Chinese Journal of Management Science ›› 2025, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 100-109.doi: 10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.0857
Previous Articles Next Articles
Received:2023-05-25
Revised:2023-08-19
Online:2025-12-25
Published:2025-12-25
Contact:
Guitao Wang
E-mail:wgtaht@163.com
CLC Number:
Guitao Wang. Research on the Mechanism of Local High-Quality Teaching Resources Empowering the Innovative Development of Military Academy Professional Education Based on the System Dynamics[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(12): 100-109.
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| 序号 | 方程 |
|---|---|
| 1 | 地方资源赋能发展水平=INTEG((发展水平提高率-发展水平降低率)/10,10) |
| 2 | 政策法规冗余程度=INTEG((冗余提升率-冗余降低率)/10,60) |
| 3 | 人才质量建设水平=INTEG((人才建设提升率+人才建设降低率+科研成果产出)/10,10) |
| 4 | 军地文化交融程度=INTEG((文化交融提升率-文化交融降低率)/10,20) |
| 5 | 岗位任职需求=INTEG((需求提升率-需求降低率-政策僵化程度)/10,50) |
| 6 | 发展水平提高率=人才质量建设对地方资源赋能发展影响系数×人才质量建设+军事任职需求对地方资源赋能发展影响系数×军事任职岗位需求+军地文化交融对地方资源赋能发展影响系数×军地文化交融程度 |
| 7 | 发展水平降低率=政策法规冗余对地方资源赋能发展影响系数×政策法规冗余程度 |
| 8 | 岗位需求提升率=服务云平台建设×EXP(1.2×奖励提升率)×服务云平台对任职岗位需求影响系数+战备需求对任职需求的影响度+任职岗位能力需求对任职需求的影响度+人才缺口对任职需求的影响度+人才强军战略对任职需求的影响度 |
| 9 | 冗余降低率=服务云平台建设×服务云平台对政策冗余影响系数+军地文化交融程度×军地文化交融对政策法规冗余影响系数+军地协调度对冗余的影响度+军地院校匹配机制对冗余的影响度+学科建设规划设计对冗余的影响度+监督评估对冗余的影响度+选拔机制对冗余的影响度 |
| 10 | 文化交融提升率=服务云平台对军地文化交融影响系数×EXP(1.5×科技成果增长率+研发投入增长率)×服务云平台建设+人才质量建设×人才质量建设对军地文化交融影响系数+军事任职岗位需求×军事任职岗位需求对军地文化交融影响系数+军地技术水平差距对文化交融的影响度+合作院校数量对文化交融的影响度+教学基地互用对文化交融的影响度+教育理念基础对文化交融的影响度+资源条件基础对文化交融的影响度 |
| 11 | 人才建设提升率=服务云平台建设水平×EXP(人才总量提升率+人才晋升率)×服务云平台对人才质量建设影响系数+人才晋升机制对人才质量建设的影响度+保障政策对人才质量建设的影响度+军事任职岗位需求×军事任职岗位需求对人才建设影响系数+合作院校层次对人才质量建设的影响度+培养链条紧密对人才质量建设的影响度+奖惩机制对人才质量建设的影响度+科研成果产出+科研经费投入对人才质量建设的影响度 |
| 12 | 人才建设降低率=人才流失增长率 |
| 13 | 战备需求对任职需求的影响度=战备需求×战备需求对任职需求的影响系数 |
| 14 | 人才强军战略对任职需求的影响度=人才强军战略×人才强军战略对任职需求的影响系数 |
| 15 | 人才缺口对任职需求的影响度=人才缺口×人才缺口对任职需求的影响系数 |
| 16 | 任职岗位能力需求对任职需求的影响度=任职岗位能力需求×任职岗位能力需求对任职需求的影响系数 |
| 17 | 安全保密对政策僵化影响=安全保密×安全保密对政策僵化影响系数 |
| 18 | 资源统筹对政策僵化影响=资源统筹×资源统筹对政策僵化影响系数 |
| 19 | 运行保障对政策僵化影响=运行保障×运行保障对政策僵化影响系数 |
| 20 | 监督评估对冗余的影响度=监督评估×监督评估对冗余的影响系数 |
| 21 | 军地协调度对冗余的影响度=军地协调度×军地协调度对冗余的影响系数 |
