在突发事件的应对中,应急决策过程的灾情信息具有动态性、不确定性等特征,从而使得整个应急救援过程中的决策都必须随信息更新而不断调整,本文在调研国内外相关研究的基础上,以地震为背景提出了基于信息更新的资源调配决策问题。文章结合灾情信息更新的特征,给出了应急救援响应的阶段划分;以此为基础建立了两阶段鲁棒-随机优化模型,通过虚拟储备库点及虚拟临时分发中心点的设计,实现了第一阶段调配结果对第二阶段调配决策的后效性调整决策;根据鲁棒优化及随机优化的特点,设计了相应的原始-对偶及L-Shaped Method算法对模型进行求解;最后,通过CPLEX软件编程求解,并进行情景生成下的算例分析,与其他方法比较分析,证明了文章所设计的模型在灾情信息更新下的优势。
With the deepening of research of Emergency Management, emergency decision-making process is characterized by dynamic and uncertainty of disaster information and complexity of the decision-making system environment. At the same time, decisions making of the whole emergency rescue needs to be constantly adjusted with scenario information updating. On the basis of domestic and foreign research, a two-stage decision model is proposed in this paper for relief allocation with disaster scenario information updating. From the characteristics of the actual relief allocation, a stages division of emergency rescue response is put forward combined with the feature of disaster information update. On this basis, a two-stage robust-stochastic optimization model is then established, to achieve aftereffect of adjustment decisions. For the results of the first stage allocation affect the second stage decisions by defining dummy repository and dummy temporary distribution center. According to the characteristics of the Robust Optimization and Stochastic Programming, the corresponding Primal-dual and L-Shaped Method algorithm is designed to solve model. Finally, these models were solved by CPLEX, and carried out numerical examples under scenarios generation. By comparing with other methods, the superiority of the models we design is demonstrated under disaster scenario information updating.
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