关键词: 突发公共卫生事件, 防护产品, 社会学习, 产品竞争, 先验概率

Abstract:

In the context of major public health emergency， in view of the existence of two competing medical protection products with different protection levels in the market， a game model is constructed to study the impact of consumers' social learning on supply chain decisions based on the interruption of product supply and the prior probability of consumer shortages. In order to characterize the demand function under social learning and product supply interruption， consumers are divided into two batches in the first sales cycle. When consumers have social learning behaviors， the second batch of consumers decide whether to buy higher protection level products based on the posterior probability of out-of-stock， which is formed by the prior probability of out-of-stock and the purchase strategy of the first batch of consumers， and the probability of supply interruption. If consumers do not have social learning， the first and second batch of consumers make decision both rely on their prior probability of stock-out and the probability of supply interruption. Research results show that： Consumers will choose to buy more products with higher protection level when they have a higher priori probability of being out-of-stock， and consumer demand also affected by the intensity of consumer social learning and the price difference between the two products. For retailers， when the product price difference is large， social learning will not affect the order quantity of higher protection level product in first sales cycle， and when the product price difference is small， the product order quantity will affect by social learning. Regardless of size of inventory capacity， when product price difference is too large or too small， social learning will not increase the profit of the supply chain， when price difference is at a moderate level， social learning can improve the supply chain profit. Finally， a numerical simulation example is used to analyze and verify the research results， and it could show the research conclusions more intuitively. The research in this paper has a certain theoretical guidance and practical reference for the supply and ordering of competitive epidemic prevention products under the background of the epidemic.

Key words: public health emergency, epidemic prevention products, social learning, products competition, prior probability