双碳背景下面向源荷互动的高分辨率新型电力系统建模

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1676

中国管理科学 ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 309-318.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1676cstr: 32146.14.j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1676

双碳背景下面向源荷互动的高分辨率新型电力系统建模

王博¹^,³, 李靖云³, 王兆华²^,³(), 陆彬²^,³, 张斌¹^,³

^1.北京理工大学管理学院，北京 100081
^2.北京理工大学经济学院，北京 100081
^3.多模态数据驱动的工业资源能源环境智能决策工业和信息化部重点实验室，北京 100081

收稿日期:2023-10-12 修回日期:2024-01-18 出版日期:2026-04-25 发布日期:2026-03-27
通讯作者: 王兆华 E-mail:wangzhaohua@bit.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(72243001);国家自然科学基金项目(72321002);国家自然科学基金项目(72533002);国家自然科学基金项目(72141302);国家自然科学基金项目(72140002)

High-Resolution Modeling of a New Power System with Source-Load Interactions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Bo Wang¹^,³, Jingyun Li³, Zhaohua Wang²^,³(), Bin Lu²^,³, Bin Zhang¹^,³

^1.School of Management，Beijing Institute of Technology，Beijing 100081，China
^2.School of Economics，Beijing Institute of Technology，Beijing 100081，China
^3.Multimodal Data-Driven Industrial Resources，Energy，and Environment Intelligent Decision Making Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology，Beijing 100081，China

Received:2023-10-12 Revised:2024-01-18 Online:2026-04-25 Published:2026-03-27
Contact: Zhaohua Wang E-mail:wangzhaohua@bit.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新型电力系统建设是构建我国新型能源体系的重要组成部分。针对电力系统转型规划问题，本文构建了面向源荷互动的新型电力系统模型，耦合了容量规划与运行模拟，实现了面向“双碳”目标的多时间尺度上的电力系统全局优化。结果表明：（1）2060年我国风光装机容量将达到57.5亿千瓦-64.8亿千瓦，火电仍将保持3亿~5亿千瓦。（2）需求侧管理将替代23%储能和38%火电的装机容量，减少电力系统投资5.8万亿元。同时，在源荷互动协同作用下，我国减排路径从先快后慢转变为先慢后快的模式。（3）在负荷尖峰时刻，需求侧管理将承担9.5%的顶峰压力。本研究提出了涵盖源荷互动的电力系统规划方法体系，考虑需求侧响应互动规划电力系统发展路径，为能源系统转型规划提供科学参考。

关键词: 新型电力系统, 需求侧管理, “双碳”目标, 高分辨率建模

Abstract:

Under carbon peaking and neutrality goals， coal power is being phased out. The rise of fluctuating renewable energy presents challenges in maintaining power system balance. And meeting peak load demands requires substantial investments in complementary facilities such as energy storage. However， long-term planning involving investments in backup capacity may result in excess power generation capacity. Research indicates that governments often increase power investments to address peak loads， despite their limited occurrence （5% or less annually）. Future research should focus on dynamically reducing peak loads through interactions between generation and load demand， while adapting to variable renewable energy output.Traditional power system capacity models neglect the evolving demand-side characteristics in new systems， inadequately capturing demand-side response interactions. Long-term models typically focus on reducing electricity consumption， missing the true source-demand dynamics. Short-term demand-side management often fails to impact capacity planning， potentially leading to the unnecessary planning of redundant backup capacity.The long-term capacity planning is combined with hourly operational simulations， creating a high-resolution model for the new power system with global optimization. It integrates demand-side management from electric vehicles， industrial， commercial， and residential sectors， thoroughly depicting the “generation-demand” interactive feedback mechanism. It relies on data from the China Statistical Yearbook， China Energy Statistical Yearbook， and Global Energy Monitor. Relevant parameters are extracted from reports by the State Grid Energy Research Institute and other expert studies.The findings indicate that， influenced by “generation-demand” interactions， China’s emission reduction trajectory has shifted from an initial rapid decline followed by a slower pace to a slower pace followed by accelerated reduction， aligning with a phased and steadily advancing transformation model. By 2060， China’s wind and solar capacity is expected to reach 5.75 to 6.48 billion kW， while coal power will maintain 300-500 million kW. Demand-side management is projected to replace 23% of energy storage and 38% of coal power capacity， reducing power system investment by 5.8 trillion CNY. Additionally， demand-side management will handle 9.5% of peak load pressures during peak hours. A planning methodology is proposed considering “generation-demand” interactions and demand-side management to guide the power system’s new development path， serving as a scientific reference for energy system transformation planning.

Key words: new power system, demand-side management, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, high-resolution modeling

中图分类号:

F206

王博,李靖云,王兆华, 等. 双碳背景下面向源荷互动的高分辨率新型电力系统建模[J]. 中国管理科学, 2026, 34(4): 309-318.

Bo Wang,Jingyun Li,Zhaohua Wang, et al. High-Resolution Modeling of a New Power System with Source-Load Interactions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(4): 309-318.

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情景	碳中和	政策约束	源荷互动
基准情景	×	×	×
无源荷互动碳中和情景	√	√	×
源荷互动下的碳中和情景	√	√	√

双碳背景下面向源荷互动的高分辨率新型电力系统建模

High-Resolution Modeling of a New Power System with Source-Load Interactions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

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