双碳背景下面向源荷互动的高分辨率新型电力系统建模

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1676

Abstract

Abstract:

Under carbon peaking and neutrality goals， coal power is being phased out. The rise of fluctuating renewable energy presents challenges in maintaining power system balance. And meeting peak load demands requires substantial investments in complementary facilities such as energy storage. However， long-term planning involving investments in backup capacity may result in excess power generation capacity. Research indicates that governments often increase power investments to address peak loads， despite their limited occurrence （5% or less annually）. Future research should focus on dynamically reducing peak loads through interactions between generation and load demand， while adapting to variable renewable energy output.Traditional power system capacity models neglect the evolving demand-side characteristics in new systems， inadequately capturing demand-side response interactions. Long-term models typically focus on reducing electricity consumption， missing the true source-demand dynamics. Short-term demand-side management often fails to impact capacity planning， potentially leading to the unnecessary planning of redundant backup capacity.The long-term capacity planning is combined with hourly operational simulations， creating a high-resolution model for the new power system with global optimization. It integrates demand-side management from electric vehicles， industrial， commercial， and residential sectors， thoroughly depicting the “generation-demand” interactive feedback mechanism. It relies on data from the China Statistical Yearbook， China Energy Statistical Yearbook， and Global Energy Monitor. Relevant parameters are extracted from reports by the State Grid Energy Research Institute and other expert studies.The findings indicate that， influenced by “generation-demand” interactions， China’s emission reduction trajectory has shifted from an initial rapid decline followed by a slower pace to a slower pace followed by accelerated reduction， aligning with a phased and steadily advancing transformation model. By 2060， China’s wind and solar capacity is expected to reach 5.75 to 6.48 billion kW， while coal power will maintain 300-500 million kW. Demand-side management is projected to replace 23% of energy storage and 38% of coal power capacity， reducing power system investment by 5.8 trillion CNY. Additionally， demand-side management will handle 9.5% of peak load pressures during peak hours. A planning methodology is proposed considering “generation-demand” interactions and demand-side management to guide the power system’s new development path， serving as a scientific reference for energy system transformation planning.

Key words: new power system, demand-side management, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, high-resolution modeling

CLC Number:

F206

Bo Wang,Jingyun Li,Zhaohua Wang, et al. High-Resolution Modeling of a New Power System with Source-Load Interactions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2026, 34(4): 309-318.

Figures/Tables 8

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情景	碳中和	政策约束	源荷互动
基准情景	×	×	×
无源荷互动碳中和情景	√	√	×
源荷互动下的碳中和情景	√	√	√

High-Resolution Modeling of a New Power System with Source-Load Interactions under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

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