Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2026, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 33-48.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1100
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Xinyu Song1, Yuanyuan Deng1, Yong Zhou2, Huiling Yuan3(
)
Received:2023-06-29
Revised:2024-09-14
Online:2026-07-25
Published:2026-06-18
Contact:
Huiling Yuan
E-mail:yuanhuiling2016@gmail.com
CLC Number:
Xinyu Song,Yuanyuan Deng,Yong Zhou, et al. Multivariate GARCH-It
"
| 模型参数估计 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | 0.237 | 0.164 | 0.132 | 0.486 | 0.339 | 0.803 |
| 480 | 0.185 | 0.135 | 0.115 | 0.353 | 0.227 | 0.517 |
| 1440 | 0.127 | 0.107 | 0.089 | 0.253 | 0.166 | 0.300 |
| 14400 | 0.052 | 0.058 | 0.045 | 0.139 | 0.092 | 0.123 |
| 240 | 3.942 | 9.219 | 8.082 | 2.198 | 5.257 | 12.368 |
| 480 | 3.328 | 7.392 | 6.537 | 1.623 | 3.493 | 8.350 |
| 1440 | 2.579 | 5.472 | 4.703 | 0.996 | 2.089 | 5.161 |
| 14400 | 1.494 | 3.164 | 2.582 | 0.514 | 0.893 | 2.242 |
| 240 | 2.892 | 4.948 | 3.846 | 1.954 | 1.849 | 4.437 |
| 480 | 2.230 | 4.098 | 3.259 | 1.549 | 1.471 | 2.945 |
| 1440 | 1.493 | 3.050 | 2.287 | 1.165 | 1.139 | 2.106 |
| 14400 | 0.869 | 1.770 | 1.352 | 0.686 | 0.602 | 1.001 |
| 240 | 1.043 | 2.197 | 2.577 | |||
| 480 | 0.823 | 1.820 | 2.258 | |||
| 1440 | 0.626 | 1.441 | 1.730 | |||
| 14400 | 0.332 | 0.780 | 0.921 | |||
"
| 范数 | 多元GARCH-It | PRVM方法 | BEKK模型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 谱范数 | 240 | 2.486 | 6.365 | 10.866 |
| 480 | 1.824 | 5.432 | 10.414 | |
| 1440 | 1.078 | 4.859 | 9.645 | |
| 14400 | 0.434 | 3.615 | 10.047 | |
Frobenius 范数 | 240 | 2.766 | 7.065 | 11.602 |
| 480 | 2.037 | 6.004 | 11.109 | |
| 1440 | 1.186 | 5.329 | 10.355 | |
| 14400 | 0.466 | 3.931 | 10.745 | |
| 最大范数 | 240 | 2.240 | 5.033 | 8.520 |
| 480 | 1.651 | 4.335 | 7.984 | |
| 1440 | 0.941 | 3.872 | 7.627 | |
| 14400 | 0.358 | 2.838 | 7.850 | |
相对Frobenius 范数 | 240 | 2.955 | 15.587 | 47.287 |
| 480 | 1.500 | 11.985 | 48.994 | |
| 1440 | 1.480 | 8.904 | 42.427 | |
| 14400 | 0.054 | 4.826 | 71.902 |
"
| 模型参数估计 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240 | 0.243 | 0.228 | 0.222 | 0.822 | 0.57 | 0.629 |
| 480 | 0.215 | 0.193 | 0.167 | 0.664 | 0.433 | 0.543 |
| 1440 | 0.203 | 0.140 | 0.127 | 0.494 | 0.345 | 0.447 |
| 8640 | 0.198 | 0.087 | 0.073 | 0.293 | 0.219 | 0.324 |
| 240 | 7.157 | 11.873 | 12.552 | 4.339 | 5.983 | 16.327 |
| 480 | 5.847 | 9.094 | 9.321 | 2.982 | 4.941 | 13.521 |
| 1440 | 4.278 | 6.803 | 7.095 | 2.095 | 3.675 | 9.150 |
| 8640 | 2.526 | 4.174 | 4.039 | 1.137 | 2.204 | 4.935 |
| 240 | 3.061 | 5.537 | 4.067 | 2.583 | 2.046 | 4.086 |
| 480 | 2.537 | 4.221 | 3.331 | 2.060 | 1.870 | 3.507 |
| 1440 | 1.905 | 3.314 | 2.757 | 1.637 | 1.386 | 2.338 |
| 8640 | 1.110 | 2.161 | 1.710 | 0.923 | 0.951 | 1.415 |
| 240 | 1.124 | 2.348 | 2.948 | |||
| 480 | 0.973 | 1.801 | 2.620 | |||
| 1440 | 0.714 | 1.534 | 1.993 | |||
