考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2016.06.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在风险投资项目选择过程中,决策者通常是有限理性的,会尽量避免选择可能会令其感到后悔的风险投资项目,而在涉及多个行业的风险投资项目选择过程中如何考虑决策者后悔规避的心理行为因素,这方面的研究特别需要关注。本文提出了一种涉及多个行业的考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法。在该方法中,首先计算各风险投资项目在不同市场状态下的项目价值;然后,计算各组合市场状态发生的概率;进一步地,构建后悔函数刻画决策者后悔的心理感知,并通过计算不同行业的各风险投资项目的综合效用值得到风险投资项目的排序结果。最后,通过一个算例说明了本文提出方法的可行性与有效性。

关键词: 风险投资, 项目选择, 扩展净现值, 后悔规避

Abstract: In recent years, venture capital industry develops rapidly in China and the number of venture capital deals increased substantially. However, fewer venture capital projects may bring significant returns. The fault in the selection of venture capital project is the main reason which causes the failure of venture capital. Thus, the selection of venture capital before investment is especially important. The value of venture capital project is the critical factor which the decision maker concerns in the process of the venture capital project selection. Usually, the decision maker may take into account a number of venture capital projects among multiple industries the process of the venture capital project selection and choose the most satisfactory one or more venture capital projects to invest considering the prospect of each market and the value of each venture capital project. In the process of the venture capital project selection, the decision maker is usually bounded rational. The decision maker may compare the venture capital project under consideration with other venture capital projects and may feel regret when choosing other venture capital projects may bring better result. In reality, the decision maker will forecast the values of venture capital projects among multiple industries in different market states before investing. The deviation between venture capital projects may make decision maker generate feelings of anticipated regret. The feelings of anticipated regret will affect the selection of venture capital project, which shows that the decision maker tends to avoid choosing the regrettable venture capital project. How to consider decision maker's psychological behavioral factors in the process of the venture capital project selection among multiple industries needs to be especially concerned. In this paper, a method for selecting venture capital project among multiple industries considering the decision maker's regret aversion is proposed. In the method, firstly, the value of each venture capital project in different market states is calculated. Then, the probability of combined market state is calculated. Furthermore, the regret function is constructed to describe the decision maker's psychological perception of regret and the overall utility value of each venture capital project is calculated so as to determine a ranking of venture capital projects in different industries. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: venture capital, project selection, extended net present valuation, regret aversion

中图分类号:

C934

于超, 樊治平. 考虑决策者后悔规避的风险投资项目选择方法[J]. 中国管理科学, 2016, 24(6): 29-37.

YU Chao, FAN Zhi-ping. Method for Venture Capital Project Selection Considering Decision Maker's Regret Aversion[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2016, 24(6): 29-37.

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