效益分享型合同节水管理项目的投资风险分析

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2020.1799

Abstract

Abstract:

Water Saving Management Contract （WSMC） is an innovative water-saving investment model， and Water Service Company （WSCO） as the major player bears a relatively high investment risk. In this regard， the investment risk of benefit-sharing WSMC project is analyzed from WSCO's perspective. Firstly， the net present value （NPV） is used to assess the economic value of the project. The geometric Brownian motion is used to deal with the uncertainty of water-saving benefits and investment over the lifetime， considering the fluctuation of the maintenance cost， water-saving， and water price. On this basis， the water-saving investment and benefits of water users and WSCO are simulated separately by combining contract parameters including contract period and benefit allocation proportion， and the probability that the NPV of WSCO is less than zero is set as an evaluation index to establish the investment risk assessment model. Subsequently， contract period decision models are constructed through benefit-risk equilibrium， with the objectives of maximizing water-saving benefits for water users and minimizing project investment risk， respectively， and the optimal contract periods under these two scenarios are determined. Finally， the applicability of the risk assessment model is verified with an actual pilot project， and the results shows that the project investment risk is 53.63%； Compared with the 6-year contract period without considering the benefit-risk equilibrium， the optimal contract periods for the two scenarios are 7 and 10 years after optimization， and the investment risk is reduced by 10.65% and 24.73%， correspondingly； Further， the results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the expected annual water savings have a significant impact on the investment risk. Some information can be provided for WSCO to make investment decisions and design the contract period of WSMC project.

Key words: water saving management contract, risk assessment, contract period

CLC Number:

C930

Xiao-sheng WANG,Xiao-jie AN,Hai-ying GUO. Analysis of Investment Risk of Benefit-sharing Water Saving Management Contract Project[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2023, 31(9): 196-204.

Figures/Tables 14

参数	符号	数据
运营维护成本	年增长系数 $δ$	1.005
	初值 $H 0$	0.073
	波动率 $σ H$	0.05
水价	初值 $P 0$	3.765元/m³
	漂移率 $μ P$	0.0523
	波动率 $σ P$	0.0856
节水量	初值 $μ P$	0.1763
节水量	波动率 $σ K$	0.01
期望收益率	北京国泰WSCO收益率 $r W$	22%
期望收益率	河北工程大学收益率 $r U$	10%

合同期 $t$	河北工程大学 $α (t)$	北京国泰WSCO $1 - α (t)$
1	0	100
2	0	100
3	0	100
4	20	80
5	30	70
6	50	50

实际	$N P V ˜ W 实际 5$	-29.61
模拟	$E [N P V W 5]$	-30.57

序号	$E U$ （万元）	$E W$ （万元）	用水户利益最大化	WSMC项目投资风险最小化
1	2800	75	10	13
2	2950	55	9	11
3	2850	50	9	13
4	3000	40	8	10
5	2900	25	8	12
6	3050	25	8	9
7	3100	10	7	8
8	2950	0	7	11
9	3000	-25	6	10
10	3050	-50	6	9

