外商直接投资对中国经济高质量发展的影响——基于Index DEA和面板分位回归的分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2019.1040

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 改革开放40多年来，我国引进了大量外商直接投资(FDI)，不仅增加了资本供给和劳动力需要，还促进了我国经济增长与发展。十九大报告指出我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。为了探究FDI是否会对我国经济高质量发展产生影响，本文基于2003-2016年的省级面板数据，从经济基本面、社会发展以及生态环境成果三个维度出发，首先采用Index DEA模型，构建了经济高质量发展指标，进而运用面板分位数回归探究了FDI对经济高质量发展的影响。我们发现，FDI对中西部地区的经济高质量发展会带来显著的积极作用，能促进当地经济高质量发展，然而对于东部地区而言却有相反的作用。分析结果表明，在10%-30%分位点下，FDI对区域经济高质量发展影响不确定，但在40%-80%分位点下，FDI对区域经济高质量发展有显著正向影响。这将为研究中国区域经济高质量发展提供参考，并为地方政府合理引进外商直接投资、实现由经济增长阶段向经济高质量发展阶段的转型提供启示。

关键词: 经济高质量发展；外商直接投资；Index DEA；面板分位回归

Abstract: In the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has introduced a large number of foreign direct investment (FDI), which not only increased the capital supply and labor demand, but also promoted China’s economic growth and development. The report of the 19th National Congress pointed out that China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. In order to explore whether FDI will affect our country’s economy to develop high quality, based on provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016, from the economic fundamentals, the achievements of social development and ecological environment in three dimensions, the Index DEA model is adopted, the high quality and economic development Index are constructed, and then the panel quantile regression is used to explore the impact of FDI on the high-quality development of the economy. It is found that FDI can have a significant positive effect on the high-quality development of the economy in the central and western regions, and can promote the high-quality development of the local economy, while it has an opposite effect on the eastern region. The panel segmentation results show that FDI has an uncertain impact on the high-quality development of regional economy under the segmentation of 10%-30%, while FDI has a significant positive impact on the high-quality development of regional economy under the segmentation of 40%-80%.This will provide reference for studying the high-quality development of China’s regional economy, and provide enlightenment for local governments to reasonably introduce foreign direct investment and realize the transformation from the stage of economic growth to the stage of high-quality economic development.

Key words: high-quality economic development; foreign direct investment; index DEA; panel quantile regression

中图分类号:

F124

周忠宝, 邓莉, 肖和录, 吴士健, LIU Wenbin. 外商直接投资对中国经济高质量发展的影响——基于Index DEA和面板分位回归的分析[J]. 中国管理科学, 2022, 30(5): 118-130.

ZHOU Zhong-bao, DENG Li, XIAO He-lu, WU Shi-jian, LIU Wen-bin. The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s High-quality Economic Development——Index DEA and Panel Partition Regression Analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2022, 30(5): 118-130.

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