| 22 | 学科建设规划设计对冗余的影响度=学科建设规划设计×学科建设规划设计对冗余的影响系数 |
| 23 | 军地院校匹配机制对冗余的影响度=军地院校匹配机制×军地院校匹配机制对冗余的影响系数 |
| 24 | 选拔机制对冗余的影响度=选拔机制×选拔机制对冗余的影响系数 |
| 25 | 资源条件基础对文化交融的影响度=资源条件基础×资源条件基础对文化交融的影响系数 |
| 26 | 军地技术水平差距对文化交融的影响度=军地技术水平差距×军地技术水平差距对文化交融的影响系数 |
| 27 | 教育理念基础对文化交融的影响度=教育理念基础×教育理念基础对文化交融的影响系数 |
| 28 | 教学基地互用对文化交融的影响度=教学基地互用×教学基地互用对文化交融的影响系数 |
| 29 | 合作院校数量对文化交融的影响度=合作院校数量×合作院校数量对文化交融的影响系数 |
| 30 | 军事资源对科研成果产出的影响=军事资源×军事资源对科研成果产出的影响系数 |
| 31 | 项目质量成果评价对科研成果产出的影响=项目质量成果评价对科研成果产出的影响系数×项目质量评价体系 |
| 32 | 技术成果共享度对科研成果产出的影响=技术成果共享度×技术成果共享度对科研成果产出的影响系数 |
| 33 | 奖惩机制对人才质量建设的影响度=奖惩机制×奖惩机制对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 34 | 培养链条紧密对人才质量建设的影响度=培养链条紧密程度×培养链条紧密对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 35 | 科研经费投入对人才质量建设的影响度=科研经费投入×科研经费投入对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 36 | 保障政策对人才质量建设的影响度=保障政策×保障政策对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 37 | 人才晋升机制对人才质量建设的影响度=人才晋升机制×人才晋升机制对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 38 | 合作院校层次对人才质量建设的影响度=合作院校层次×合作院校层次对人才质量建设的影响系数 |
| 39 | 服务云平台建设=0.4×任职教育地方资源赋能发展水平+0.3×军地文化交融+0.3×人才质量建设 |
| 40 | 政策僵化=政策法规冗余×0.7+(安全保密对政策僵化影响+资源统筹对政策僵化影响+运行保障对政策僵化影响)×0.3 |
| 41 | 科研成果产出=军地文化交融×0.4+(军事资源对科研成果产出的影响+技术成果共享度对科研成果产出的影响+项目质量成果评价对科研成果产出的影响)×0.6 |
"
| 路线设定 | 模拟情境 | 内容说明 |
|---|---|---|
赋能培养人才总量主导 文化交融和政策为辅(A) | 情境一(A1) | 维持基本方案中各项指标目标水平不变,赋能培养人才总量提升↑5% |
| 情境二(A2) | 赋能培养人才总量提升↑20%,科研经费投入增加↑5%,人才保障提升↑10%,政策选拔机制提升↑10%,科技成果增长率提升↑5% | |
| 情境三(A3) | 赋能培养人才总量提升↑10%,科研经费投入增加↑5%,人才保障提升↑5%,政策选拔机制提升↑20%,科技成果增长率提升↑10% | |
赋能培养人才总量主导 政策为辅(B) | 情境一(B1) | 维持基本方案中各项指标目标水平不变,人才总量提升↑5% |
| 情境二(B2) | 赋能培养人才总量提升↑10%,科研经费投入增加↑5%,人才保障提升↑2%,政策选拔机制提升↑10%,资源统筹提升↑5% | |
| 情境三(B3) | 赋能培养人才总量提升↑5%,科研经费投入增加↑3%,人才保障提升↑2%,政策选拔机制提升↑5%,资源统筹提升↑10% | |
文化交融主导 人才和政策为辅(C) | 情境一(C1) | 维持基本方案中各项指标目标水平不变,科技成果增长率提升↑5%,研发投入增长率提升↑5% |
| 情境二(C2) | 科技成果增长率提升↑10%,研发投入增长率提升↑10%,赋能培养人才总量提升↑5%,资源统筹增加↑3%,选拔机制提升↑3% | |
| 情境三(C3) | 科技成果增长率提升↑5%,研发投入增长率提升↑5%,赋能培养人才总量提升↑3%,选拔机制提升↑5%,资源统筹增加↑10% | |
文化交融主导 政策为辅(D) | 情境一(D1) | 维持基本方案中各项指标目标水平不变,科技成果增长率提升↑5%,研发投入增长率提升↑5% |
| 情境二(D2) | 科技成果增长率提升↑10%,研发投入增长率提升↑10%,赋能培养人才总量提升↑2%,资源统筹增加↑5%,选拔机制提升↑5% | |
