基于竞争失效和任务失效的隐性故障系统视情维修决策

doi:10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2024.1568

Abstract

Abstract:

Systems with hidden failures typically do not perform missions continuously， but mission failures in such systems can lead to substantial economic losses and severe damage. Condition-based maintenance （CBM） is an effective strategy to enhance system reliability and mitigate the risk of hidden failure. A CBM model is developed for systems subject to competing and hidden failures by incorporating mission failure behavior and a multiple inspection policy. The arrival of system missions follows a Poisson process， and the outcome of mission execution depends on the system's state. Periodic minor inspections， which are imperfect， are scheduled to detect the system’s state， while major inspections， which are perfect， are conducted only upon mission failure. Under this policy， all the possible scenarios for minor inspection preventive renewal， major inspection preventive renewal， minor inspection corrective renewal， major inspection corrective renewal， and age-based preventive renewal are analyzed， and the probabilities of each scenario occurring are derived. Consequently， the CBM model is formulated using the Renewal Reward Theorem， aiming to minimize the long-run expected cost rate， with the minor inspection interval serving as the decision variable. Finally， the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed maintenance model are validated through comparisons with two other models. The results indicate that considering mission failure due to defective systems is crucial when constructing maintenance models for multi-state systems with hidden failures， and that multiple inspection policy offers greater cost advantages than single inspection policy when the minor inspection cost is below a threshold level.

Key words: competing failures, hidden failures, mission failures, multiple inspections, condition-based maintenance

CLC Number:

O212

Mengying Han,Li Yang,Qingan Qiu, et al. Condition-based Maintenance Model for a System with Hidden Failures Based on Competing Failures and Mission Failures[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2025, 33(12): 226-238.

Figures/Tables 18

$a 1$	$b 1$	$a 2$	$a 3$	$α$	$β$	$λ$	$μ W$	$σ W$	$W m$
0.2	0.8	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.6	5	1	0.2	1.2

$C i$	$C I$	$C p$	$C f$	$C s$
0.5	2	1	1.2	10

参数

取值

T *

E C R (T *)

E C R (T *)

的平均单位增量

参数

取值

T *

E C R (T *)

E C R (T *)