References 30

1	郑通汉. 中国合同节水管理［M］. 北京：中国水利水电出版社， 2016.
	Zheng Tonghan. Water saving management contract in China［M］. Beijing： China Water and Power Press， 2016.
2	中华人民共和国水利部. 关于推行合同节水管理促进节水服务产业发展的意见［EB/OL］. （2016-8-4）［2020-9-17］.
	zw/tzgg/tzgs/ 201702 /t 20170213_858859.html.
	Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China. Suggestions on carrying out water saving management contract to promote the development of water service industry［EB/OL］. （2016-8-4）［2020-9-17］.
	zw/tzgg/tzgs/ 201702 /t 20170213_858859.html.
3	郑晓，黄涛珍. 合同水资源管理模式设计及其组织体系构建［J］. 河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）， 2015， 17（2）： 69-71.
	Zheng Xiao， Huang Taozhen. On management model design of contract of water resources and construction of organizational system［J］. Journal of Hohai University（Philosophy and Social Sciences）， 2015， 17（2）： 69-71.
4	郭路祥. 我国合同节水管理现状与前景分析［J］. 中国水利， 2016（15）： 18-21.
	Guo Luxiang. Current situation and prospect analysis of contracted water-saving management in China［J］. China Water Resources， 2016（15）： 18-21.
5	Guo Hui， Chen Xiangdong， Liu Jiahong， et al. Joint analysis of water rights trading and water-saving management contracts in China［J］. International Journal of Water Resources Development， 2020， 36（4）： 716-737.
6	李如月，冷建飞. 合同节水管理项目的风险评价研究［J］. 节水灌溉， 2016（11）： 88-90+95.
	Li Ruyue， Leng Jianfei. Risk of contract water-saving management projects［J］. Water Saving Irrigation， 2016（11）： 88-90+95.
7	汪伦焰，武杨凯，李慧敏，等. 基于云模型的合同节水管理风险评价［J］. 节水灌溉， 2019（5）： 104-108.
	Wang Lunyan， Wu Yangkai， Li Huimin， et al. Contract water-saving management risk assessment based on cloud model［J］. Water Saving Irrigation， 2019（5）： 104-108.
8	黎厚彬. 港口投资项目风险评估方法问题研究——以A港口公司为例［D］.广州：暨南大学硕士学位论文， 2018.
	Li Houbin. Research on the risk assessment method of port investment project——as reflected in A port company［D］. Guangzhou： Jinan University， 2018.
9	张红斌. 蒙特卡洛法在城市污水PPP项目投资风险分析的应用［D］. 兰州：兰州大学硕士学位论文， 2018.
	Zhang Hongbin. Application of Monte Carlo method in investment risk analysis of urban sewage PPP project［D］. Lanzhou： Lanzhou University， 2018.
10	Xu Lei， Tang Shiyun， Deng Yanfei， et al. Sustainable operation-oriented investment risk evaluation and optimization for renewable energy project： a case study of wind power in China［J］. Annals of Operations Research， 2020， 290（1）： 223-241.
11	李玲闻樱. 海上光伏发电项目投资风险分析及评估模型构建［D］. 北京：华北电力大学硕士学位论文， 2019.
	Li Lengwenying. Investment risk analysis and assessment model construction of offshore Pvpower generation projects［D］. Beijing： North China Electric Power University， 2019.
12	Liu Xinxin， Wang Xiaosheng， Guo Haiying， et al. Benefit allocation in shared water-saving management contract projects based on modified expected Shapley value［J］. Water Resources Management， 2021， 35（1）： 39-62.
13	尹庆民，陈普，许长新. 公平熵下合同节水管理效益分配研究［J］. 节水灌溉， 2017（8）： 101-105.
	Yin Qingmin， Chen Pu， Xu Changxin. Profit distribution of water-saving management contract under equitable entropy model［J］. Water Saving Irrigation， 2017 （8）： 101-105.
14	王小胜，胡豪，刘欣欣，等. 基于讨价还价模型的分享型合同节水管理利益分配［J］. 系统工程理论与实践， 2020， 40（9）： 2418-2426.
	Wang Xiaosheng， Hu Hao， Liu Xinxin， et al. Profit allocation of benefit-sharing water saving management contract based on bargaining model［J］. Systems Engineering-Theory and Practice， 2020， 40（9）： 2418-2426.
15	Liu Huimin， Zhang Xinyue， Hu Mengyue. Game-theory-based analysis of energy performance contracting for building retrofits［J］. Journal of Cleaner Production， 2019， 231： 1089-1099.
16	Deng Qianli， Zhang Limao， Cui Qingbin， et al. A simulation-based decision model for designing contract period in building energy performance contracting［J］. Building and Environment， 2014， 71： 71-80.
17	Lu Yujie， Zhang Nan， Chen Jiayu. A behavior-based decision-making model for energy performance contracting in building retrofit［J］. Energy and Buildings， 2017， 156： 315-326.
18	阮红权. 用能单位利益最大化视角的EPC合同期决策模型［J］. 中外能源， 2020， 25（3）： 6-12.
	Ruan Hongquan. Contract period decision model of energy performance contracting from perspective of maximizing the profits of energy-consuming enterprises［J］. Sino-Global Energy， 2020， 25（3）： 6-12.
19	高欣，阮红权，薛文娟，等. 节能服务公司利益最大化视角的EPC合同参数决策模型［J］. 同济大学学报（自然科学版）， 2018， 46（11）： 1601-1608.
	Gao Xin， Ruan Hongquan， Xue Wenjuan， et al. Contract parameter decision model of energy performance contracting from perspective of interest maximization of ESCo［J］. Journal of Tongji University（Natural Science）， 2018， 46（11）： 1601-1608.
20	宋金波，宋丹荣，谭崇梅. 垃圾焚烧发电BOT项目特许期决策模型［J］. 中国管理科学， 2013， 21（5）： 86-93.
	Song Jinbo， Song Danrong， Tan Chongmei. A decision-making model of concession period for refuse-incineration power generation BOT projects［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2013， 21（5）： 86-93.
21	郝德强. 基于净现值修正模型的PPP项目物有所值评价［J］. 会计之友， 2018（15）： 90-93.
	Hao Deqiang. Value-for-money evaluation of PPP projects based on NPV modified model［J］. Friends of Accounting， 2018（15）： 90-93.
22	王立夏. 基于产品生命周期的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型［J］. 中国管理科学， 2019， 27（6）： 158-166.
	Wang Lixia. Project decision model of multi-stage residual income based on product life cycle［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2019， 27（6）： 158-166.
23	安笑洁. 合同节水管理中水资源优化配置与投资风险分析［D］. 邯郸：河北工程大学硕士学位论文， 2020.
	An Xiaojie. Optimal allocation of water resources and investment risk analysis in water saving management contract［D］. Handan： Hebei University of Engineering， 2020.
24	李力，朱磊，范英. 不确定条件下可再能源项目的竞争性投资决策［J］. 中国管理科学， 2017， 25（7）： 11-17.
	Li Li， Zhu Lei， Fan Ying. Competitive investment strategy for renewable power generation under uncertainty［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2017， 25（7）： 11-17.
25	Dufresne D. The integral of geometric Brownian motion［J］. Advances in Applied Probability， 2001， 33（1）： 223-241.
26	程承，王震，刘慧慧，等. 执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2019， 27（3）： 157-167.
	Cheng Cheng， Wang Zhen， Liu Huihui， et al. Study on the optimization of investment incentive policies for renewable energy projects-from a perspective of execution time［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2019， 27（3）： 157-167.
27	王慧敏，王慧，仇蕾，等. 水期权及其定价模型-以南水北调东线为例［J］. 系统工程， 2008， 26（7）： 45-51.
	Wang Huimin， Wang Hui， Qiu Lei， et al. Water option and its pricing model： a case study of eastern route of south-to-north water transfers［J］. Systems Engineering， 2008， 26（7）： 45-51.
28	Deng Yinghan， Cardin M A， Babovic V， et al. Valuing flexibilities in the design of urban water management systems［J］. Water Research， 2013，47（20）： 7162-7174.
29	Heo Y， Choudhary R， Augenbroe G A. Calibration of building energy models for retrofit analysis under uncertainty［J］. Energy and Buildings， 2012， 47： 550-560.
30	Tan B. Design of balanced energy savings performance contracts［J］. International Journal of Production Research， 2020， 58（5）： 1401-1424.

