深入研究中国经济发展中二氧化碳排放增长的驱动因素和关键路径，对有的放矢地制定减排政策，发展低碳经济，应对气候变化有着重要的现实意义。本文基于WIOD提供的中国序列投入产出表，采用结构分解分析和结构路径分解方法考察了1995-2014年影响中国碳排放变动的主要因素和关键路径。结果表明：中国碳排放增长的最大驱动因素是经济规模的扩张；而抑制国内碳排放增长的最主要因素则是各部门碳排放强度的下降；中间投入产品结构的变动则进一步导致碳排放增长。从供给链路径来看，"非金属矿物制品业→（中间部门）→固定资本形成"和"电力燃气水的生产供应业→（中间部门）→固定资本形成"分别是驱动中国碳排放实现增长和下降的最重要路径类型。为有效降低碳排放，中国应加强碳排放强度在关键路径中的减排作用，促进生产的中间投入改革，优化需求产品结构，协调居民消费、投资与减排的关系。
As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide emissions, China has promised to reach its peak carbon emissions by 2030 or earlier, thus facing a major challenge on aspect of emission reduction for its potential impact on climate change. To efficiently realize green development, it's important to identify the driving factors as well as the critical supply chain paths that drive changes in life cycle CO2 emissions and aid both policy makers and decision makers by enabling the tracing of the change in key production chains over time. In this paper, based on the 1995-2014 linked Chinese environmental non-competitive (import) input-output tables, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and structural path decomposition (SPD) methods are applied to investigate the relative impact of various factors and extract critical supply chains involved in changes in CO2 emissions over this study period. The IO tables and historical carbon emissions data by sector for China range from 1995 to 2014, extending over a 20-year study period. The influence on changes of CO2 emissions derived from final demand is composed of six factors:sectoral emission intensity (c); intermediate input product structure (L); product structure of final demand (ψ); category composition of final demand (δ); per capita final demand (Y), and population (P). The detailed analysis reveals that the per capita final demand is the dominant driving factor in China's CO2 emissions growth, while the change of emission intensity of production in China greatly offset the growth of emissions, and intermediate input product structure further lead to emissions growth. From the perspective of supply chain paths, the top ranking path affecting CO2 emissions is identified to be "non-metallic mineral industry→construction→fixed capital formation". We also find that the supply chain paths with the largest increasing and decreasing overall impacts are "non-metallic mineral industry→fixed capital formation", and "Electricity, gas and water supply→fixed capital formation", respectively. And the conclusions of this paper provide insights into the driving factors influencing CO2 emissions and boost supervision of critical emissions supply chain paths, offering theoretical and practical supports for the policy makers and decision makers reasonable measures that can be applied progressively to aid in China's carbon abatement in reality.
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