石油价格冲击与经济波动风险最小化的货币供应机制分析

中国管理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. ›› Issue (2): 26-33.

石油价格冲击与经济波动风险最小化的货币供应机制分析

李霜¹, 简志宏², 郑俊瑶³

1. 武汉工业学院经济与管理学院, 湖北武汉 430023;
2. 华中科技大学经济学院, 湖北武汉 430074;
3. 中国银行测试中心, 上海 201201

收稿日期:2011-07-15 修回日期:2012-02-10 出版日期:2012-04-29 发布日期:2012-04-25
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171090)

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Volatility Risk Minimization Based Analysis of Money Supply Mechanism

LI Shuang¹, JIAN Zhi-hong², ZHENG Jun-yao³

1. School of Economics and Management, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023, China;
2. School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;
3. Testing Center, Bank of China, Shanghai 201201, China

Received:2011-07-15 Revised:2012-02-10 Online:2012-04-29 Published:2012-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文通过构建一个包含石油价格冲击的DSGE模型,基于经济波动风险的最小化,研究了石油价格冲击对中国货币供应机制的影响。在模型结构参数贝叶斯估计的基础上,通过货币政策前沿的比较分析,回答了中国货币供应机制是否应该对石油价格冲击做出反应以及应该如何反应的政策问题。研究结果表明,中国当前的货币供应机制并没有对石油价格冲击做出显著的反应,但为了减小经济波动的风险,中国的货币供应机制在对产出增长和通货膨胀反应的同时,对石油价格冲击做出反应具有必要性。

关键词: 石油价格冲击, 经济波动, 货币供应机制, 政策前沿

Abstract: This paper constructs a DSGE model to investigate the issue of how oil price shocks impact on China’s money supply mechanism based on economic volatility risk minimization. Firstly, we use Bayesian method to estimate parameters, and then we compare monetary policy frontiers to find out whether China’s money supply mechanism should and how to respond to oil price shocks. The results indicate that China’s money supply doesn’t respond to oil price shocks. However, policy frontiers provide strong support for the rule in which money supply mechanism responds to the oil prices as well as inflation and output growth for the sake of economic volatility minimization.

Key words: oil price shocks, economic volatility, money supply mechanism, policy frontier

中图分类号:

F822

李霜, 简志宏, 郑俊瑶. 石油价格冲击与经济波动风险最小化的货币供应机制分析 [J]. 中国管理科学, 2012, (2): 26-33.

LI Shuang, JIAN Zhi-hong, ZHENG Jun-yao. Oil Price Shocks and Economic Volatility Risk Minimization Based Analysis of Money Supply Mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2012, (2): 26-33.

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