| 情境三(D3) | 科技成果增长率提升↑10%,研发投入增长率提升↑10%,赋能培养人才总量提升↑2%,资源统筹增加↑5%,选拔机制提升↑10%,军地院校匹配机制提升↑10% |
"
模拟 时间 | 地方优质教育资源赋能军队院校任职教育发展水平模拟值 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 | A2 | A3 | B1 | B2 | B3 | C1 | C2 | C3 | D1 | D2 | D3 | |
| 2022 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 | 20.1833 |
| 2023 | 20.5391 | 20.5599 | 20.5725 | 20.5685 | 20.5564 | 20.5562 | 20.5298 | 20.5590 | 20.5277 | 20.5354 | 20.5489 | 20.5522 |
| 2024 | 21.0765 | 21.1628 | 21.1183 | 21.0999 | 21.0856 | 21.1123 | 21.0595 | 21.1180 | 21.0839 | 21.0956 | 21.0978 | 21.0918 |
| 2025 | 21.8047 | 21.9669 | 21.8905 | 21.829 | 21.8591 | 21.8631 | 21.8037 | 21.8720 | 21.8255 | 21.8053 | 21.8713 | 21.8574 |
| 2026 | 22.7353 | 22.9717 | 22.8624 | 22.7436 | 22.8225 | 22.7808 | 22.7119 | 22.8470 | 22.7811 | 22.739 | 22.7695 | 22.7987 |
| 2027 | 23.8471 | 24.2064 | 23.9941 | 23.8434 | 23.9217 | 23.8931 | 23.8219 | 23.9780 | 23.8649 | 23.8223 | 23.9172 | 23.9283 |
| 2028 | 25.2765 | 25.8431 | 25.5352 | 25.3141 | 25.4551 | 25.3948 | 25.2472 | 25.4990 | 25.3339 | 25.3038 | 25.4391 | 25.3966 |
| 2029 | 26.9024 | 27.7094 | 27.2599 | 26.9454 | 27.1378 | 27.0354 | 26.8744 | 27.2540 | 27.0453 | 26.9099 | 27.0858 | 27.1159 |
| 2030 | 28.8588 | 29.9203 | 29.2929 | 28.8856 | 29.1190 | 28.9403 | 28.8799 | 29.2820 | 28.9849 | 28.8396 | 29.0818 | 29.1114 |
| 2031 | 31.1529 | 32.5618 | 31.7825 | 31.1596 | 31.5073 | 31.2762 | 31.1251 | 31.7390 | 31.3381 | 31.1305 | 31.4271 | 31.5211 |
| 2032 | 33.7118 | 35.5624 | 34.4985 | 33.7425 | 34.262 | 33.8623 | 33.7614 | 34.4430 | 33.9765 | 33.7077 | 34.1467 | 34.1943 |
| 2033 | 36.7294 | 39.0653 | 37.7071 | 36.7209 | 37.2746 | 36.8795 | 36.7003 | 37.6020 | 37.0856 | 36.7082 | 37.3528 | 37.2691 |
| 2034 | 40.2058 | 43.1713 | 41.5148 | 40.1936 | 41.0063 | 40.4250 | 40.2573 | 41.2680 | 40.6368 | 40.1818 | 40.8832 | 40.9714 |
| 2035 | 43.7176 | 47.2772 | 45.2599 | 43.6664 | 44.6566 | 43.9010 | 43.6630 | 45.0640 | 44.1879 | 43.7052 | 44.5509 | 44.5733 |
| 年均变化率(%) | 6.126 | 6.767 | 6.409 | 6.116 | 6.299 | 6.160 | 6.115 | 6.374 | 6.213 | 6.123 | 6.280 | 6.284 |
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