基于公共和私营部门合作防灾投入的经济增长系统模型及其韧性研究

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1067

Abstract

Abstract:

In recent years， the Chinese government has proposed the integration of development and security to build a safer and more resilient China. Strengthening emergency response capabilities and enhancing system resilience are critical for effective disaster risk management. From the perspective of maximizing social welfare through public-private partnerships （PPP）， the centralized decision-making process between the public and private sectors in addressing disaster risks is explored， particularly the trade-offs between disaster preparedness investment， economic growth， and system resilience. By integrating the Solow economic growth model with system resilience theory， this paper develops a new dynamic disaster risk management model. The model incorporates two positive feedback loops and two negative feedback loops， enabling the evaluation of social welfare and analysis of policy effects. The main results show that：（1） The optimal system capital level and social welfare in the absence of disasters；（2） The optimal investment rate， disaster preparedness investment， system resilience， and social welfare level in the event of a disaster；（3） An optimization model for maximizing social welfare under disaster probability， including the investment rate， disaster preparedness investment， and system resilience level. The solutions to the objective function are analyzed and numerical simulations are conducted to explore the impact of key parameters on optimal decision-making. The results offer valuable insights for both the public and private sectors in collaboratively managing disaster risks， enhancing system resilience， and maximizing social welfare. The contribution of this study lies in providing a framework that integrates economic growth and resilience management， offering theoretical support for policymakers to optimize disaster preparedness strategies.

Key words: PPP, disaster preparedness investment, resilience, economic growth, disaster risk management

CLC Number:

C934

Huanhuan Liu,Jingjing Ding,Liang Liang, et al. Public-Private Partnership for Disaster Preparedness Investment, Resilience, and Economic Growth System Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(9): 1-10.

Figures/Tables 7

References 26

[1]	Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters， United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The human cost of disasters： An overview of the last 20 years （2000-2019）［EB/OL］.（2020-10-12）［2025-03-15］..
[2]	何德旭，史丹，张晓晶，等. 学习党的十九届六中全会精神笔谈［J］. 财贸经济， 2022， 43（1）： 5-26.
	He D X， Shi D， Zhang X J， et al. A written discussion on guidelines of the 6th plenary session of the 19th CPC central committee［J］. Finance & Trade Economics， 2022， 43（1）： 5-26.
[3]	United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. International day for disaster risk reduction （IDDRR） 2023［EB/OL］.（2023-08-08）［2025-03-15］ .
[4]	The World Economic Forum.Global risks report 2023 ［EB/OL］.（2023-01-11）［2025-03-15］..
[5]	Diehlmann F， Lüttenberg M， Verdonck L， et al. Public-private collaborations in emergency logistics： A framework based on logistical and game-theoretical concepts［J］. Safety Science， 2021， 141： 105301.
[6]	Hwang B G， Zhao X， Gay M J S. Public private partnership projects in Singapore： Factors， critical risks and preferred risk allocation from the perspective of contractors［J］. International Journal of Project Management， 2013， 31（3）： 424-433.
[7]	Buse K， Walt G. Global public-private partnerships： Part I—a new development in health？［J］. Bulletin of the World Health Organization， 2000， 78（4）： 549-561.
[8]	Guan P， Zhang J， Payyappalli V M， et al. Modeling and validating public–private partnerships in disaster management［J］. Decision Analysis， 2018， 15（2）： 55-71.
[9]	Boulouta I， Pitelis C N. Who needs CSR？ The impact of corporate social responsibility on national competitiveness［J］. Journal of Business Ethics， 2014， 119（3）： 349-364.
[10]	高若兰，周亦宁，刘继才. 基于前景理论的PPP项目投资者逆向选择问题研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2021， 29（1）： 36-46.
	Gao R L， Zhou Y N， Liu J C. Adverse selection of investors in PPP projects based on prospect theory［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2021， 29（1）： 36-46.
[11]	王秀芹，刘旸，王兵. PPP项目再融资收益分配研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2023， 31（8）： 51-60.
	Wang X Q， Liu Y， Wang B. Research on income distribution of PPP project refinancing［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2023， 31（8）： 51-60.
[12]	Krijger P H L， Hoek T A， Boersma S， et al. A public-private partnership model for COVID-19 diagnostics［J］. Nature Biotechnology， 2021， 39（10）： 1182-1184.
[13]	Busch N E， Givens A D. Public-private partnerships in homeland security： Opportunities and challenges［J］. Homeland Security Affairs， 2012， 8（1）： 1-24.
[14]	Hayes J K， Ebinger C K. The private sector and the role of risk and responsibility in securing the nation’s infrastructure［J］. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management， 2011， 8： 0000102202154773 551597.
[15]	Guan P， Zhuang J. Modeling public-private partnerships in disaster management via centralized and decentralized models［J］. Decision Analysis， 2015， 12（4）： 173-189.
[16]	Stumpf J， Besiou M， Wakolbinger T. Supply chain preparedness： How operational settings， product and disaster characteristics affect humanitarian responses［J］. Production and Operations Management， 2023， 32（8）： 2491-2509.
[17]	Bruneau M， Chang S E， Eguchi R T， et al. A framework to quantitatively assess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities［J］. Earthquake Spectra， 2003， 19（4）： 733-752.
[18]	Jiang Y， Ritchie B W， Verreynne M L. Building tourism organizational resilience to crises and disasters： A dynamic capabilities view［J］. International Journal of Tourism Research， 2019， 21（6）： 882-900.
[19]	Williams T A， Gruber D A， Sutcliffe K M， et al. Organizational response to adversity： Fusing crisis management and resilience research streams［J］. Academy of Management Annals， 2017， 11（2）： 733-769.
[20]	Solow R M. A contribution to the theory of economic growth［J］. The Quarterly Journal of Economics， 1956， 70（1）： 65-94.
[21]	Deng M， Wang L， Xu H， et al. Do reconstruction investments improve technological progress in an earthquake-stricken area？ Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake［J］. The Singapore Economic Review， 2022， 67（2）： 799-820.
[22]	Farajzadeh Z， Ghorbanian E， Tarazkar M H. The impact of climate change on economic growth： Evidence from a panel of Asian countries［J］. Environmental Development， 2023， 47： 100898.
[23]	Forrester J W. Industrial dynamics： A major breakthrough for decision makers［J］. Harvard Business Review， 1958， 36（4）： 37-66.
[24]	Song S， Wang C. Incentivizing catastrophe risk sharing［J］. IISE Transactions， 2020， 52（12）： 1358-1385.
[25]	Bakshi N， Kleindorfer P. Co-opetition and investment for supply-chain resilience［J］. Production and Operations Management， 2009， 18（6）： 583-603.
[26]	Corless R M， Gonnet G H， Hare D E G， et al. On the Lambert W function［J］. Advances in Computational Mathematics， 1996， 5（1）： 329-359.

