基于组合插值的GM(1,1)模型预测方法的改进与应用

中国管理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (2): 129-134.

基于组合插值的GM(1,1)模型预测方法的改进与应用

王晓佳, 杨善林

合肥工业大学理学院, 安徽合肥 230009

收稿日期:2010-12-20 修回日期:2011-12-09 出版日期:2012-04-29 发布日期:2012-04-25
基金资助:
"863"国家重大项目(2011AA05A116);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71101041);合肥工业大学基金项目(2010HGXJ0083);国家创新计划项目(111035954)

The Improvements and Applications of Forecasting Method in GM(1,1) Model Based on Combinative Interpolation

WANG Xiao-jia, YANG Shan-lin

College of Science, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China

Received:2010-12-20 Revised:2011-12-09 Online:2012-04-29 Published:2012-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从理论上分析了GM(1,1)模型中的背景值,提出组合插值的思想,利用分段线性插值函数与Newton插值公式结合的方法构造一类新的灰色预测模型CIGM(1,1),改进背景值的构造方法,克服现有的灰色改进模型的不足,为提高预测精度提供了新的途径。最后以2008年江苏省工业用电量数据为例,用本文提出的方法进行预测仿真,理论分析和应用实例表明了本文所提方法的有效性。

关键词: 灰色系统, 组合插值, 背景值, CIGM(1,1)模型

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the background value calculation in GM(1,1) model, put forward the idea of combination interpolation and construct a new class of gray prediction model which used piecewise linear interpolation function and Newton interpolation method. This model could overcome the lack of existed improved gray model and give a new way to improve the prediction accuracy. The simulation example using the improvement method is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Key words: grey system, combinative interpolation, background value, CIGM(1,1) model

中图分类号:

N941.5

王晓佳, 杨善林. 基于组合插值的GM(1,1)模型预测方法的改进与应用 [J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (2): 129-134.

WANG Xiao-jia, YANG Shan-lin. The Improvements and Applications of Forecasting Method in GM(1,1) Model Based on Combinative Interpolation[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (2): 129-134.

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