| 8640 | 0.450 | 0.979 | 1.275 | |||
"
| 范数 | 多元GARCH-It | 因子GARCH-It | POET方法 | PRVM模型 | SV-It | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 谱范数 | 240 | 2.040 | 8.111 | 7.300 | 7.300 | 3.277 |
| 480 | 1.628 | 7.683 | 6.634 | 6.634 | 2.434 | |
| 1440 | 0.991 | 6.154 | 5.262 | 5.258 | 1.986 | |
| 8640 | 0.600 | 6.021 | 4.389 | 4.381 | 1.548 | |
| Frobenius范数 | 240 | 2.333 | 9.598 | 8.786 | 8.937 | 3.504 |
| 480 | 1.929 | 8.850 | 7.842 | 7.965 | 2.874 | |
| 1440 | 1.340 | 7.063 | 6.259 | 6.334 | 2.478 | |
| 8640 | 1.023 | 6.604 | 5.079 | 5.073 | 2.172 | |
| 最大范数 | 240 | 0.096 | 0.366 | 0.331 | 0.338 | 0.148 |
| 480 | 0.085 | 0.332 | 0.292 | 0.302 | 0.135 | |
| 1440 | 0.066 | 0.261 | 0.232 | 0.239 | 0.115 | |
| 8640 | 0.054 | 0.234 | 0.182 | 0.190 | 0.101 | |
| 相对Frobenius范数 | 240 | 0.534 | 1.571 | 1.345 | 5.297 | 0.685 |
| 480 | 0.642 | 1.213 | 1.103 | 3.821 | 0.756 | |
| 1440 | 0.808 | 1.048 | 1.015 | 2.251 | 0.811 | |
| 8640 | 0.941 | 1.014 | 1.006 | 0.935 | 0.968 |
"
| 参数 | 预测区间 | 多元GARCH-It | 因子 GARCH-It | POET | PRVM | SV-It | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020年1月 | 0.317 | 0.322 | 0.319 | 0.317 | 0.327 | 0.379 | 0.372 | 0.372 | 0.325 | |
| 2020年2月 | 0.435 | 0.45 | 0.451 | 0.451 | 0.461 | 0.399 | 0.408 | 0.411 | 0.431 | |
| 2020年3月 | 0.369 | 0.404 | 0.400 | 0.401 | 0.409 | 0.398 | 0.443 | 0.443 | 0.410 | |
| 2020年4月 | 0.242 | 0.248 | 0.247 | 0.246 | 0.25 | 0.286 | 0.277 | 0.277 | 0.251 | |
| 2020年5月 | 0.219 | 0.234 | 0.220 | 0.221 | 0.228 | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.295 | 0.234 | |
| 2020年6月 | 0.255 | 0.253 | 0.260 | 0.261 | 0.265 | 0.319 | 0.291 | 0.291 | 0.270 | |
| 2020年7月 | 0.544 | 0.557 | 0.569 | 0.569 | 0.572 | 0.589 | 0.591 | 0.591 | 0.570 | |
| 2020年8月 | 0.448 | 0.453 | 0.459 | 0.458 | 0.46 | 0.374 | 0.382 | 0.383 | 0.465 | |
| 2020年9月 | 0.309 | 0.313 | 0.321 | 0.318 | 0.322 | 0.369 | 0.367 | 0.366 | 0.330 | |
| 2020年10月 | 0.295 | 0.300 | 0.301 | 0.301 | 0.302 | 0.356 | 0.353 | 0.354 | 0.312 | |
| 2020年11月 | 0.272 | 0.278 | 0.278 | 0.279 | 0.277 | 0.268 | 0.257 | 0.257 | 0.270 | |
| 2020年12月 | 0.291 | 0.295 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.296 | 0.319 | 0.311 | 0.312 | 0.305 | |
| 2020年1月 | 2683637 | 2683650 | 2683670 | 2683662 | 2683663 | 14278552 | 13865714 | 4536163 | 3196557 | |
| 2020年2月 | 1215402 | 1215431 | 1215449 | 1215465 | 1215465 | 8825641 | 7775543 | 1995877 | 1723084 | |
| 2020年3月 | 1350027 | 1350036 | 1350031 | 1350036 | 1350037 | 6090200 | 5967906 | 2067773 | 1873059 | |
| 2020年4月 | 1531613 | 1531630 | 1531631 | 1531646 | 1531659 | 17445132 | 17749757 | 2439849 | 2194860 | |
| 2020年5月 | 1444130 | 1444160 | 1444179 | 1444199 | 1444193 | 7510691 | 7573684 | 2175766 | 1906547 | |
| 2020年6月 | 2240633 | 2240623 | 2240613 | 2240609 | 2240618 | 10843838 | 11009881 | 3713105 | 2629829 | |
| 2020年7月 | 1784926 | 1784974 | 1784984 | 1785051 | 1785057 | 6197296 | 6182715 | 3279139 | 2328066 | |