参数/变量	定义
W	社会福利，由GDP扣除投资（包括防灾投资i_s ⋅K和资本投资i⋅K）后形成的消费进行折现并累积计算得出，此为目标函数
i_s	防灾投资比例，公共和私营部门合作的防灾投入占社会资本的比例，表示社会资本中有多少份额用于防灾投资，此为决策变量
i	资本投资比例，其为资本形成占社会资本的比例，表示社会资本中有多少份额用于资本投资
d	资本折旧比例，表示资本因老化、损耗或技术进步而失去价值的比例
μ	资本损失比例，衡量灾害导致的资本损失相对于社会资本存量的比例，直接反映灾害的经济影响
E	灾害损失值，即灾害造成的经济损失总额，通常取决于资本存量、灾害强度以及防灾投资水平
m	灾害强度，表示灾害事件的规模或严重程度，通常标准化为1以用于建模分析
η	韧性水平，用于衡量经济增长系统的韧性水平
K	资本存量，表示某一时刻全社会的总资本量
K₀	资本初始值，表示模型起始时的资本存量，用于设定初始经济状态
Y	国内生产总值（GDP）
A	生产率
L	劳动力
R	应急能力值，衡量社会在灾害发生时的应急响应能力
R₀	应急能力初始值，表示系统开始时的应急能力水平
e_r	应急能力衰退率，表示应急能力因时间、资源消耗或管理失效而下降的比例
α	产出系数，衡量资本和劳动力对经济产出的贡献程度，在生产函数中用于计算GDP
β	投资主体风险规避系数，用于描述投资主体对灾害风险的敏感程度
δ	灾害适应能力系数，衡量经济系统对灾害的整体适应能力，影响灾害损失的基础水平
ρ	折旧因子
p	灾害发生概率，表示某一时间点上灾害事件发生的可能性，0<p<1
t	时间，用于描述模型的动态变化过程，通常以年为单位

