主管：中国科学院
主办：中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
　　　中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
中国管理科学

中国管理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (9): 61-70.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1735

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑风险关联和决策者偏好的海外投资国家风险评估研究

孟华强1, 索玮岚2   

  1. 1.东北大学工商管理学院，辽宁 沈阳110167； 2.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，北京100190
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-09 修回日期:2020-10-01 出版日期:2022-09-20 发布日期:2022-09-01
  • 通讯作者: 索玮岚(1982-)，女(汉族)，河北磁县人，中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院，副研究员，博士，研究方向：风险管理、管理决策分析，Email：suoweilan@casisd.cn. E-mail:suoweilan@casisd.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(71673267，72074207)；中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院院长青年基金资助项目(Y8X1081Q01)

Research on Country Risk Assessment for Overseas Investment Considering Risk Interdependence and Decision Makers’ Preference

MENG Hua-qiang1, SUO Wei-lan2   

  1. 1. School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110167, China；2. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2020-09-09 Revised:2020-10-01 Online:2022-09-20 Published:2022-09-01
  • Contact: 索玮岚 E-mail:suoweilan@casisd.cn

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摘要： 国家风险是我国企业海外投资优先考虑的外部因素，其构成的多维度性、不同维度风险之间关联的客观存在性以及企业决策者差异化的偏好等特点，加剧了海外投资国家风险评估的难度。本文引入风险关联和决策者偏好，提出一种二元语义DEMATEL法、基尼系数客观赋权法与VIKOR法相结合的海外投资国家风险评估方法来量化风险关联，并从主客观集成视角确定风险评估指标权重，以期得到不同决策机制下的投资风险国别排序。随即，通过采集“一带一路”沿线63个国家的数据开展实证分析，验证所提出方法的有效性，并对结果进行分析与讨论。研究结果能够为海外投资区位选择提供必要的决策支持，也能够对我国企业海外投资风险防范、推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展有所裨益。

关键词: 一带一路, 国家风险, 风险关联, 决策者偏好

Abstract: Country risk is an important external factor that Chinese companies prioritize for overseas investment. The multi-dimensional composition nature of country risk, the objective existence of risk interdependencies from different dimensions, and the differentiated preferences of company decision-makers, have increased the difficulty of country risk assessment for overseas investment. In this paper, risk interdependence and decision-makers’ preference are introduced, and a country risk assessment method for overseas investment which combines two tuple DEMATEL method, Gini coefficient objective weighting method and VIKOR method are proposed to quantify risk interdependence, determine the weight of risk assessment index from the perspective of subjective and objective integration, and obtain the country ranking of investment risks under different decision-making mechanisms. Subsequently, an empirical study based on the collected data from 63 countries along the Belt and Road is conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the assessment results are further analyzed. The research results can provide necessary decision support for location selection of oversea investment, and help Chinese enterprises to prevent overseas investment risk and promote the development of the Belt and Road.

Key words: the Belt and Road, country risk, risk interdependence, decision makers’ preference

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