排污权交易价格不确定下的企业生产决策优化与排污策略研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0343

Abstract

Abstract:

The key challenge for emission enterprises is how to weigh the rationality of production decision and the legality of emission behavior under the price uncertainty of emission permits. In view of the measurability and availability of historical prices of emissions trading under different trading mechanisms in reality， a data-driven approach based on kernel density estimation is proposed to construct an uncertainty set for a given confidence level to characterize the uncertainty of emissions trading prices. And a robust optimization model based on the minimum-maximum regret value criterion is used to study the production decision optimization and emission behavior of emission enterprises under two commonly used mechanisms： the government reserve offer/buyback mechanism and the enterprise transfer transaction mechanism. The results show that the optimal production decisions of emission rights sellers and conservative producers are not directly related to the trading price of emission rights under the government reserve transfer/buy-back mechanism， while the production decisions of emission rights buyers are directly related to the trading price and the profit maximization can be achieved by choosing illegal over-emissions when the robust trading price is below a certain level. Under the enterprise transfer transaction mechanism， the production decisions of enterprises are closely related to the trading price of emission rights， and when the robust trading price of emission rights is higher than a certain value， the purchasing enterprises can obtain the maximum profit by following the legal emission. The empirical analysis not only reveals the characteristics and laws of the market behavior of emissions trading under the two trading mechanisms， but also indicates what emissions trading strategies enterprises should adopt to achieve their optimal production decisions under different mechanisms， and provides a scientific basis for the government to set the amount of fines for illegal over-emissions， so that the research results are more practical guidance for the implementation of the “efficient market and effective government” system of emissions trading.

Key words: pollution rights trading, production decision optimization, emission behavior, uncertainty set, robust optimization

CLC Number:

F205

Jinfeng Sun,Hongxi Sheng,Xiangpei Hu. Production Decision-making Optimization and Emission Behavioral Analysis under Emission Permits Price Uncertainty[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(11): 65-80.

Figures/Tables 13

历史数据	估计模型	H	p-value	统计量 $D n$	临界值 $D n a$	K-S检验结果
政府储备出让交易数据	KDE-ROT $h = 1200.977$	$h = 0$	0.3337	0.0632	0.1094	接受
	KDE-CV $h = 3154.4$	$h = 1$	0.0028	0.1220	0.1094	拒绝
	Gamma分布( $α = 4.8706, β = 1644.5$ )	$h = 0$	0.1374	0.0776	0.1094	接受
排污权协议转让数据	KDE-ROT $h = 562.449$	$h = 0$	0.1368	0.1788	0.2521	接受
	KDE-CV $h = 966$	$h = 0$	0.0700	0.2002	0.2521	接受
	Gamma分布( $α = 26.132, β = 232.694$ )	$h = 0$	0.0443	0.2136	0.2521	拒绝

污染物	二氧化硫
初始排污权配额/ $l i a$ （吨/年）	0.002~591.697
排污权使用费/ $p e$ （元/吨·年）	1000

$a$	$b$	$γ i$	$k i$	$w i$	$s$	$c i$	$m$	$ε i$
6000	0.5	800	0.5	30	0.8	12	3000	12

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	实际交易笔数	剔除异常值后样本数据	最小值	最大值	中位数	平均值	标准差	上四分位数	下四分位数
政府储备出让数据	265	218	1000	16000	8000	8009.63	3328.42	5625	10000
排污权协议转让数据	43	40	3000	8045	6000	6080.78	1110.47	5107.25	7000

排污权交易价格	2019年	2020年	2021年
政府储备量出让价格（元/吨）	1150~125000	2133~22900	4125~10700
政府回购价格（元/吨）	1000（富余排污权来源于排污权有偿使用）/与政府储备出让交易价格一致（富余排污权来源于政府储备排污权出让交易）
企业间协议转让价格（元/吨）	/	1000~817500	5000~7000

置信水平	政府储备出让交易	企业转让交易机制	置信水平	政府储备出让交易	企业转让交易
0.00	7834.00	6202.60	0.50	7854.50	6142.25
0.05	7834.00	6202.00	0.55	7870.00	6130.60
0.10	7833.50	6200.10	0.60	7895.50	6118.05
0.15	7833.00	6196.95	0.65	7935.00	6104.15
0.20	7833.00	6192.55	0.70	7999.00	6088.10
0.25	7832.50	6186.85	0.75	8105.50	6068.20
0.30	7833.00	6180.00	0.80	8269.00	6040.05
0.35	7835.00	6172.00	0.85	8446.50	5989.55
0.40	7838.00	6162.95	0.90	8771.24	5844.45
0.45	7844.00	6153.05	0.95	10311.70	5597.85

Production Decision-making Optimization and Emission Behavioral Analysis under Emission Permits Price Uncertainty

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