关键词: 生鲜农产品, 零售商, 突发事件, 消费者囤货, 订货与保鲜

Abstract: The frequent occurrence of sudden events such as heavy rainfall, floods, typhoons, and ice disasters poses significant risks to the supply disruption of fresh produce. Consumers, driven by concerns over potential shortages, tend to engage in stockpiling behaviors to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions. Such behavior leads to an early release of demands, resulting in short-term supply shortages. To address the supply-demand imbalance, fresh produce retailers adopt strategies such as increasing order quantities and maintaining safety inventory to hedge against risks. In practice, the inventory capacity of a retailer is constrained by factors such as warehouse quantity and shelf space, which restrict order volumes and complicate procurement decisions. Additionally, given the perishable nature of fresh produce, the retailers invest in preservation resources to mitigate spoilage losses. In this context, it is of significant practical importance to study how the retailer can optimize ordering and freshness-keeping strategies in response to consumer stockpiling behavior influenced by sudden events. Based on this, this paper constructs a two-stage model of consumer stockpiling behavior under the probability of sudden events and the spoilage rate of fresh produce, examining the optimal freshness-keeping and ordering strategies of a retailer under different inventory capacity constraints. The results indicate that when inventory capacity is ample, the retailer can adopt differentiated strategies based on the spoilage rate and wholesale price of fresh produce. Specifically, for fresh produce with high spoilage rates and low wholesale prices, a high freshness-keeping and medium ordering strategy is adopted. For fresh produce with moderate spoilage rates and wholesale prices, a medium freshness-keeping and high ordering strategy is optimal for the retailer. For the produce with low spoilage rates and high wholesale prices, a low freshness-keeping and low ordering strategy is preferable. These different strategies enable the retailer to effectively mitigate supply disruption risks while maximizing profits. Conversely, the retailer's strategies exhibit distinct characteristics when inventory capacity is constrained. If inventory capacity is relatively low, the retailer typically adopts a uniform low freshness-keeping and high ordering strategy. This strategic choice is primarily driven by the hard constraint of inventory capacity, where the retailer must maximize market demand satisfaction within his limited inventory. When inventory capacity is relatively high, retailers have more flexibility strategies, allowing them to order either based on his own inventory capacity limit or according to actual demand. Additionally, in terms of the freshness-keeping strategies, the retailer should adopt more diversified and refined strategies based on the differentiated wholesale prices of fresh produce. This paper addresses the realistic scenario of supply disruption risks potentially triggered by sudden events. Considering the perishable nature of fresh produce, the model introduces consumer stockpiling behavior driven by supply interruption risks into the consumer utility function, and establishes a more comprehensive analytical framework for fresh produce supply chains, thereby expanding related theoretical research. Through quantitative analysis of the mathematical model, the study reveals the impact of inventory capacity constraints on the operational strategies of fresh produce retailers, providing theoretical foundations and practical guidance for retail enterprises in making operational decisions under the risk of sudden events.

Key words: fresh produce, retailer, emergency, consumer stockpiling, ordering and freshness-keeping