主管:中国科学院
主办:中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会
   中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院

Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 33-48.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1100

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Multivariate GARCH-Ito^Model with Applications in High-dimension Volatility Matrix Prediction

Xinyu Song1, Yuanyuan Deng1, Yong Zhou2, Huiling Yuan3()   

  1. 1.School of Statistics and Data Science,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China
    2.School of Statistics,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China
    3.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Donghua University,Shanghai 201620,China
  • Received:2023-06-29 Revised:2024-09-14 Online:2026-07-25 Published:2026-06-18
  • Contact: Huiling Yuan E-mail:yuanhuiling2016@gmail.com

Abstract:

A novel multivariate GARCH-Ito^ model is introduced that integrates the structural framework of multivariate GARCH within a continuous-time diffusion process, providing a unified approach to modeling the dynamic evolution of volatility matrices by jointly utilizing high-frequency and low-frequency data. A quasi-maximum likelihood estimation method for parameter inference is developed and the corresponding asymptotic theory is established. To address the challenges associated with high-dimensional asset spaces, the proposed model is coupled with a factor structure, enabling scalable and efficient prediction of large integrated volatility matrices. Theoretical guarantees for the proposed predictor are provided under high-dimensional settings. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of both the estimation and prediction procedures across both low-dimensional and high-dimensional contexts. In an empirical application, 270 constituent stocks of the CSI 300 index are analyzed using minute-level high-frequency data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2020. The results demonstrate that the multivariate GARCH-Ito^ model consistently outperforms several benchmark methods in terms of integrated volatility matrix forecasting and portfolio allocation, offering a flexible and unified framework that incorporates both high- and low-frequency data features for advanced volatility modeling and prediction.

Key words: high-frequency data, dynamic structure, quisi-maximum likelihood method, integrated volatility matrix, factor model

CLC Number: