关键词: 突发公共卫生事件, 新冠病毒疫苗接种意识, 社会传播, 多重网络, 复杂系统仿真

Abstract: COVID-19 is a global public health emergency that has not been encountered in a century. Since the development and evolution of this crisis presents remarkable unconventional features, it is the most effective way to prevent and control the epidemic to vaccinate the public against COVID-19. However, some people have a biased perception of the iatrogenic risk of COVID-19 vaccination, leading to hesitation or negative attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination, and they still refuse or delay vaccination when vaccine services are available. In addition, some people refuse to be vaccinated because of the cognitive bias of the COVID-19 vaccination due to social prejudice. Therefore, it is of great significance for epidemic prevention and control that how to promote the effective diffusion of vaccination consciousness among the public through the integration of multiple channels, create a favorable atmosphere for COVID-19 vaccination, and further enhance the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness. Consequently, the complex social system composed of the public and the communication through traditional media, social media and offline network to spread the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness is regarded as a multiplex network, and a transmission dynamic model of vaccination consciousness for the public with consideration of multiple channels is established based on the theory of multiplex networks in the study. The spread process of vaccination consciousness in public health emergencies is different from that of ordinary vaccination awareness. That is, the development and evolution of epidemics in public health emergencies show significant unconventional characteristics, which are mainly reflected in public health emergencies. The high-density and frequent COVID-19 vaccination publicity in a short time, which leads to the high frequency of vaccination information, makes the majority of people indifferent and ignore the necessary consciousness of vaccination, and is easy to produce mainstream fatigue psychology to COVID-19 vaccination. Secondly, the dynamic analysis of the model is carried out, and the regeneration matrix method is used to derive the threshold conditions for the continuous spread of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among the public. As long as the number of people with vaccination consciousness is guaranteed to reach a certain threshold based on the threshold conditions, each person in the investigated group will have the consciousness of COVID-19 vaccination. Then, some simulations are given on the transmission process of vaccination consciousness among the public. Finally, the parameters of the model are estimated by using the official data provided by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China on the number of COVID-19 vaccination over time to verify its effectiveness. Accurate data is the prerequisite for parameter estimation. According to the official data from March 23, 2021 to May 16, 2021, the National Health Commission pointed out that the people who received the COVID-19 vaccination during this period were all vaccinated for the first time. Therefore, the number of COVID-19 vaccination reported daily is approximated as the data of the number of people with vaccination consciousness in the parameter estimation. The data are continuous, with “one day” as the unit time. The research shows that: first of all, the excessive use of a single channel or only one slogan during the publicity of COVID-19 vaccination is easy to lead to mainstream fatigue of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among the public, resulting in the decline of the efficiency of transmission for vaccination consciousness, and even make people lose the consciousness. Therefore, the propaganda slogan should be changed and multiple channels are used to disseminate the information and knowledge of COVID-19 vaccination in a balanced manner, so as to promote of the spread of COVID-19 vaccination consciousness among various channels, and in turn maximize the efficiency of transmission. Finally, government departments should mobilize all forces to comprehensively strengthen the psychological counseling of those who have deviation of vaccination consciousness and carry out appropriate psychological communication. If necessary, appropriate supervision and control should be carried out to change their cognitive biases and resistance to vaccination, stop spreading about COVID-19 vaccination, and promote the formation of correct cognition of COVID-19 vaccination, which will effectively promote the spread of vaccination consciousness.

Key words: large-scale public health emergencies, COVID-19 vaccination consciousness, social communication, multiplex networks, complex system simulations