关键词: 城市更新, “三旧”改造, 房价增长率, 土地财政

Abstract:

While driving the rapid economic development， China's real estate industry is also showing a trend of rapid growth in housing prices. The long-term control mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market is still being explored. At the same time， after a round of rapid urbanization expansion， Chinese cities， especially large cities， have entered the era of "stock development" from "incremental development". Among them， urban renewal， as an important activity in the development of urban China， has become a hot issue of concern，and the 2019 Central Economic Work Conference also emphasized strengthening urban renewal and the improvement of existing housing. Therefore， does urban renewal play a role in restraining the rapid growth of housing prices？ More importantly， what is the mechanism of its influence？ Further， whether there are obvious differences between different cities？ What is the reason for the difference？ The answers to these questions will help us understand the role of urban renewal in regulating market economic activities. At the same time， it will also be an important decision-making reference for China to vigorously promote urban renewal and drive the direction of real estate transformation and upgrading policies in the future. As a pioneer and pathfinder of China's urban renewal and real estate market stock development， Guangdong’s “Three old regeneration” has become an important measure for urban renewal. Since 2009， when they received the pilot policy support for the “Three old regeneration”， cities in Guangdong have made certain achievements in integrating existing land resource elements， reshaping the vitality of urban functions， revitalizing existing low-efficiency land， and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading. effectiveness. It can be said that after more than ten years of policy innovation and practical exploration， the “Three old regeneration” has had an important impact on the urban renewal and real estate market of Guangdong Province.Therefore， the 2009-2019 urban panel data of Guangdong Province are used to study the impact of the “Three old regeneration” on the growth rate of urban housing prices in Guangdong Province based on the perspective of stock development.The results show that： ①the scale of the transformation of the “Three old regeneration” and the scale of old villagesregeneration has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of housing prices， indicating that the practice of the transformation of the “Three old regeneration” has restrained the excessive growth of housing prices to a certain extent； ②the transformation of the “Three old regeneration” and The inhibitory effect of the transformation of old villages on the growth rate of housing prices is spatially heterogeneous. Currently， it is more significant in non-Pearl River Delta regions than in the Pearl River Delta； ③The moderating effect shows that the higher the financial pressure on land， the less restrained the growth rate of housing prices； The higher the stock development motivation， the greater the degree of suppression of the growth rate of housing prices in cities.④ The mechanism test shows that the “Three old regeneration” has suppressed the growth of housing price growth by increasing housing supply and reducing the growth rate of local government land transfer income.Compared with the existing literature， the possible marginal contribution of this paper lies in the following two aspects. First， based on the perspective of urban stock development and China's unique urban renewal practice， the implementation effect of urban renewal is studied. Starting from the urban and regional scales， the macro effect of the “Three old regeneration” on the growth rate of housing prices in Guangdong Province is discussed. It complements other research scales on housing price regulation and expands and enriches the theoretical research on urban governance and real estate. Second， the existing research mainly focuses on case studies， and the relevant quantitative research is insufficient. Based on theoretical analysis， the impact of the “Three old regeneration” renovation practice on the growth rate of housing prices is further verified through empirical data and discusses in depth. Its moderating effect， intermediary effect， and regional heterogeneity not only help us understand the inner link between urban renewal and housing prices， but also answer the question of how to regulate the path of stable development of the real estate market to a certain extent. The government provides decision-making reference for promoting the steady development， transformation and upgrading of real estate by city-specific policies.

Key words: urban regeneration, “Three old regeneration”, house price growth rate, land finance