-maintenance strategy optimization based on efficiency-cost sensitivity analysis for secondary equipment of intelligent substation［J］. Electric Power Automation Equipment， 2016， 36（6）： 182-188.
[19]	张延静，马义中，沈静远，等. 具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统检测策略研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2021， 29（12）： 237-248.
	Zhang Y J， Ma Y Z， Shen J Y， et al. Inspection strategy for a multi-state competing failure system with hidden failures［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2021， 29（12）： 237-248.
[20]	Zhang Y， Shen J， Ma Y. An optimal preventive maintenance policy for a two-stage competing-risk system with hidden failures［J］. Computers & Industrial Engineering， 2021， 154： 107135.
[21]	Christer A H， Waller W M. Reducing production downtime using delay-time analysis［J］. Journal of the Operational Research Society，1984， 35（6）： 499-512.
[22]	郑睿，吕文元. 基于时间延迟理论的预防维修模型及案例研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2010， 18（2）： 48-54.
	Zheng R， Lv W Y. Modelling of preventive maintenance based on the delay time theory and case study［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2010， 18（2）： 48-54.
[23]	杨建华，韩梦莹. 基于延迟时间理论的备件维修多目标优化模型［J］. 系统工程与电子技术， 2019， 41（8）： 1903-1912.
	Yang J H， Han M Y. Multi-objective optimization model for spare parts maintenance based on delay-time theory［J］. Systems Engineering and Electronics， 2019， 41（8）： 1903-1912.
[24]	Rodrigues A J S， Cavalcante C A V， Lee C G. A general inspection and replacement policy for protection systems subject to shocks with state dependent effect［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2024， 251： 110397.
[25]	Qiu Q， Maillart L M， Prokopyev O A， et al. Optimal condition-based mission abort decisions［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability， 2023， 72（1）： 408-425.
[26]	Qiu Q， Li R， Zhao X. Failure risk management： Adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions［J］. Risk Analysis， 2025， 45（2）： 421-440.
[27]	Peng R， He X， Zhong C， et al. Preventive maintenance for heterogeneous parallel systems with two failure modes［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2022， 220： 108310.
[28]	Han M， Ma Z， Ma S， et al. Joint optimization of condition-based maintenance and spare ordering strategy for a multistate competing failure system［J］. IEEE Access， 2023， 11： 37006-37020.
[29]	Ross S M. Introduction to Probability Models［M］. 11th ed. Amsterdam： Academic Press， 2014.
[30]	Tavangar M， Asadi M. A study on the mean past lifetime of the components of （n - k+1）-out-of-n system at the system level［J］. Metrika， 2010， 72（1）： 59-73.
[31]	徐志超，李晓明，杨玲君. 基于全寿命周期成本的继电保护装置退出时间评估［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2013， 37（21）： 151-155.
	Xu Z C， Li X M， Yang L J. Evaluation for exit time of relay protection devices based on life cycle cost［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems， 2013， 37（21）： 151-155.

基于竞争失效和任务失效的隐性故障系统视情维修决策

Condition-based Maintenance Model for a System with Hidden Failures Based on Competing Failures and Mission Failures

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 18

参考文献 31

相关文章 1

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0