关键词: 保兑仓融资, 供应链金融, 回购担保, 破产概率

Abstract: Using core enterprise's credit for reference and confirming warehouse emerge as the times require to strengthen SMEs' credit condition make it easier for them to get financial support from banks. However, with the deterioration of market conditions, many SMEs go bankrupt and the core enterprise then undertake huge joint indemnity. In the supply chain, a bi-level Stackelberg game in which the bank acts as the leader, the manufacturer as the subleader, the retailor as the follower is formulated. Taking the retailer's bankruptcy probability into account, the manufacturer buys back a certain percentage of unsold products and retailer takes the acceptance draft as a settlement tool to finance products. By adopting backward induction method, the decision of the retailer's optimal order quantity, manufacturer's optimal buyback rate and the bank's optimal interest rate is analyzed. Through numerical examples, it is found that the increase of the buyback rate can encourage the retailer to order and improve the profit of the supply chain. However, the change of the buyback rate to the bank's profit is greatly influenced by the retailer's bankruptcy probability. Higher buyback rate can stimulate creditworthy retailer to order more, and thus increase the bank's profit. To the poor credit retailer, the increase of order quantity will make bank a greater probability to suffer from loss, with expected profit reducing at the same time. So, when adopting any form of buyback contract, special attention should be paid to the side effect of bringing manufacturer to assume partial risk of market fluctuation. When demand recession resulting in SMEs' failure to repay bank acceptance bills, core enterprise can not make a full compensation either. Before signing for confirming warehouse agreement, bank should focus on both SMEs and core enterprise's credit repayment ability, as well as strengthen fund supervision, to avoid misusing of credit. With more and more people are concerned about the supply chain finance, the risk it brings to the entire supply chain system should not be neglected.

Key words: confirming warehouse, supply chain finance, buyback guarantee, bankruptcy probability