基于GMDH-RSM方法的非常规油气生产技术多指标组合对产能的影响效应研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1450

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 地质指标、技术指标与产能的关联分析对非常规油气生产科学决策具有重要指导意义。为了将单因素影响产能的数量关系拓展到指标组合取值与产能量化关系的研究层面，本文以致密气开发为例，从“开发全流程”中不同因素影响产能因果关系切入，就“技术指标-产能”因果链剖析可控技术因素的多指标组合情景与产能的量化关系，提出生产技术条件优化的方案。构建GMDH-RSM模型分析，首先给出产能关键影响因素选择的科学依据；其次对筛选的关键因素分类，提取可控类指标；最后分析可控类技术指标的组合取值情景与产能的量化影响形式与可视化结果。结果显示技术指标不同取值组合通过二阶方程式影响产能。通过技术指标不同取值组合的情景选择可以获得相应的技术产出效果，实现产能控制。本文结论明确了致密气开发的技术指标对产能影响的数量关系形式，为产能管理提供了决策的实证参考。

关键词: 非常规油气；产能管理；多指标组合；响应面分析

Abstract: Causal correlation analysis between geological factors, technical factors and capacity of oil and gas is of great significance for scientific decision-making in unconventional oil and gas production. However, the quantitative relationship between single factor and the capacity is mainly discussed, and the combined scenario effect of similar influencing factors is not deeply studied. Tight gas production is taken as an example. From the perspective of the causal relationship chain between production factors and production capacity, a quantitative relationship between the combination scenario of multiple factors of controllable technical factors and capacity is analyzed to achieve optimizing production technical conditions. GMDH-RSM Combined method is constructed. Firstly, under the method of Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), the selection method of key factors affecting capacity is given in this paper. Secondly, the controllable factors in actual production decisions are found by classification of key indicators. Finally, empirical analysis is made by Response Surface Methodology (RSM) on the quantitative relationship between the combination of multiple technical factors and the production capacity. The results show that: (1) different values of combinations of technical factors affect production capacity significantly through second-order equations; (2) selecting scenarios with different values of technical factors, the corresponding level of technical output, i.e. production, can be obtained, so as to achieve capacity control.The conclusion of this paper clarifies the quantitative relationship form of the impact of technical factors accompanying tight gas development on production capacity and provides an empirical reference for the decision-making of production capacity management.

Key words: unconventional oil and gas; capacity management; multi-factor combination; response surface analysis

中图分类号:

王树斌, 卢全莹, 柴建. 基于GMDH-RSM方法的非常规油气生产技术多指标组合对产能的影响效应研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(6): 275-286.

WANG Shu-bin, LU Quan-ying, CHAI Jian. Research on the Effects of Technology Multi-index Combination on Unconventional Oil and Gas Production with GMDH-RSM Method[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(6): 275-286.

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