基于多智能体的城市群政策协调建模与仿真

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.01.012

中国管理科学 ›› 2015, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1): 89-98.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2015.01.012

基于多智能体的城市群政策协调建模与仿真

罗杭^1,2, 张毅³, 孟庆国¹

1. 清华大学公共管理学院, 北京 100084;
2. 巴黎大学(UPMC)-法国国家科学研究院计算机科学实验室, 巴黎 75252;
3. 华中科技大学公共管理学院, 湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2012-11-26 修回日期:2013-09-27 出版日期:2015-01-20 发布日期:2015-01-21
作者简介:罗杭(1989-),男(土家族),湖北恩施人,清华大学公共管理学院管理学博士研究生,巴黎大学(UPMC)-法国国家科学院计算机科学实验室博士研究生,研究方向:计算社会选择、计算组织科学、社会科学与计算机科学等交叉研究.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473143);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2009CDB384)

Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Cities' Policy Coordination Based on Mas

LUO Hang^1,2, ZHANG Yi³, MENG Qing-guo¹

1. School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2. Laboratoire d'informatique de Paris 6, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, PARIS VI - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris 75252, France;
3. College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2012-11-26 Revised:2013-09-27 Online:2015-01-20 Published:2015-01-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以城市群多政府互动与政策偏好演化为例,通过概念模型、数学模型和计算机模型的完整建模过程构建一个多智能体仿真模型,基于动力系统理论构建微观决策主体的偏好演化机制,基于复杂网络模型模拟宏观社会网络的拓扑演化规则,并对仿真模型和模拟结果进行效度和信度的检验。模拟实验探讨了全局交互周期比例、局部交互连接概率、行政/激励调控措施及其交叉作用对城市群政策协调演化的动态影响,并结合大样本模拟数据的统计分析,为促进城市群协调合作和区域一体化进程提供决策依据和政策参考,是多智能体建模与仿真(ABMS)在公共管理和政策领域的前沿拓展,提供了新的研究视角和方法论体系,也是政府组织模拟实验研究(行政学科计算化与实验化)的一次新尝试。

关键词: 城市群政策协调, 群体行为互动, 政策偏好演化, 网络模型, 多智能体

Abstract: To analyze the Multi-Cities' Government Interaction and Policy Preference Evolution, a multi-agent simulation system is built through conceptual model, mathematic model and computer model. The preference evolutionary mechanism of micro decision-making entities is constructed based on dynamic system, and the topology evolving rule of macro social networks is built based on complex networks, and the reliability and validity test for simulation model and results is given. The simulation experiments investigate the effect of global interaction proportion, local interlinking probability, administration/stimulation measures and their interaction on the evolving process of the multi-cities' policy coordination. The statistics analysis of large sample of simulation data is integrated, to provide policy advices to advance the collaboration and integration of urban agglomeration. This research is a frontier expansion of the multi-agent system in the field of public management and policy, endowing the discipline with new research perspective and methodological system, and also an innovative try of government organizations simulation experiment research.

Key words: multi-cities policy coordination, collective behaviors interaction, policy preferences evolution, networks model, multi-agent system

中图分类号:

C93
TP39

罗杭, 张毅, 孟庆国. 基于多智能体的城市群政策协调建模与仿真[J]. 中国管理科学, 2015, 23(1): 89-98.

LUO Hang, ZHANG Yi, MENG Qing-guo. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Cities' Policy Coordination Based on Mas[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(1): 89-98.

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基于多智能体的城市群政策协调建模与仿真

Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Cities' Policy Coordination Based on Mas

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