序号	灾害概率p	防灾投入率i_s	调整幅度M	系统韧性η	应急能力R	资本K	社会福利W
1	1	0.008	0.038	0.165	9.007	112.59	6722.20
2	0.9	0.007	0.036	0.156	7.920	113.14	6747.28
3	0.8	0.006	0.034	0.148	6.822	113.69	6773.75
4	0.7	0.005	0.032	0.139	5.713	114.25	6801.82
5	0.6	0.004	0.029	0.131	4.593	114.82	6831.81
6	0.5	0.002	0.025	0.113	2.319	115.96	6864.25
7	0.4	0.001	0.023	0.104	1.165	116.54	6900.17
8	0	0	—	0.095	—	117.12	7062.48

序号	灾害概率p	投资率i	防灾投入率i_s	调整幅度M	系统韧性η	应急能力R	资本K
1	1	0.1	0	0.042	0.095	—	608.58
2	1	0.2	0.002	0.038	0.113	4.24	211.98
3	1	0.3	0.008	0.038	0.165	9.007	112.59
4	1	0.4	0.018	0.026	0.244	12.82	71.21
5	0.5	0.1	0	0.042	0.095	—	608.58
6	0.5	0.2	0	0.032	0.095	—	215.16
7	0.5	0.3	0.002	0.025	0.113	2.319	115.96
8	0.5	0.4	0.009	0.019	0.173	6.62	73.57

Public-Private Partnership for Disaster Preparedness Investment, Resilience, and Economic Growth System Model

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 7

References 26

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	Haixiang Guo, Yunyu Cai, Yang Wu, Yuying Yang, Bo Liu. Evaluation of Organizational Resilience in Emergency Response Based on Complex Networks [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(7): 229-248.
[2]	Qiming Guo, Dan Lai, Yiding Wu. Vertical Integration in the Nonferrous Metal—New Energy Industry Chain and Corporate Resilience [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(7): 1-11.
[3]	Xujin Pu, Yimiao Wang, Yining Zhou, Guanghua Han. The Government Compensation and Enterprise Investment of PPP Project in Agricultural Products Processing [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(7): 359-368.
[4]	Shunyong Li, Maozeng Xu, Ligang Cui. Research on Sustainable Resilient Supply Chain Networks: A Review and Outlook [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(5): 272-284.
[5]	Xiaohong Chen, Ningyi Yang, Yanju Zhou. Co-construction Strategy of New Energy Vehicle Industry [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(4): 256-265.
[6]	Lu Liu, Lei Hu, Tao Jiang, Liwen Jiang. Selection, Conflict, and Mechanism Design of Platform Financing with Resilience Considerations [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(3): 57-68.
[7]	Xinya Liu, Jianjun Wu, Yunchao Qu, Hao Fu, Xin Yang, Tianlei Zhu. Optimization of Post-disaster Transport Network Restoration Strategies Considering Ground-Air Coordination [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(1): 256-267.
[8]	Jianpeng Mao, Jianfeng Lu, Jialin Song, Pengze Zhu. Research on the Assessment and Enhancement Methods for the Resilience of Supply and Demand Relationships in Cloud Manufacturing Services Considering Risk Sharing [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(1): 315-326.
[9]	Zilin Zeng, Bin Hu, Zhichao Wang, Xiaomeng Ma. The Resilience and Sudden Change Mechanism of Group Opinion in Online Community [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(9): 161-176.
[10]	Wenhe Chen, Zhipeng Chang, Hanting Zhou, Longsheng Cheng, Buyu Wen. A Deep Transfer Learning Evaluation Method for Community Resilience Governance Capacity under Major Epidemics [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(8): 100-111.
[11]	Wenqiang Shi, Zhaojun Kong, Mingyue Wang, Jie He. System Dynamics Analysis of Emergency Materials Mobilization Chain Resilience under the Coupling of Multiple Disruptions [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(8): 177-188.
[12]	Huiyu Zhou, Ruimin Li, Meng Xu. Mega Railway Projects and Regional Economic, Social and Cultural Development: A DID Test Based on Qinghai-Tibet Railway [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(8): 90-99.
[13]	Hua Zhang, Xin Gu. The Interplay of Supply Chain Digitalization and Manufacturing Firms' Competitive Advantage: The Moderating Effect of Supply Chain Resilience [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(4): 285-298.
[14]	Daqian Shi, Xueqin Li, Dandan Li. How Can Intelligent Supply Chain Improve Enterprise Performance: Study on Supply Chain Optimization Resilience Perspective [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(4): 325-334.
[15]	Yuzhen Hu, Jianxia Liu. Container Liner Disruption Recovery Based on Redundancy Elimination Time-band Network [J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(2): 118-130.