年份	节水收益
2015年	424
2016年	424
2017年	424
2018年	339.20
2019年	296.80

[1]	Yunfeng Chen, Xue Yu, Jicheng Liu, Xuying Ma, Xirui Zhu. Research on Electric Coal Inventory Risk Assessment Based on TSO-LS-SVM Model [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(2): 164-175.
[2]	Zhaoge Liu, Xiangyang Li, Xiaohan Zhu. Risk Assessment Model Construction of Urban Rainstorm Cascading Events Based on Risk Feature Tracing [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(1): 268-281.
[3]	Chao Jiang, Tianyuan Zhang, Xiaohua Xia. Multi Cycle Investment and Pricing Joint Decision-making of Real Estate Enterprises in A Stochastic Environment [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(4): 82-94.
[4]	Hao Ding, Yu Su, Dequn Zhou, Siqi Zhao, Yining Zhang. 'Identification-Assessment-Alert' Integration Model of Investment Risks in Renewable Energy Projects: Cases of Belt and Road Countries [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(11): 345-356.
[5]	DONG Lu-an, YE Xin. Interpretable Credit Risk Assessment Modeling Based on Improved Pedagogical Method [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2020, 28(9): 45-53.
[6]	LIU Jing-li, LI Jian-ping, XU Wei-xuan, SHI Yong. A Robust Weighted Adaptive L_p LS-SVM Method for Credit Risk Assessment [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2010, 18(5): 28-33.
[7]	YU Rui-feng, REN Yan-min, WANG Yu, LIU Li-wen. Research on Risk Assessment of Corporate Credit Based on Supply Chain [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2007, 15(3): 85-92.

Analysis of Investment Risk of Benefit-sharing Water Saving Management Contract Project

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 14

References 30

Related Articles 7

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0