关键词: 预售, 顾客退货, 看跌期权合同, 产能约束, 报童模型

Abstract:

In recent years， the pre-sale model has emerged in the e-commerce sector， becoming increasingly favored by retailers and consumers， and gradually becoming a regular sales model. Major e-commerce platforms have launched discounted pre-sale activities to stimulate consumption and boost sales. However， behind the high turnover， retailers are also faced with the problem of returns triggered by products that fail to meet consumer expectations， a problem that is becoming increasingly prominent. For the production side， the prevailing capacity constraint problem is one of the major factors restricting business development. Moreover， due to the limited capacity of suppliers， some retailers with market advantages are unable to meet the market demand promptly， which will inevitably affect the optimal decision-making of the upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain and may result in the loss of profits of the supply chain as a whole. To effectively solve the “double marginalization” problem caused by the suppliers and retailers in the supply chain only pursuing their own profit maximization under the above conditions， option contracts can be used to hedge the risks related to supply chain uncertainty.Based on the analysis above， a supply chain consisting of a supplier and a retailer is considered， where the supplier is a Stackelberg leader offering both wholesale price and put option contracts to the retailer. The retailer facing stochastic demand and customer returns sells its products at a discounted price in the pre-sale period and at a normal price in the on-sale period. The optimal wholesale ordering and option ordering strategies of the retailer and the optimal option ordering and strike pricing strategies of the supplier are investigated by constructing the newsvendor model with and without supplier capacity constraints， respectively. Finally， the main findings and important parameters of the paper are numerically verified and additional managerial insights are provided.It is shown that the supplier's capacity level affects both the supplier and retailer's decisions， and the profitability of both can be optimized only when the capacity reaches a critical value. The retailer's optimal wholesale order quantity and option order quantity， the supplier's optimal option order price and strike price， and their expected profits are all decreasing functions of the customer return rate. Consequently， when higher customer returns occur in the market， suppliers need to adjust their pricing decisions to promote retailers to order more products； and retailers need to focus on consumers' needs and preferences and improve the sales process to enhance consumers' satisfaction with their products. The retailer's presale influences both the retailer's ordering and the supplier's pricing decisions and affects the retailer more significantly. As a follower in the supply chain， retailers should increase the price of pre-sale products when adopting the pre-sale strategy， which will benefit their profits.

Key words: presale, customer return, put option contract, capacity constraints, newsvendor model