的平均单位增量

C i

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2.0764

2.2261

2.3637

2.4854

2.5992

1.4970

1.3760

1.2170

1.1380

C I

1.5

2.5

0.8

0.7

2.2642

2.3140

2.3637

2.4106

2.4554

0.0996

0.0994

0.0938

0.0896

C p

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.2

0.7

0.8

2.2322

2.2767

2.3213

2.3637

2.4019

0.2225

0.2230

0.2120

0.2360

C f

1.2

2.4

1.6

1.8

0.8

2.3020

2.3637

2.4255

2.4872

2.5489

0.3085

0.3090

0.3085

C s

0.8

0.7

0.6

1.9459

2.1646

2.3637

2.5449

2.7202

0.1094

0.0996

0.0906

0.0877

References 31

[1]	Enquiry Committee. Report of the enquiry committee on grid disturbance in Northern Region on 30th July 2012 and in Northern， Eastern & North-Eastern Region on 31st July 2012［R］. Working Paper， Enquiry Committee， 2012.
[2]	薛士敏，孙文鹏，高峰，等. 基于精确隐性故障模型的输电系统连锁故障风险评估［J］. 电网技术， 2016， 40（4）： 1012-1017.
	Xue S M， Sun W P， Gao F， et al. Risk assessment of transmission system cascading failure based on accurate hidden failure model［J］. Power System Technology， 2016， 40（4）： 1012-1017.
[3]	Qiu Q， Cui L， Kong D. Availability and maintenance modeling for a two-component system with dependent failures over a finite time horizon［J］. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers， Part O： Journal of Risk and Reliability， 2019， 233（2）： 200-210.
[4]	Qiu Q A， Cui L R， Shen J Y， et al. Availability and maintenance modeling for systems subject to dependent hard and soft failures［J］. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry， 2018， 34（4）： 513-527.
[5]	Peng R， Liu B， Zhai Q， et al. Optimal maintenance strategy for systems with two failure modes［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2019， 188： 624-632.
[6]	Li Y， Zio E. Uncertainty analysis of the adequacy assessment model of a distributed generation system［J］. Renewable Energy， 2012， 41： 235-244.
[7]	李彦夫，门天立. 列车车轮多边形磨损及其噪音研究综述［J］.振动测试与诊断，2019，39（6）： 1143-1152+1355.
	Li Y F， Men T L. An overview of polygonal wear and generated noise of train wheels［J］. Journal of Vibration， Measurement & Diagnosis， 2019， 39（6）： 1143-1152+1355.
[8]	Han M， Yang J， Zhao X. Joint optimization of inspection， maintenance， and spare ordering policy considering defective products loss［J］. Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics， 2021， 32（5）： 1167-1179.
[9]	Zhao X， Li R， Han H，et al. Condition-based switching， loading， and age-based maintenance policies for standby systems［J］. European Journal of Operational Research， 2025， 321（2）： 565-585.
[10]	沈杨. 电力系统继电保护可靠性评估［J］. 科技与创新， 2016（20）： 82.
	Shen Y. Reliability evaluation of relay protection in power system ［J］. Science and Technology & Innovation， 2016（20）： 82.
[11]	王文彬，赵斐，彭锐. 基于三阶段故障过程的多重点检策略优化模型［J］. 系统工程理论与实践， 2014， 34（1）： 223-232.
	Wang W B， Zhao F， Peng R. Modeling of the optimal multiple inspection policy based on a three-stage failure process［J］. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice， 2014， 34（1）： 223-232.
[12]	Driessen J P C， Peng H， van Houtum G J. Maintenance optimization under non-constant probabilities of imperfect inspections［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2017， 165： 115-123.
[13]	Zhang F， Shen J， Liao H， et al. Optimal preventive maintenance policy for a system subject to two-phase imperfect inspections［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2021， 205： 107254.
[14]	Qi F， Huang M. Optimal condition-based maintenance policy for systems with mutually dependent competing failure［J］. Quality and Reliability Engineering International， 2023， 39（5）： 1831-1847.
[15]	Cao Y. Modeling the effects of dependence between competing failure processes on the condition-based preventive maintenance policy［J］. Applied Mathematical Modelling， 2021， 99： 400-417.
[16]	张晓红，何于港，张剑飞，等. 相依多模失效下冷贮备系统最优切换及视情维护决策［J］. 控制与决策， 2023， 38（9）： 2672-2680.
	Zhang X H， He Y G， Zhang J F， et al. Optimal switching and condition based maintenance decision of cold standby system subject to dependent multimode failures［J］. Control and Decision， 2023， 38（9）： 2672-2680.
[17]	Moubray J. Reliability－centered maintenance［M］. 2th ed. New York： Industrial Press， 1997.
[18]	王玉磊，应黎明，陶海洋，等. 基于效能-成本的智能变电站二次设备运维策略优化［J］. 电力自动化设备， 2016， 36（6）： 182-188.
	Wang Y L， Ying L M， Tao H Y， et al. Operation-maintenance strategy optimization based on efficiency-cost sensitivity analysis for secondary equipment of intelligent substation［J］. Electric Power Automation Equipment， 2016， 36（6）： 182-188.
[19]	张延静，马义中，沈静远，等. 具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统检测策略研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2021， 29（12）： 237-248.
	Zhang Y J， Ma Y Z， Shen J Y， et al. Inspection strategy for a multi-state competing failure system with hidden failures［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2021， 29（12）： 237-248.
[20]	Zhang Y， Shen J， Ma Y. An optimal preventive maintenance policy for a two-stage competing-risk system with hidden failures［J］. Computers & Industrial Engineering， 2021， 154： 107135.
[21]	Christer A H， Waller W M. Reducing production downtime using delay-time analysis［J］. Journal of the Operational Research Society，1984， 35（6）： 499-512.
[22]	郑睿，吕文元. 基于时间延迟理论的预防维修模型及案例研究［J］. 中国管理科学， 2010， 18（2）： 48-54.
	Zheng R， Lv W Y. Modelling of preventive maintenance based on the delay time theory and case study［J］. Chinese Journal of Management Science， 2010， 18（2）： 48-54.
[23]	杨建华，韩梦莹. 基于延迟时间理论的备件维修多目标优化模型［J］. 系统工程与电子技术， 2019， 41（8）： 1903-1912.
	Yang J H， Han M Y. Multi-objective optimization model for spare parts maintenance based on delay-time theory［J］. Systems Engineering and Electronics， 2019， 41（8）： 1903-1912.
[24]	Rodrigues A J S， Cavalcante C A V， Lee C G. A general inspection and replacement policy for protection systems subject to shocks with state dependent effect［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2024， 251： 110397.
[25]	Qiu Q， Maillart L M， Prokopyev O A， et al. Optimal condition-based mission abort decisions［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability， 2023， 72（1）： 408-425.
[26]	Qiu Q， Li R， Zhao X. Failure risk management： Adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions［J］. Risk Analysis， 2025， 45（2）： 421-440.
[27]	Peng R， He X， Zhong C， et al. Preventive maintenance for heterogeneous parallel systems with two failure modes［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety， 2022， 220： 108310.
[28]	Han M， Ma Z， Ma S， et al. Joint optimization of condition-based maintenance and spare ordering strategy for a multistate competing failure system［J］. IEEE Access， 2023， 11： 37006-37020.
[29]	Ross S M. Introduction to Probability Models［M］. 11th ed. Amsterdam： Academic Press， 2014.
[30]	Tavangar M， Asadi M. A study on the mean past lifetime of the components of （n - k+1）-out-of-n system at the system level［J］. Metrika， 2010， 72（1）： 59-73.
[31]	徐志超，李晓明，杨玲君. 基于全寿命周期成本的继电保护装置退出时间评估［J］. 电力系统自动化， 2013， 37（21）： 151-155.
	Xu Z C， Li X M， Yang L J. Evaluation for exit time of relay protection devices based on life cycle cost［J］. Automation of Electric Power Systems， 2013， 37（21）： 151-155.

Condition-based Maintenance Model for a System with Hidden Failures Based on Competing Failures and Mission Failures

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 18

References 31

Related Articles 1

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0