| 2020年8月 | 2146406 | 2146426 | 2146437 | 2146448 | 2146456 | 11184674 | 11467610 | 3715848 | 2695563 | |
| 2020年9月 | 1256194 | 1256199 | 1256195 | 1256211 | 1256212 | 30121488 | 29998299 | 1988675 | 1819442 | |
| 2020年10月 | 1728144 | 1728168 | 1728177 | 1728218 | 1728212 | 16069270 | 16447190 | 2654057 | 2269224 | |
| 2020年11月 | 2452643 | 2452663 | 2452670 | 2452678 | 2452692 | 27518090 | 128795320 | 4056123 | 2904073 | |
| 2020年12月 | 1473267 | 1473286 | 1473290 | 1473300 | 1473305 | 15853939 | 16214797 | 2187645 | 1956125 | |
"
| 预测误差方差 | 预测区间 | 多元GARCH-It | 因子GARCH-It | POET | PRVM | SV-It | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
预测误差 方差 | 2020年1月 | 0.358 | 0.344 | 0.318 | 0.326 | 0.273 | 0.344 | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0.323 |
| 2020年2月 | 0.469 | 0.351 | 0.321 | 0.328 | 0.278 | 0.576 | 0.657 | 0.657 | 0.326 | |
| 2020年3月 | 0.544 | 0.353 | 0.323 | 0.323 | 0.279 | 0.576 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.327 | |
| 2020年4月 | 0.397 | 0.347 | 0.321 | 0.317 | 0.286 | 0.367 | 0.344 | 0.344 | 0.325 | |
| 2020年5月 | 0.378 | 0.347 | 0.319 | 0.315 | 0.29 | 0.328 | 0.292 | 0.292 | 0.323 | |
| 2020年6月 | 0.363 | 0.348 | 0.316 | 0.313 | 0.284 | 0.333 | 0.285 | 0.285 | 0.317 | |
| 2020年7月 | 0.558 | 0.368 | 0.317 | 0.313 | 0.29 | 0.738 | 0.814 | 0.814 | 0.319 | |
| 2020年8月 | 0.43 | 0.356 | 0.322 | 0.318 | 0.296 | 0.48 | 0.504 | 0.504 | 0.328 | |
| 2020年9月 | 0.405 | 0.357 | 0.321 | 0.317 | 0.303 | 0.374 | 0.364 | 0.364 | 0.327 | |
| 2020年10月 | 0.379 | 0.357 | 0.32 | 0.316 | 0.306 | 0.356 | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0.327 | |
| 2020年11月 | 0.38 | 0.356 | 0.32 | 0.315 | 0.31 | 0.438 | 0.416 | 0.416 | 0.324 | |
| 2020年12月 | 0.379 | 0.356 | 0.32 | 0.314 | 0.318 | 0.387 | 0.377 | 0.377 | 0.330 | |
"
| 预测区间 | 多元GARCH-It | 因子GARCH- It | POET | PRVM | SV-It | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020年1月 | 0.107 | 0.093 | 0.08 | 0.084 | 0.088 | 0.861 | 0.862 | 0.61 | 0.326 |
| 2020年2月 | 0.14 | 0.145 | 0.129 | 0.142 | 0.156 | 0.801 | 0.782 | 0.944 | 0.404 |
| 2020年3月 | 0.169 | 0.177 | 0.179 | 0.203 | 0.221 | 1.337 | 1.343 | 0.245 | 0.381 |
| 2020年4月 | 0.125 | 0.109 | 0.087 | 0.095 | 0.096 | 1.072 | 1.074 | 0.259 | 0.379 |
| 2020年5月 | 0.122 | 0.114 | 0.079 | 0.081 | 0.085 | 0.554 | 0.552 | 0.156 | 0.328 |
| 2020年6月 | 0.123 | 0.101 | 0.077 | 0.085 | 0.081 | 0.985 | 0.981 | 0.23 | 0.310 |
| 2020年7月 | 0.167 | 0.19 | 0.177 | 0.223 | 0.207 | 1.59 | 1.589 | 0.393 | 0.428 |
| 2020年8月 | 0.135 | 0.151 | 0.135 | 0.153 | 0.148 | 1.271 | 1.273 | 0.337 | 0.471 |
| 2020年9月 | 0.133 | 0.117 | 0.111 | 0.129 | 0.118 | 1.076 | 1.077 | 0.284 | 0.490 |
| 2020年10月 | 0.12 | 0.096 | 0.093 | 0.108 | 0.095 | 0.84 | 0.838 | 0.68 | 0.408 |
| 2020年11月 | 0.124 | 0.109 | 0.095 | 0.096 | 0.102 | 0.867 | 0.867 | 0.192 | 0.346 |
| 2020年12月 | 0.128 | 0.093 | 0.088 | 0.092 | 0.093 | 0.991 | 0.995 | 0.316 | 0.362 |
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